Financial Times 27Feb2020

4 ★ FINANCIAL TIMES Thursday 27 February 2020

case of a returnee from Qom. Pakistan

has closed its border with Iran.

Iranian officials have their own con-

cerns about neighbouring states. “Can

you believe Afghanistan, Iraq and Paki-

stan have lower casualties than Iran? It

is impossible,” said one official.

“Our neighbours either have business

reasons not to disclose their deaths like

Turkey and UAE or do not have the lab-

oratory capability to detect the virus.”

How have other states reacted?

Bahrain this week reported seven cases,

all returning from Iran via Dubai, and

has barred flights from Dubai and Shar-

jah. Many of Bahrain’s Shia Muslim pop-

ulation make pilgrimages to sites in Iran

via the UAE.

Dubai, the world’s busiest airport in

terms of international traffic, is a trade

and travel hub for China, Africa, Asia

and the Middle East.

After initially maintaining flights to

Iran, the UAE on Tuesday ceased serv-

ices to and from the country, raising

fears about the impact for the Dubai

economy, which has struggled since oil

prices collapsed in 2014. It has reported

13 cases, including visitors from Iran

and Chinese tourists.

Additional reporting by Stephanie Findlay,

Farhan Bokhari and Asmaa al-Omar

waivers to supply medicine. But since

the first deaths were announced, Irani-

ans have been panic-buying food, face

masks and sanitisers, causing shortages.

Which neighbours are at risk?

US sanctions have forced the republic to

depend on trade with Iraq, China, the

UAE, Turkey, Afghanistan, Pakistan

and Russia. Iranians frequently travel to

these countries for business.

Iraq shares a 1,500km frontier with

Iran and nine border crossings, with a

steady traffic of people and goods every

day worth some $12bn a year.

Alaa al-Qaisi, an Iraqi border official,

said the southern crossings have been

closed to Iranians since Saturday but

five people have been diagnosed with

coronavirus in Iraq — all of them came

from Iran.

An outbreak in Iraq would be devas-

tating, health officials say, since decades

of sanctions, violence and instability

have left the country’s hospitals under-

resourced and short-staffed. “Frankly

we have a problem in the healthcare sys-

tem in Iraq... so we focus on preven-

tion” said Saif Badr of the Iraqi health

ministry.

Afghanistan has identified seven sus-

pected cases in the province of Herat,

which borders Iran, and one confirmed

trolling disease outbreaks, eradicating

polio in the first decade after the revolu-

tion and last year prevented the spread

of type-B flu, according to health offi-

cials, after more than 100 people died.

But its capacity to contain the virus is

less certain. Iran’s economy is struggling

from US sanctions, with concerns

restrictions will lead to shortages of

medical supplies. Iran is prioritising

food and medicine, while European

pharmaceutical companies have US

Can Iran contain the outbreak?

Iran has a well developed health sector,

which attracts many people from the

Middle East, particularly Iraq, seeking

medical treatment. Since the Islamic

revolution in 1979, medical services

have been extended to even the most

remote villages and the country’s highly

educated population means Iran has

many doctors, pharmacists and nurses.

Iran also has recent experience of con-

N A J M E H B OZO R G M E H R— TEHRAN
C H LO E C O R N I S H— BEIRUT
S I M E O N K E R R— DUBAI

Iran has recorded the highest number of
coronavirus deaths outside of China and
is struggling to contain the disease, rais-
ing fears that the outbreak will spread
into neighbouring countries where frag-
ile health systems and weak govern-
ment control would make fighting the
deadly illness even harder.

How many cases are there?

At least 139 people have tested positive
for coronavirus, including Iran’s deputy
health minister who was filmed sweat-
ing heavily and repeatedly wiping his
face at a coronavirus press conference
on Monday. Of those cases, 19 people
have died in the last week, the highest
mortality rate of any coronavirus out-
break so far, according to official figures.
The first cases were traced to the holy
city of Qom, 140km south of Tehran and
home to 1.2m people. Qom receives
business travellers and Islamic pilgrims
from all over the globe and has the high-
est number of Shia Muslim clerical stu-
dents in the world. A few hundred of
those students are believed to be Chi-
nese nationals. But Iranian authorities
are yet to identify the patient that first
brought the virus to Iran.
Since the first cases in Qom, coronavi-
rus has now been detected in 19 of Iran’s
31 provinces, where most of the coun-
try’s 80m population live.

