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their homes. By most estimates, the
number of climate refugees will reach
100-200 million people by 2050. Some
estimates are as high as one billion.
When we think of climate
displacement, however, the images
that come to mind are often dramatic:
a hurricane hammering an island,
a landslide washing away a village,
raging tropical storms. We envision
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roads, families crammed into trucks,
or people living in tent encampments.
These images deserve our attention. But
as the plight of the Sri Lankan farming
families indicates, there is a quieter
type of climate migration happening
as well, one that has been poorly
documented so far. It is the departure
of adult, able-bodied family members
from rural areas to cities in search of
work as the slow-onset impacts of our
warming world — soil degradation,
saltwater intrusion, water scarcity,
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livelihoods no longer viable. It is a
movement that tears families apart and
hollows out rural communities.
In South Asia, as in other parts
of the world, this type of climate-
driven migration has remained largely
invisible because migration itself is not
new to the region. As a 2016 Action
Aid report points out, migration due to
various “push factors” such as poverty,
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“pull factors” such as seasonal labor
opportunities, kinship, and access to
healthcare or other services has been
occurring since “long before climate
change became an issue.”
But as the region grows more prone
to extreme droughts, heatwaves, heavy
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and the impacts of rising sea levels,
climate is increasingly becoming a key
factor driving people from their homes.The region’s large population —
South Asia comprises the nations of
Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan,
India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and
Sri Lanka — and relative poverty
make it exceptionally vulnerable to the
impacts of climate change. Most of the
countries in this group are middle or
low-income nations, where the greater
part of the population struggles to meet
basic needs. As a result, they are more
vulnerable to weather-related changes
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able. The World Bank estimates that
changing weather patterns will directly
impact more than 800 million people
in the region by 2050.I
N SRI LANKA, which is surrounded
by ocean, increasing average
temperatures and changes in seasonal
rainfall patterns are already taking a
toll on the country’s 21 million citizens.
The small island nation experienced
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2016, and 2018, and went through the
worst drought in 40 years in 2016-17.
A 2018 World Bank study estimates
the country contains “hidden hotspots”
— areas that are economically at risk
from climate change and where liv-
ing standards are expected to decline
as a result. It notes that by 2050, the
country’s annual average temperature
could rise by anything from 1 to 2
degrees Celsius, putting the 19 million
people (more than 90 percent of all Sri
Lankans) living in these locations at
risk.At the same time as Sri Lanka faces
the impacts of climate change, it has
also been transforming into an upper
middle-income country. Cities like
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growing in population. The nation’s
economy has grown on average 6.2
percent a year since the end of the civil
war, and is transitioning from being
predominantly rural and agricultural
to focusing on urbanized manufactur-
ing and services, and is growing in
popularity as a tourist destination.
Still, agriculture continues to be
the country’s most important source of
employment with millions of families
engaged in smallholder farming. Insome places, the local economy is
entirely dependent on it. This means
that the declining predictability of
rainfall puts immense pressure on the
fabric of village life. “There is not much
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while non-rain periods grow longer in
certain parts of the country,” explains
R.P. Samarakkody, additional direc-
tor general of the country’s Disaster
Management Centre.
Under drought conditions, whole
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of less than 10,000 rupees ($55 US),
relying on their kitchen gardens and
the roof over their heads to survive.
Some try to cope by reducing their
food intake, pawning their jewelry or
other assets, or borrowing from banks.
7\PMZ[ ZMKMQ^M JMVMÅ\[ []KP I[Sri Lanka’s average temperature could
rise by 1 to 2 degrees Celsius by 2050.