Barron\'s - 16.03.2020

M38 BARRON’S March 16, 2020

FEDERALRESERVEDATABANK

Prev. Year

MemberBank Latest Week Ago

ReserveChgs.(Mil.$) Week Change Change

OneweekendedMar11:

U.S.Gov'tsecurities:

Bought outright 3,890,132 + 25,125 + 104,634

Federalagencysecur:

Bought outright 2,347 .... -62

Reservebankcredit:

Primary Credit 8 -3 + 5

Secondary Credit .... .... ....

Seasonal Credit .... .... -9

Float -194 + 297 -37

OtherF.R.Assets 21,218 + 1,706 -1,508

TotalFedCredit# 4,221,590 + 77,249 + 289,898

Goldstock 11,041 .... ....

SDRCertif.Accounts 5,200 .... ....

Treas.Curr.Outst. 50,211 + 14 + 372

Total 4,309,229 + 77,795 + 290,822

Currencyincirc 1,814,071 + 10,550 + 94,186

Treas.CashHldgs 307 + 18 -24

Treas.FedDeposits 380,556 + 6,041 + 134,584

ForeignFedDeposits 5,355 + 168 + 112

OtherFedDeposits 90,217 + 13,793 + 29,688

OtherFRliab/cap 46,136 + 1,727 + 551

Totalfactors 2,564,704 + 32,125 + 250,245

ReservesF.R.banks 1,744,525 + 45,670 + 40,577

FgnholdU.S.debt 3,439,994 -17,681 -32,178

ReserveAggr(Mil.$sa) Latest Prev. Wk.% Year

TwoWksEnded Mar11: Wk. Week Chg. Ago

TotalReserves: 1,788,394 1,709,136 4.64 1,776,276

Nonborrowed Res # 1,788,384 1,709,134 4.64 1,776,265

Required Res ## 212,269 211,982 0.14 193,591

ExcessReserves: 1,576,125 1,497,154 5.27 1,582,685

Borrowed Reserves 10 2 400.00 12

Free Reserves ### 1,576,115 1,497,152 5.27 1,582,673

MonetaryBase 3,530,486 3,438,834 2.67 3,430,136

#Fedsupplyofpermanentreservesprovided.

##Demandforreservestobackdeposits.

### Free reserves equal excess reserves minus discount window bor-

rowingsotherthanextendedcredit.Freereservesareshorthandmethod

ofdeterminingthedegreeofeaseofFedpolicy,orwhentheyarenegative

netborrowedreserves,tightness.

GOLD&SILVERPRICES

Year

Handy&Harman 3/13 3/6 Ago

Gold,troyounce 1562.80 1683.65 1303.50

Silver,troyounce 14.78 17.17 15.32

Baseforpricinggoldandsilvercontentsofshipmentsandfor

makingrefiningsettlement.

Price Premium Premium

Coins $ %

Krugerrand 1577.58 60.68 4.00

MapleLeaf 1592.75 75.85 5.00

MexicanPeso 1836.93 8.00 0.44

AustriaCrown 1489.87 3.00 5.00

AustriaPhil 1592.75 75.85 5.00

U.S.Eagles 1592.75 75.85 5.00

Premiumistheamountoverthevalueofthegoldcontentinthe

coin.SourceManfra,Tordella&Brookes,Inc.

Bullionspotgoldprice1516.90

BARRON'SGOLDMININGINDEX

12-Month Year Week%

High Low 3/12 3/5 Ago Chg.

614.99410.95 Gold mining 429.03 576.27439.39 –25.55

INVESTORSENTIMENTREADINGS

High bullish readings in the Consensus stock index or in the

Market Vane stock index usually are signs of Market tops; low

ones, market bottoms.

Last 2Weeks 3Weeks

Week Ago Ago

ConsensusIndex

Consensus Bullish Sentiment 47% 53% 65%

Source:ConsensusInc.,P.O.Box520526,Independence,Mo.