Can the figures be trusted?

After weeks of denying that any Iranian
had been diagnosed with coronavirus,
health ministry officials confirmed two
people had tested positive for Covid-
in Qom on February 19. Later that day,
the officials confirmed their deaths.
The short time between confirmation
of the infections and the deaths puzzled
many in Iran, fuelling suspicions that
officials had hidden the virus’s presence
for some weeks.
Trust in the Islamic regime is at a
record low after Iran’s armed forces mis-
takenly shot down a Ukrainian passen-
ger jet in January killing all 176 people
on board, including many Iranians, and
allegedly tried to cover up the incident.
The health ministry denies it has hid-
den coronavirus cases and insists peo-
ple’s health is its top priority. But a
member of parliament from Qom
alleged that at least 50 people have died
in the city alone, sparking an investiga-
tion from Iran’s Supreme National Secu-
rity Council.

J O E M I L L E R— FRANKFURT
M A RT I N A R N O L D— BERLIN
M I L E S J O H N S O N— ROME

A European auto supplier has had to
close its main Italian plant because of
the coronavirus quarantine, in the first
concrete evidence of the impact the dis-
ease could have on Europe’s domestic
industry and economy.
Electronics manufacturerMTAsaid
that if its 600 employees in the northern
town of Codogno were not allowed to
return to work within days, production
lines atFiat Chrysler(FCA) subsidiaries
would be brought to a standstill.
“All the other FCA plants in Europe
and those ofRenault, BMW andPeugeot
will close too,” MTA said, marking the

first forecast of a shutdown at a large

German carmaker’s domestic sites.

Coronavirus has affected European

carmakers’ production lines in China

since last month, but the knock-on

effect on the continent’s local suppliers

is only now beginning to be felt, as large

stockpiles helped manufacturers

weather delivery constraints.

Volkswagen,Daimler andBMW, all of

which rely heavily on profits made in

China, have repeatedly insisted the full

impact of the coronavirus outbreak on

supply chains was not fully known, due

to the complexity of their procurement

contracts. Responding to MTA’s notice,

BMW said there was “currently no

impact on the security of supply”.

Despite production in China slowly

restarting this week, European compa-

nies fear the supply of critical parts from

Chinese producers will be cut off soon.

Friedolin Strack, at Germany’s BDI

industry federation, said container

shipping traffic between Chinese and

German ports had fallen sharply and

supply chains were in danger of being

“broken” by next month.

“What we are receiving in harbours

today was shipped four to five weeks

ago, so the shortages will be coming in

the next few weeks,” he said.

Herbert Diess, chief executive of

Volkswagen, the largest foreign car-

maker in China, which is the world’s big-

gest car market, said sales were slowly

picking up but at a low level. “Basically

we lost February in China,” Mr Diess

told the FT.

Economists fear the impact of the

virus will add to the woes of European

manufacturers, which have already suf-

fered two years of falling orders and pro-

duction, and weigh on weak growth in

the eurozone, which last year fell to its

lowest level in seven years.

Paolo Gentiloni, the EU’s economics

commissioner, yesterday warned the

virus posed a material risk to eurozone

economic growth but said the commis-

sion would remain “cautious” in its fore-

casting of any potential recession.

“The only certainty is that we will

have an economic impact [in Europe],

but an assessment and serious forecast

is not yet possible,” said Mr Gentiloni.

The European Central Bank is due to

hold its next monetary policy meeting

on March 12 and is already facing calls to

cut rates and step up its bond purchases.

Gabriel Makhlouf, governor of the

Bank of Ireland and a member of the

ECB’s governing council, said that while

it was clear coronavirus would have a

negative impact on the eurozone econ-

omy it was “too early” to say how seri-

ous this would prove.

Mr Strack said it was proving difficult

for Chinese manufacturers and German

companies producing in China to pick

up production again. “It is difficult to

raise production to the full level when

only 50 to 80 per cent of workers are

present and where possible people are

trying to work from home and to avoid

public transport,” he said.

Research by German bank LBBW

found Mercedes-Benz maker Daimler

relied on more than 3,500 individual

suppliers for its car components.

