41
War Against Killer Germs. “So all 50 states are going
to contribute to each other. We’re only as strong as
our weakest link.”
The quesTion every counTry has to answer is
what recovery looks like in a post-coronavirus world.
New Zealand has had extraordinary success in con-
quering the virus, partly as a consequence of its isola-
tion and low population density but also because it in-
troduced strict lockdown measures and all but closed
its borders. Now, daily new infections are down to sin-
gle digits and it’s poised to banish the virus completely.
Still, the banning of all foreign nationals is hav-
ing a catastrophic effect on the country’s tourism-
reliant economy. Over 2019, international tour-
ists to New Zealand spent just over $10 billion: the
sector employs 8.4% of the workforce. All this has
now evaporated. “The economy can survive with-
out international tourism, but not as we know it,”
says Brad Olsen, senior economist at New Zealand’s
Info metrics consultancy firm.
Economic superpowers are no less at risk. China’s
economy contracted 6.8% in the first quarter of 2020.
Although domestic demand is now picking up again,
China’s exposure to the global marketplace will mean
the pain lasts for some time—and will have unpre-
dictable repercussions. The dearth of demand for
goods by Americans sequestered in their homes, for
example, means Chinese factories run at reduced ca-
pacity, slashing the demand for energy, which helped
crude-oil prices plummet below $0.
After the 2008 financial crisis, China invested
in its recovery through infrastructure. It plowed
$586 billion into government projects like high-
ways, metro systems and airports, and poured more
cement between 2011 and 2013 than the U.S. used in
the entire 20th century. One result of that spending
binge was soaring national debt, but it also resulted
in millions of jobs in the short term and an enhanced
foundation for every Chinese business to operate.
Beijing now appears reluctant to repeat that
feat, but it might work for the U.S., which has so
far focused on injecting liquidity into bond mar-
kets, making grants to small business and sending
$1,200 checks to individuals. Analysts say the U.S.
needs to spend some $4.5 trillion by 2025 to fix its
creaking roads, railways and airports, plus upgrade
to next- generation technology like 5G. Economists
say infrastructure is an equalizer that empowers all
businesses— big and small—and should be prioritized
over bailing out lenders once again.
It’s early, but already clear that one legacy of the
coronavirus will be a changed economic landscape.
Almost half a million companies in China declared
bankruptcy during the first quarter of the year.
How many American firms fold depends on choices
made today—by officials, and by people anxious for
answers. The only thing worse than closed doors
is a public too terrified to walk through open ones.
—With reporting by Stephen Kim/Seoul; AbigAil
leonArd/toKyo; Amy guniA and hillAry leung/
hong Kong □
^
TAIWAN
Fewer than 500
cases have been
confirmed on the
island of 23 million,
where students in
a plastic-arts class
seen on April 28
learned to make
face shields
DAVID CHANG—EPA-EFE/SHUTTERSTOCK
