Wall St.Journal Weekend 29Feb2020

THE WALL STREET JOURNAL. *** Saturday/Sunday, February 29 - March 1, 2020 |A

POLITICS

The Pack Tries

To Catch

Front-Runner

The Democratic delegate leader’s

primary rivals, by splitting the vote, could

help the Vermont senator win delegates

maintains his lead, they are

all hoping to keep him from

picking up the 1,991 dele-

gates needed to secure the

nomination outright,

prompting a contested sum-

mer convention in Milwau-

kee from which another can-

didate could emerge on top.

Tuesday’s contests repre-

sent a coming test that could

determine whether Mr. Sand-

ers can cruise to a com-

manding delegate lead. Cali-

fornia and Texas, the two

biggest delegate prizes, offer

a combined 643 delegates, or

nearly half of the delegates

awarded on Tuesday. Mr.

Sanders is leading in Califor-

nia, polls show, and at or

near the top in Texas. If only

one other candidate crosses

the 15% threshold necessary

to earn delegates, that could

give Mr. Sanders a much eas-

ier path than if multiple peo-

ple win delegates in the two

states.

“The key to winning is to

minimize Sanders’s margins

on Super Tuesday and rack

up delegates in the following

contests as the field win-

nows,” Mr. Buttigieg’s cam-

paign said in a memo re-

leased this past week.

Mr. Sanders’s coming

schedule shows how he is

trying to thwart his would-

be challengers.

The senator was set to

hold rallies Friday and Satur-

day in Massachusetts, Ms.

Warren’s home state. Mon-

day, Mr. Sanders will be in

Ms. Klobuchar’s state of Min-

nesota before returning

home to Vermont. All three

have Tuesday primaries.

“He’s flexing, and I think

he has every reason to,” said

Ian Sams, who worked on

the presidential campaigns

of Kamala Harris and Hillary

Clinton. “He wants to really

put Elizabeth and Amy in the

corner and say, ‘You can’t

even win your home state

and I can. Why are you still

pressing on in this race?’ ”

Ms. Klobuchar—who came

in a better-than-expected

third place in New Hamp-

Joe Biden is betting on a

victory in South Carolina to

revitalize his campaign. Amy

Klobuchar says she still has

momentum from New Hamp-

shire. Elizabeth Warren be-

lieves her recent debate per-

formances gave her a fresh

boost.

Pete Buttigieg is second in

the delegate hunt and wants

to make it a two-person

race. And Michael Bloomberg

is about to be on the ballot

in a series of states where he

has spent more than $

million in ad-

vertising.

Democratic

presidential

candidates all

have different reasons for

staying in the 2020 race, but

they are bound by a common

goal: to stop Bernie Sanders

from amassing a majority of

delegates.

Mr. Sanders’s early

strength—and the more cen-

trist rivals splitting up the

vote that doesn’t go his

way—is putting the Vermont

senator on track to scoop up

delegates when voters across

14 states, one U.S. territory

and party members living

abroad head to the polls on

March 3, known as Super

Tuesday.

Mr. Sanders’s rise has

fueled concerns within the

establishment and among

party moderates that his

identity as a democratic so-

cialist and liberal policy

agenda will doom Democrats

in the general election. Mr.

Sanders says he can beat

President Trump, and a re-

cent Wall Street Journal/NBC

News poll shows him win-

ning a hypothetical matchup

between them.

Only a small percentage of

delegates have been awarded

so far, and if his trajectory

changes, another candidate

could overtake him. But if he

BySabrina Siddiqui

in Raleigh, N.C.,

andKen Thomas

in Conway, S.C.

ELECTION

22

the last week—including a

whopping lead of 20 percent-

age points in a Monmouth

University survey.

A South Carolina win, par-

ticularly a comfortable one,

would inject a dose of new

life into what had been a flag-

ging Biden campaign. Yet it is

unclear how much help that

would provide him heading

into next week’s Super Tues-

day voting in 14 states.

There isn’t enough time to

translate a South Carolina

win into a big fundraising

surge and not many days to

build momentum. An impor-

tant consideration in coming

days, then, is where Mr. Biden

will be in the best position to

take advantage in Super Tues-

day states, many of which

show Mr. Sanders leading in

the polls.

Alabama, Arkansas, Vir-

ginia, North Carolina and

Tennessee all vote Tuesday,

and all have relatively large

populations of African-Ameri-

can voters, who are Mr. Bi-

den’s most loyal and impor-

tant group. Oklahoma is a

conservative state where the

limited public polling shows

Mr. Biden slightly ahead of

the liberal Mr. Sanders.

Three Super Tuesday

states are home to Biden

competitors: Vermont of Mr.

Sanders, Massachusetts of

Sen. Elizabeth Warren and

Minnesota of Sen. Amy

Klobuchar. That reduces Mr.

Biden’s chances but means

lagging behind there won’t be

an unpleasant surprise.

Still, Mr. Biden’s biggest

problem in taking advantage

of any good South Carolina

news is New York City Mayor

Michael Bloomberg. He ap-

pears on ballots for the first

time on Super Tuesday, has

spent millions of dollars ad-

vertising and stands smack in

the middle of Mr. Biden’s

moderate lane.

So it appears the firewall is

holding for former Vice Presi-

dent Joe Biden this week. If

that remains the case, a key

question is:

How much will

that matter

next week?