Historicaldataavailableat(816)[email protected]

AAIIIndex

Bullish 29.7% 38.7% 30.4%

Bearish 51.3 39.6 39.1

Neutral 19.0 21.6 30.4

Source:AmericanAssociationofIndividualInvestors,

625N.MichiganAve.,Chicago,Ill.60611(312)280-0170.

MarketVane

Bullish Consensus 33% 38% 42%

Source:MarketVane,P.O.Box90490,

Pasadena,CA91109(626)395-7436.

TIMGroupMarketSentiment

Indicator 40.8% 49.0% 51.3%

Source:TIMGroup,3ColumbusCircle,Suite1592

NewYork,NY10019(844)[email protected]

WEEKLYBONDSTATISTICS

Last Prev. YrAgo

Week Week Week

NewOfferings,(mil$)(v)

Corporate (z) 15,111 r37,749 34,485

Municipal (z) 5,851 r8,243 7,144

BestGradeBonds-y(Barron's index of 10 high-grade

corporate bonds.)

2.87 1.88 3.70

Interm-GradeBonds-y(Barron's index of 10

medium-grade corporate bonds.)

3.90 3.06 4.51

ConfidenceIndex(High-grade index divided by inter-

mediate-grade index; decline in latter vs. former generally

indicates rising confidence, pointing to higher stocks.)

73.5 61.5 82.0

OtherConfidenceIndicators:

BloombergBarclaysUSLongTreasury*(This

index measures the performance of fixed-rate, nominal US

Treasuries with at least 10 years to maturity. Jan. 1, 1973=100.)

4652.88 4960.27 3504.56

BloombergBarclaysUSCredit(This index

includes all publicly issued, fixed-rate, non-convertible, invest-

ment-grade, dollar-denominated, SEC-registered corporate

debt. All issues have at least one year to maturity and outstand-

ing par value of at least $250 million. Jan. 1, 1973=0.) (v)

3069.56 3241.08 2785.59

RyanLabsTreasuryIndex(Index of total return from

active Treasury notes and bonds. Dec. 31, 1996=100.)

329.79 325.54 276.41

Last Prev. YrAgo

Week Week Week

BondBuyer20BondIndex(Index of yields of 20

general obligation municipal bonds.)

2.57 2.31 4.04

BondBuyerMunicipalBondIndex(Index of 40

actively-traded tax-exempt bonds; component issues are

changed regularly to keep the index a current picture of the

market. Source: The Bond Buyer

3.70 3.40 3.98

Stock/BondYieldGap-s(Difference between yield on

highest-grade corporate bonds and yield on stocks on the DJIA.)

–.06 +.63 –1.45

YieldonDJEqualWeightUSCorpBondIdx:

Corp Bonds, (y) 3.00 2.21 3.98

v-WeekendedThursday.y-Yieldtomaturity,weekendedThursday.

z-Source:Refinitiv.*BarclaysT-BondIndexdiscontinuedbyfirm.

MONEYSUPPLY

MoneySupply(Bil.$) Latest Prev. Yr.AgoYOY%Chg

WeekendedMarch2

M1(seas.adjusted) 4,045.7r3,987.83,767.3 7.39

M1(notadjusted) 4,099.4r3,963.93,786.5 8.26

M2(seas.adjusted) 15,622.2r15,533.414,490.6 7.81

M2(notadjusted) 15,613.5r15,436.914,540.3 7.38

WeekendedMarch4

M1Mult.Replacement(St.LouisFed) 1.161 1.153 1.105 5.07

MonthlyMoneySupply

MonthendedFebruary

M1(seas.adjusted) 4,019.3 3,982.2 3,759.4 6.91

M2(seas.adjusted) 15,535.415,438.814,477.8 7.30

GOLD PERFORMANCE

-10

0

10

20

30

40

A M J J A S O N D J FM

Barron's Gold Mining Index (429.03)

s

Handy & Harman Gold Price

s

Melted Gold:There were no refuges

from the week’s tumbling markets, as

gold fell 7.2% to $1,563 an ounce.

