The Economist 14Mar2020

28 Asia The EconomistMarch 14th 2020

2 military officers and officials first appoint-

ed under military rule continue to serve in

every branch of government, including the

judiciary. Members of political parties, in

contrast, have been allowed to work as civil

servants only since this week, as a result of

one of the few constitutional amendments

that parliament did approve.

The courts and bureaucrats side in-

stinctively with the Tatmadaw. Two jour-

nalists from Reuters, a news agency, who

exposed a massacre in which an army unit

killed ten villagers, spent more time be-

hind bars for revealing “official secrets”

than did the soldiers who slaughtered in-

nocent civilians. What is more, the massa-

cre is the only incident for which soldiers

have been punished during a months-long,

army-led pogrom in 2017 that sent more

than 750,000 Rohingyas, a Muslim minor-

ity, fleeing to neighbouring Bangladesh.

This week the police said the army was

seeking a criminal prosecution of Reuters

and an mpquoted in a Reuters report, for

claiming that shelling by the army had

killed two Rohingya civilians. Neither the

police nor the army seem to have investi-

gated the shelling itself.

As if its weapons and its constitutional

powers do not give the Tatmadaw enough

power, it also has huge economic clout. It

owns two big conglomerates, Myanmar

Economic Holdings Limited (mehl) and

Myanmar Economic Corporation (mec),

which benefited from lucrative monopo-

lies under military rule. An American dip-

lomatic cable from 2009 stated that mehl

and mecare “key components of the elabo-

rate system of patronage the [army] uses to

maintain power”. In recent years they have

lost some of their monopolies and have

had to start paying taxes. But mehland its

subsidiaries, Myawaddy Bank and Mya-

waddy Trading, remain among the coun-

try’s biggest businesses.

The civilian government has reduced

expenditure on the Tatmadaw, from 4.3%

of gdpin 2015, just before the nldtook of-

fice, to 3.3% in 2017. But according to the

un, “The Tatmadaw’s ability to draw upon

alternative sources of revenue, outside the

military budget, enables it to operate with-

out effective oversight.”

Miss Suu Kyi has seldom dared to con-

front the Tatmadaw directly. Indeed, she

has leapt very publicly to its defence over

its treatment of the Rohingyas, arguing be-

fore the International Court of Justice last

year that its abuses were neither systemat-

ic nor widespread. Behind the scenes, how-

ever, she has on occasion subtly foiled the

generals. They do not appear to have antici-

pated her invention of the job of state

counsellor. She has also appointed her own

national security adviser, instead of rely-

ing on the men in uniform. And although

the army dominates the committee that

can declare a state of emergency, it is the

presidentwhoconvenesit.Neitherofthe

twonldloyalistswhohaveheldthejob

since 2016 hasseenfittodoso.Mostnota-

bly,attheendof2018,inwhatlookedlike

ananodynerestructuringofthebureau-

cracy,hergovernmentmovedthepowerful

General Administration Department,

whichcontrolsallbureaucratsinstateand

localgovernment,fromthearmy-runMin-

istryoftheInteriortoa departmentunder

civiliancontrol.Thisput“thebackboneof

publicadministration”inthenld’shands

forthefirsttime,writesMatthewArnoldof

theAsiaFoundation,anngo.

Intheory,MissSuuKyiandthenldwill

notalwaysneedtoresorttobureaucratic

subterfugetogettheirway.TheTatmadaw

claimsthatit willrelinquishitsroleinpoli-

ticsonce democracyhas “matured”.But

withtheirchurlishrefusaltocountenance

evenmodestconstitutionalreforms,itis

thegenerals,notthecivilianpoliticians,

whoarebehavingimmaturely.^7

L

ike beadson a slender string, a long

queue of mountaineers clings to a single

safety rope. They are waiting to ascend to

the icy peak of the world’s tallest moun-

tain: Everest. The climbers and their guides

have braved sheer rock, avalanches and

wild winds. But the crowds that await

interludes of good weather to rush for the

summit can be just as deadly. Climbers jos-

tle and bicker; long delays deplete supplies

of oxygen. Last year four of the 11 deaths on

the mountain during the spring climbing

season were blamed on overcrowding.

“It is quite a commotion up there,” says

Jeremy Tong of jtrace, a trekking firm,

who had to queue to reach the summit last

year. The Nepalese government had prom-

ised new rules to thin out the mob. (Be-

cause of coronavirus the Chinese govern-

ment has called off all ascents this year on

the northern face of the mountain, which

is in its territory.) It came up with a series of

new requirements to obtain a permit to

make an attempt on the peak. Applicants

should have successfully climbed another

Nepalese mountain of at least 6,500 metres

(Everest is 8,848 metres). They should pro-

vide documentation certifying their physi-

cal fitness for the challenge and employ ex-

perienced guides. The authorities are also

considering raising the cost of a permit

from $11,000 to $35,000. Yet this week they

announced that they would not put these

changes into effect this year, since there

had not been sufficient consultation on

them within the government.

Mountaineers are far less likely to die

on Everest than they were just a few de-

cades ago. Rescue teams and helicopters

stand ready to help those in need, which is

not always the case with other Himalayan

peaks. But there are many more climbers

than there used to be (see chart).

The Nepalese authorities handed out

381 permits to teams of mountaineers last

year, generating a welcome dollop of cash.

They are presumably keen to ensure that

stricter rules do not shrink revenues. Even

if the government comes out ahead, with

extra income from higher fees offsetting

any decrease in the number of permits is-

sued, an entire industry depends on Ever-

est. Nepal is among Asia’s poorest places:

about half of its 30m people subsist on less

than $3.20 a day, according to the World

Bank. Guides risk their lives because they

can earn perhaps $5,000 a season working

at the highest altitudes, more than seven

times the average annual wage. With last

year’s bad publicity and the impending

tightening of the rules, their earnings may

have peaked. 7

Nepal’s government dithers over rules

that would cut high-altitude queues

Traffic on Everest

High and climbing

Social climbers

High five thousand

MountEverest*

Source:HimalayanDatabase *Abovebasecamp

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0

6,000

5,000

4,000

3,000

2,000

1,000

0

15-

19

2000-

04

90-

94

80-

84

70-

74

60-

64

1950-

54

Death rate, % Number of climbers