A tense

campaign

week draws to

a close with the South Caro-

lina primary election Satur-

day. It has become almost a

cliché at this point to say that

South Carolina is a must-win

state for Mr. Biden—and that

a Biden win there is the best

bet for the rest of the field to

blunt the momentum of a ris-

ing Sen. Bernie Sanders.

Yet the cliché is holding

true, and the news from

South Carolina has been

mostly good for Mr. Biden. He

leads in every one of six

statewide polls released in

BYGERALDF.SEIB

For Biden, South Carolina Could Bring Life, but Clock Is Ticking

Former Vice President Joe Biden campaigning in Sumter, S.C., on Friday.

JIM LO SCALZO/EPA/SHUTTERSTOCK



THIS

WEEK

shire and has campaigned as

the “practical” choice—has

scheduled a Super Tuesday

night party in St. Paul,

Minn., and has also been

competing in states such as

Colorado, North Carolina,

Tennessee and Virginia.

Aides to Ms. Warren be-

lieve her fiery performance

in the Feb. 19 debate in Las

Vegas improved her standing

in the race, and they have

touted a fundraising haul of

more than $21 million for

the month, as of Feb. 22.

Ms. Warren also received

a giant lift from a political-

action committee supporting

her campaign, known as Per-

sist PAC, which announced a

$9 million television and dig-

ital ad buy late Thursday.

The ads will run in nine me-

dia markets across three Su-

per Tuesday states: Califor-

nia, Massachusetts and

Texas.

Seeking a comeback, Mr.

Biden is banking on South

Carolina to help give him

momentum. Aides believe his

strength with African-Ameri-

can voters, who make up

more than half of the Demo-

cratic primary electorate in

South Carolina, could help

him win delegates in a group

of Southern states voting in

March.

“While some people in Su-

per Tuesday states have al-

ready voted, many voters are

still making up their minds

and waiting to cast their bal-

lot until election day. South

Carolina could be an impor-

tant marker in what hap-

pens,” said Becca Siegel, the

Biden campaign’s chief ana-

lytics officer.

Mr. Biden received a boost

this past week when he was

endorsed by Rep. James Cly-

burn of South Carolina, the

top-ranking African-Ameri-

can lawmaker in the House,

and picked up the support

Friday of Sen. Tim Kaine of

Virginia, a former governor

who served as Hillary Clin-

ton’s 2016 running mate.

The Biden campaign has

launched a $2.2 million

broadcast and digital ad buy

in eight states, an amount

well behind many of his ri-

vals. Mr. Bloomberg has

spent more than $161 million

on TV and radio advertising

in the states, while billion-

aire businessman Tom Steyer

has spent $42 million and

Mr. Sanders has spent nearly

$15 million, according to

data from Kantar/CMAG.

Divisions over how to pick

a nominee if no one secures

a majority of delegates also

have pitted Mr. Sanders

against the rest of the field.

Mr. Sanders has stood

alone in arguing that the

candidate with the most

votes should be at the top of

the ticket—even if that indi-

vidual fails to win a majority

of pledged delegates. His ri-

vals have said the nominee

should be chosen at the con-

vention in July if no candi-

date achieves a majority of

delegates through primaries

and caucuses.

“The person who wins the

most delegates and the most

votes should be the nomi-

nee,” said Ari Rabin-Havt,

Mr. Sanders’s deputy cam-

paign manager.

Democratic National Com-

mittee rules stipulate that

the nominee must win a ma-

jority of delegates. If no one

does, delegates are free to

support any candidate on the

second vote, and superdele-

gates—mostly party insiders

and elected officials—can

weigh in.

Speaking at a CNN town

hall on Wednesday, Ms. War-

ren accused Mr. Sanders of

reversing his position from

2016, when he argued that

the nomination shouldn’t be

awarded to a candidate with

only a plurality of delegates.

“The way I see this is you

write the rules before you

know where everybody

stands, and then you stick

with those rules,” Ms. War-

ren said.

Ms. Warren added that

she was prepared to stay in

the race and take the fight to

the convention floor.

Mr. Bloomberg has also

been laying the groundwork

for a divided convention and

has been quietly reaching

out to party leaders and do-

nors in a bid to corral sup-

port should the nominating

contest go to a second bal-

lot, according to people fa-

miliar with the matter.

The dynamic has drawn

contrasts to Mr. Trump’s in-

surgent campaign in 2016,

which shocked the Republi-

can establishment and simi-

larly left a crowded field of

rivals pinning their hopes on

a brokered convention.

That scenario never came

to pass.

Terry Sullivan, a former

senior adviser to Florida

Sen. Marco Rubio’s 2016

presidential campaign, said a

contested convention was

wishful thinking for Demo-

crats in 2020.

“They’re hanging onto a

thread, just like we were,” he

said. “They’re hanging onto

a hope or a prayer that if

this goes a contested con-

vention, they can be the guy

or the gal that people turn

to.”

“But at the end of the day,

this is Bernie’s to lose,” he

added.

—Chad Day

contributed to this article.

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Delegates before Super Tuesday

Delegates on Super Tuesday

Delegates remaining after

155

1,

2,

Over a third of all pledged Democratic delegates to the national convention will be

awarded Tuesday. California alone has 415 delegates.

Source: Democratic National Committee Brian McGill/THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

One square equals one

pledged Democratic delegate

Sen. Amy Klobuchar is trying to build on the momentum from

her third-place showing in the New Hampshire primary.

ANDREW HARNIK/ASSOCIATED PRESS

Sen. Elizabeth Warren says she is prepared to stay in the race and take the fight for the nomination to the convention floor.

ERIC THAYER/REUTERS