ARMSINDEX

TheArmsindex,alsoknownastheshorttermtradingindex,isanumber

derivedbydividingonequotientintoanotherquotient.Thenumeratorin

the index is the number of advancing stocks divided by the number of

declining stocks. As of 3/14/11, the denominator in the index is now the

compositevolumeofadvancingstocksdividedbythecompositevolumeof

decliningstocks.

Daily 3/9 3/10 3/11 3/12 3/13

NYSE .96 .39 1.59 .51 .89

NYSEAmerican .17 1.29 .29 .11 1.42

Nasdaq .39 .67 .53 .55 .70

SouthAfrica(Rand) .0614 .0638 16.2771 15.6748

SouthKorea(Won) .0008252 .0008412 1211.78 1188.80

SriLanka(Rupee) .0054 .0055 184.4000 182.0000

Sweden(Krona) .1030 .1064 9.7050 9.3966

Switzerland(Franc) 1.0521 1.0675 .9505 .9368

Taiwan(Dollar) .03317 .03343 30.144 29.915

Thailand(Baht) .03138 .03182 31.870 31.430

Turkey(New Lira)-d .1579 .1641 6.3337 6.0954

Ukraine(Hryvnia) .0383 .0400 26.1356 24.9864

U.K.(Pound) 1.2284 1.3047 .8141 .7665

Uruguay(Peso) ...... .. ...... .. ...... .. ...... ..

Financial .02304 .02535 43.410 39.450

Venezuela(Bolivar)

----

Euro 1.1104 1.1286 .9006 .8861

SpecialDrawingRights(SDR)arebasedonexchangeratesfortheU.S.,

British,andJapanesecurrencies.Source:InternationalMonetaryFund.

a-RussianCentralBankrate.b-governmentrate.d-rebasedasofJan.1,

2005.y-floatingrate.

Market Laboratory

MONEYRATES

Latest Prev. YrAgo

Week Week

DiscountRate(NY) 1.75 1.75 3.00

PrimeRate(base) 4.25 4.25 5.50

FedFundsRate
Avg effective offer 1.12 1.08 2.42
Avg weekly auction-c 1.29 1.58 2.40

T-BillsRate
13 weeks, Coupon Yield 0.396 1.174 2.460
13 weeks, Auction Rate 0.390 1.155 2.405
26 weeks, Coupon Yield 0.406 1.029 2.527
26 weeks, Auction Rate 0.400 1.010 2.455
Avg weekly auction-c 0.76 1.43 2.41

BrokerCallRate 3.00 3.00 4.25

BankersAcceptances
1 month 1.13 0.95 2.48
2 months 1.13 0.90 2.53
3 months 1.23 0.90 2.63
6 months 1.30 0.88 2.73

EuroLiborRate
1 month -0.527 -0.573 -0.414
3 months -0.427 -0.518 -0.342
6 months -0.380 -0.470 -0.298
12 months -0.298 -0.402 -0.174

LiborInterbankRate
1 month 0.80 0.86 2.48
3 months 0.84 0.90 2.63
6 months 0.82 0.88 2.67
12 months 0.82 0.85 2.84

ForeignPrimeRates
Canada 3.45 3.95 3.95
Germany 0.00 0.00 0.00
Japan 1.475 1.475 1.475
Switzerland 0.50 0.50 0.50
Britain 0.75 0.75 0.75

OtherMoneyRates
Fannie Mae Home Loan:
30-Year Fixed Conv 2.99 2.40 3.89
Bank money market-z 0.20 0.21 0.23
Interest Checking-z 0.07 0.07 0.08
6-Month Certif-z 0.41 0.48 0.59
12-Month Certif-z 0.67 0.75 0.98
30 Month Accounts-z 0.71 0.78 1.18
5-Year Certificates-z 0.96 1.10 1.51
U.S. Savings EE Bonds:
Long-Term (5yrs+) 0.10 0.10 0.10

c-Annualizedyields,adjustedforconstantmaturity,reportedby
theFederalReserveonaweeklyaveragebasis.
Sources:TullettPreboninformation,Ltd.
Factset.z-Bankrate.com.

