2020-03-07 New Zealand Listener

8 LISTENER MARCH 7 2020

LIFE

Something to wine about

An outbreak

here would

probably result

in advice to

avoid large

gatherings,

planes, trains

and buses.

S
TE

VE

B

O

LT

O

N

BILL

RALSTON

I

t is the End of Days. Any moment

I expect someone to walk down

the road outside my place chant-

ing, “Bring out your dead!” The

level of Covid-19 hysteria is rising

beyond what the current circum-

stances would justify.

Let us look at the situation. As at

February 24 in China, which is the

epicentre of the coronavirus outbreak,

there were 77,150 confirmed cases

with 2592 deaths as a result. South

Korea had 833 cases with seven

deaths; Italy had more than 200 cases

and five deaths, and Iran has reported

61 cases and 12 deaths. Afghanistan

announced its first case and promptly

announced a state of

emergency, which is odd

as the country has been

a death-dealing war

zone for decades. There

have been no cases of

Covid-19 in New Zea-

land. Yet.

To quote the ancient

TV series Dad’s Army,

“Don’t panic, Mr Main-

waring, don’t panic!”

Covid-19 is not bubonic

plague or Ebola. It is like

a very nasty flu that,

in severe cases, could

kill you, especially if

you have a pre-existing

condition that weakens

your resistance. It is

not an automatic death

sentence.

Fears of Covid-

seem over the top,

but I’m ready to go

into self-isolation.

Nevertheless, world markets are getting the

shakes. In New Zealand, tourism took a huge hit

as the travel ban from China removes one of our

biggest sources of visitors. Tertiary education is also

financially affected by the ban as thousands of fee-

paying Chinese students are stranded in China and

unable to attend school here. Forestry and other

local industries are also likely to face tougher times

as Chinese markets shrink and even disappear for

the time being. However, living in a largely rural

area, I’m just as worried about the economic effects

on the country of the ongoing drought. It’s about

maintaining a sense of proportion.

Even if or, rather, when the virus strikes here,

I am more than willing to put myself into self-

isolation. In fact, I do that already. Fourteen days at

home with a full freezer, Netflix and enough good

books sounds perfect. All right, we’ll add a couple

of dozen bottles of wine to that survival list.

Of course, the Covid-19 disease could mutate

into something more deadly. That happened in

1918, when a second virulent wave of an influenza

epidemic killed 9000 here in just two months.

However, I think medical research and technology

have improved somewhat since World War I, and a

modern casualty rate would be much

less than the 5.8 deaths per thousand

back then.

This is good news, as most of the

population can’t put themselves

into self-isolation to avoid infection.

An outbreak here would probably

result in advice to avoid large public

gatherings, planes, trains and buses,

which most people would need to get

to work or school, where the disease

could also be happily incubating

away.

A

lthough the World Health

Organisation says it is “too

early” to call Covid-19 a pan-

demic, I notice one New Zealand

academic saying the disease could

infect “billions” of people around

the world. That is premature and not

a particularly helpful thing to say,

because it simply contributes to a

sense of nationwide panic in advance

of any outbreak.

As well as travel bans,

New Zealand has some

solid options for keeping

Covid-19 under control

if necessary, including

stocks of antivirals,

millions of face masks,

fast-testing techniques

and a health system that

has had time to prepare

for such infections.

In the meantime,

I’m concentrating on

building up my stocks of

food and wine, popping

down to the bookshop

and making my own

preparations. The idea of

self-isolation is increas-

ingly attractive, even if

there never is a single

case of Covid-19 here. l