The Economist 14Mar2020

1 km

BorgheseGallery

VaticanMuseums CastroPretorio

CircoMassimo

SpadaGallery

SanGiovanni

ValleAurelia

RediRoma

Ottaviano

Piramide

Lepanto

Termini

CastelSant’Angelo

SpanishSteps

TreviFountain

Colosseum

Pantheon

Forum

Metrostations Museums

-60 -40 -20 0 +20

Rome,differencefromusual

foot-trafficlevel,%points

March4th-11th 2020

TheFlaminiometrostation

mostlyservescommuters.

Trafficisdownbyjust4%

TheQuirinalPalaceismore

popularwithItaliantourists

thanwithforeigners

Estimatedfootfallatthe

metrostationsclosesttothe

Vaticanhasfallenbyhalf

Sydney+27

Singapore+4

NewYork+1

Madrid-5

London-9

HongKong-12

Paris-17

Seoul-19

Tokyo-24

12,462 Rome-36

639

7,755

2,284

126

459

2,277

1,281

178

128

Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed

-25

0

0

25

-50

→Residentsofcitiesaffectedbycovid-19areheedingadvicetostayathome

Changeinfoot traffic around selected metro stations

March4th-11th2020, difference from usual level, percentage points

Sources:Google;Johns Hopkins CSSE; The Economist *To March 11th

↑ Busier ↓ less busy

↓ Average change

in foot traffic, %

↓Confirmed

casesincountry*

By four-hour period

→Foottraffichas declined across Rome. Tourist areas have borne the brunt

The EconomistMarch 14th 2020 73

T

he photoslook like stills from “28 Days

Later”, a post-apocalyptic film. In St

Mark’s Square in Venice, pigeons outnum-

ber tourists. Madrid is closing prestigious

art museums, including the Prado and the

Reina Sofía. Beijing’s Forbidden City has

been shut for weeks. Football matches are

being played in front of empty stands.

The quarantines and directives to avoid

travel set up in response to covid-19, a new

disease, have reduced visits to tourist sites.

But do these eerie images reflect a broad re-

treat from public spaces? Data from Google

show that the virus has indeed prompted a

sharp decline in overall foot traffic. They

also suggest that shops and restaurants in

places where covid-19 is now taking root

should prepare for similar slowdowns.

By tracking mobile phones, Google con-

stantly estimates how busy places are rela-

tive to historical averages. For example,

Rome’s central train station, Termini, is

typically most crowded at 9am on Fridays.

Google assigns this peak level a value of

100, and expresses footfall at other times as

a share of this maximum. The average val-

ue throughout the week at Termini is 30.

March 6th, however, was an unusual

Friday. Even though Rome was not yet sub-

ject to an official lockdown, at 9am that day

Google reported a foot-traffic level at Ter-

mini of just 31, 69 points below the average

for that time. The pattern was similar at

other times, and at 14 other stations and 11

museums in Rome—though the declines

were steeper in tourist areas than in places

frequented by locals. In total, Rome’s met-

ro was about one-third less busy during the

past week than normal, the biggest drop-

off among the 18 cities we tracked. More-

over, the decline in Rome’s pedestrian traf-

fic sharpened from 15% when the week be-

gan to around 50% when it ended.

Rome is the capital of a country with a

dire outbreak, but it reflects a broad pat-

tern. From March 3rd to 11th, footfall at met-

ro stations was below the usual rate in 12 of

the 18 cities. Among those 12, the average

drop was 15%. The other cities with big dips

were mainly in Asia, where covid-19 began.

In some Asian cities, the rate of new

cases has fallen and normal life is resum-

ing. Foot traffic in Hong Kong returned to

standard levels on March 7th. Conversely,

metro stations in New York are as busy as

ever, just as the city’s outbreak gathers

speed. If its counterparts elsewhere are any

guide, the worst lies ahead. 7

Foot traffic has fallen sharply in cities

with big coronavirus outbreaks

Ghost towns

Graphic detailCovid-19 in cities