Editorial Comment page 10;Lexpage 12

Olympics at riskpage 14;See Markets

SA R A H N E V I L L E A N D M Y L E S M C C O R M I C K

LONDON

Britain warned the public to be braced

for more coronavirus cases while Ger-

many said it was at the start of an epi-

demic as their governments laid out

strategiestorespondtotheoutbreak.

Matt Hancock, UK health secretary, told

MPs yesterday that while 13 people had

tested positive for the virus in the UK,

“we expect more cases here”. He

described the approach the government

was taking as “contain, delay, research

and mitigate”.

German health minister Jens Spahn,

reporting five new positive cases which

took the total to around 20, said parts of

the infection chains were no longer

trackable, “and that is a new thing”. He

warned against unnecessary panic, say-

ing “not every cough is a case of corona-

virus”.

Stella Kyriakides, European commis-

sioner for health, said greater collabora-

tion between European countries was

needed to tackle the continent’s corona-

virus outbreak. “Diverging approaches

across the EU should be avoided, and

this is why the Commission stands

ready to co-ordinate among member

states should this be necessary,” she said

at a press conference in Rome alongside

Italy’s health minister and the European

head of the World Health Organization.

Italy, which on Tuesday reported 11

deaths and 322 infections, was the

source of the first cases to be reported by

aclutch of countries.

Brazil health minister Luiz Henrique

Mandetta said a São Paulo resident aged

61 was in isolation at home, having

returned from Lombardy, where coro-

navirus cases in northern Italy are con-

centrated. It was the first case of the

virus in Latin America.

Greece reported its first confirmed

case, a 38-year-old woman who recently

returned from a trip to northern Italy,

while North Macedonia said a patient

being treated in the capital, Skopje, had

been in Italy for a month.

Italians, or those who have recently

visited the country, have tested positive

in Algeria, Austria, Croatia, Romania,

Spain and Switzerland.

ST E FA N I A PA L M A— SINGAPORE
F E B R I A N A F I R DAU S— BALI

Medical workers have warned that the
Indonesian holiday island of Bali is
severely underprepared to deal with
the deadly coronavirus, threatening its
4m inhabitants and a tourist industry
worthbillionsofdollarseachyear.

Interviews with staff at the three Bali
hospitals earmarked to treat victims of a
virus that has infected more than
80,000 people worldwide point to a lack
of equipment, staff and infrastructure
required to deal with an outbreak.
“I’m not convinced,” Ni Ketut Pande
Sri Widnyani, senior doctor at Sanji-
wani Gianyar hospital, one of the facili-
ties, said of Bali’s ability to handle such a
crisis. “Right now we’re not up to the
required standard,” she said of the hos-
pital. “There’s a lack of facilities and I
pray we won’t be infected.”
Indonesia, the world’s fourth-most
populous country, has yet to report a
single confirmed case of the coronavirus
despite its strong economic ties with the
rest of Asia and especially China, where
the illness originated. Given that the

virus has quickly spread to almost 40

countries, international experts ques-

tion whether this is credible.

“The fact that Indonesia has not

reported any cases is highly unusual,”

said Ian Mackay, a virologist at Queens-

land University in Australia, noting that

Bali was a top destination for travellers

from Wuhan, the city at the centre of the

outbreak. “In a major destination for

visitors from China we would expect to

see infected patients.”

Bali is considered particularly

exposed to a virus outbreak because of

its popularity with mainland Chinese,

who accounted for 1.2m of its more than

6m international visitors last year.

After China declared the outbreak

last month some of these tourists

extended their stay in Bali. A large

number of Indonesians also work in

China, often as domestic helpers. Indo-

nesia’s government has defended itself

against accusations of complacency. Yet

the country’s health minister has also

advised citizens to use prayer to ward

off the virus and criticised a Harvard

University warning of probable unre-

ported Indonesian cases.

In Bali, a lush island also popular with

western visitors, nine doctors specialis-

ing in respiratory diseases are on call

and 27 isolation rooms have been set

aside in case of an outbreak.

Yet when the Financial Times visited,

only five were classed as “negative pres-

sure rooms” — those fitted with airflow

systems that prevent pathogens spread-

ing around the hospital.

Putu Agus Sardana, a surgeon at

another of the hospitals, at Sanglah, said

they were well equipped but admitted

100 such rooms would be needed if Bali

was hit with an outbreak.

At Tabanan hospital, the third facility,

spokesperson I Made Suarjaya said pro-

tective gear was “urgently” needed.