0.95

0.85

0.75

0.65

0.55

0.45

4.95

4.10

3.25

2.40

1.55

0.70

S&P 100 CBOE

M A M J J A S O N D J F M

CBOE PUT/CALL RATIO vs S&P 100

Source:CBOE

Readings in the CBOE equity put-call ratio of 60:100

and in the S&P 100 of 125:100 are considered bullish,

for instance. Bearish signals flash when the equity

put-call level reaches the vicinity of 30:100 and the

index ratio hits 75:100.

S&P 100

CBOE s

s

FOREIGNEXCHANGE

Friday,March13,2020

TheNewYorkforeignexchangemid-rangeratesarequotedat5

p.m. Eastern time by Tullet. Retail transactions provide fewer

units of foreign currency per dollar.

Foreign Foreign U.S.$in U.S.$in

Currency Currency Foreign Foreign

inU.S.$ inU.S.$ Currency Currency

Country Fri. LastFri. Fri. LastFri.

Argentina(Peso)-y .0159 .0160 62.9000 62.4412

Australia(Dollar) .6193 .6638 1.6147 1.5065

Bahrain(Dinar) 2.6489 2.6551 .3775 .3766

Brazil(Real) .2058 .2161 4.8595 4.6273

Bulgaria(Lev) .5657 .5775 1.7678 1.7317

Canada(Dollar) .7243 .7456 1.3807 1.3413

Chile(Peso) .001192 .001210 839.00 826.60

China(Renminbi) .1427 .1443 7.0082 6.9320

Colombia(Peso) .0002486 .0002786 4023.01 3588.83

Croatia(Kuna) .1465545 .1502359 6.82 6.66

Czech.Rep.(Koruna) ...... .. ...... .. ...... .. ...... ..

Commercial rate .04220 .04446 23.697 22.494

Denmark(Krone) .1486 .1511 6.7290 6.6191

Ecuador(US Dollar) 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000

Egypt(Pound)-y .0637 .0639 15.7007 15.6400

HongKong(Dollar) .1287 .1287 7.7695 7.7709

Hungary(Forint) .003277 .003367 305.18 297.00

Iceland(Krona) .007404 .007884 135.07 126.84

India(Rupee) .01354 .01351 73.840 74.005

Indonesia(Rupiah) .0000677 .0000703 14770 14230

Israel(Shekel) .2728 .2869 3.6662 3.4858

Japan(Yen) .009261 .009497 107.98 105.29

Kazakhstan(Tenge) .002460 .002608 406.55 383.41

Kuwait(Dinar) 3.2457 3.2731 .3081 .3055

Macau( Pataca) .1250 .1248 7.9972 8.0097

Malaysia(Ringgit)-b .2337 .2397 4.2785 4.1720

Mexico(Peso) ...... .. ...... .. ...... .. ...... ..

Floating rate .0456 .0497 21.9168 20.1091

NewZealand(Dollar) .6068 .6346 1.6480 1.5758

Norway(Krone) .0994 .1080 10.0583 9.2570

Oman(Rial) 2.5982 2.5984 .3849 .3849

Pakistan(Rupee) .00636 .00648 157.150 154.405

Peru(new Sol)

Philippines(Peso) .01958 .01977 51.070 50.570

Poland(Zloty) .2538 .2626 3.9403 3.8081

Qatar(Rial) .2754 .2743 3.6312 3.6455

Russia(Ruble)-a .01377 .01458 72.623 68.579

SaudiArabia(Riyal) .2664 .2665 3.7533 3.7524

Singapore(Dollar) .7070 .7256 1.4145 1.3782

Foreign Foreign U.S.$in U.S.$in

Currency Currency Foreign Foreign

inU.S.$ inU.S.$ Currency Currency

Country Fri. LastFri. Fri. LastFri.