“We requested 1,000 sets of clothing

at the start of the outbreak but the

order’s still being processed,” he said.

Italy plant closure prompts car industry fears

Electronics manufacturer warns European production lines will suffer unless quarantine at Codogno factory is lifted

Strategies

UK and

Germany

braced for

more cases

Iran Containment struggle stirs worries for neighbours

Workers

disinfect subway

trains against

coronavirus in

Tehran. The

virus has killed

19 people in Iran

Ebrahim Noroozi/AP

Indonesia

Lack of preparation on Bali causes concern

JA M E S P O L I T I— WASHINGTON

Donald Trump is under pressure to

tackle more aggressively the threat of a

coronavirus outbreak in the US, as

Democratic politicians accuse him of

playing down the problem amid expec-

tations of a broader economic and

financialhitfromthecrisis.

After returning to Washington yester-

day from a trip to India, Mr Trump was

set to meet senior advisers to discuss the

US response to the outbreak around the

world.

In a pair of tweets, Mr Trump

attacked media companies and Demo-

cratic political rivals for exaggerating

the US’s vulnerability to the virus and

praised health officials.

The US president’s attention to the

crisis ramped up sharply after US equity

indices plunged on Monday and Tues-

day and was only partly offset by a rally

yesterday. His top health officials,

including representatives from the

Centers for Disease Control, said the

country should prepare for the out-

break to spread across communities.

Although the White House has asked

Congress for $2.5bn in additional fund-

ing, Democrats said this understates the

scale of the problem if new cases begin

to multiply.

Chuck Schumer, the top Democrat in

the US Senate, said $8.5bn would be

needed to address the crisis. He accused

the president of proposing cuts to health

agencies such as the CDC, preventing

America’s ability to fight epidemics, and

trusting “other governments” like China

to contain the outbreak.

“You can spin this any way you want,

but it’s incompetence,” Mr Schumer

tweeted yesterday. Nancy Pelosi, the

Democratic Speaker of the House of

Representatives, criticised Mr Trump’s

comments earlier in the week that the

outbreak was “under control”.

Ms Pelosi said: “I don’t think the presi-

dent knows what he’s talking about —

once again.” At a congressional hearing,

Alex Azar, the health secretary, sought

to defend the Trump administration’s

approach to the coronavirus outbreak,

while insisting that the government was

ready to be more forceful if needed.

“The risk right now is very low to

Americans,” Mr Azar said. “We techni-

cally are in a state of containment in the

United States. We have always been

clear... that could change rapidly.”

The CDC said there were 57 cases of

coronavirus in the US. That includes 40

passengers brought back to the US from

the Diamond Princess cruise ship, three

people repatriated from China and 14

other US cases, mostly in California.

White House officials denied media

reports that the Trump administration

was preparing to appoint a special tsar

to co -ordinate the coronavirus

response, along the lines of Barack

Obama’s selection of a senior official to

address the Ebola outbreak.

But the administration is facing pres-

sure to speed up the development of a

vaccine, tighten its travel restrictions

for affected countries, and make testing

more widely available.

US measures

Trump faces calls for more vigorous response

Health workers

take part in an

exercise handling

a suspected virus

patient at Bali’s

Sanglah hospital

‘Idon’t think the president

knows what he’s talking

about — once again’

NancyPelosi, House Speaker

CO R O N AV I R U S

UAE

LEBANON AFGHANISTAN

BAHRAIN

KUWAIT

ISRAEL

SAUDI

ARABIA

EGYPT

OMAN

Deaths

IRAN

IRAQ

PAKISTAN

YEMEN

SUDAN

SYRIA



 

 





 





UAE

LEBANON AFGHANISTAN

BAHRAIN

KUWAIT

ISRAEL

SAUDI

ARABIA

EGYPT

OMAN

Deaths

IRAN

IRAQ

PAKISTAN

YEMEN

SUDAN

SYRIA







 





 





As at 1pm GMT Feb 26

Source: Johns Hopkins University, CSSE

Coronavirus threatens Middle East

Number of confirmed cases

‘All the other FCA plants

in Europe and those of

Renault, BMW and

Peugeot will close too’

FEBRUARY 27 2020 Section:World Time: 26/2/2020 - 18: 56 User: andy.puttnam Page Name: WORLD3 USA, Part,Page,Edition: USA, 4, 1