Foreign_Affairs_-_03_2020_-_04_2020

The Folly of Retrenchment

March/April 2020 13

FRANCO

PAGETTI

/ VII

/ REDUX

U.S. pullback from those places is more

likely to embolden the regional powers.

Since 2008, Russia has invaded two o‡ its

neighbors that are not members o‡ ˆ‰Š‹,

and i‡ the Baltic states were no longer

protected by a U.S. security guarantee, it

is conceivable that Russia would test the

boundaries with gray-zone warfare. In

East Asia, a U.S. withdrawal would force

Japan to increase its defense capabilities

and change its constitution to enable it to

compete with China on its own, straining

relations with South Korea.

The second problem with retrench-

ment involves nuclear proliferation. I‡

the United States pulled out o‡ ˆ‰Š‹ or

ended its alliance with Japan, as many

realist advocates o‡ retrenchment

recommend, some o‡ its allies, no longer

protected by the U.S. nuclear umbrella,

would be tempted to acquire nuclear

weapons o‡ their own. Unlike the progres-

sives for retrenchment, the realists are

comfortable with that result, since they

see deterrence as a stabilizing force.

more dangerous world because regional

rivals would check one another. This is

a perilous gambit, however, because

regional con•icts often end up implicat-

ing U.S. interests. They might thus end

up drawing the United States back in

after it has left—resulting in a much

more dangerous venture than heading

o— the con•ict in the ˜rst place by

staying. Realist retrenchment reveals a

hubris that the United States can

control consequences and prevent crises

from erupting into war.

The progressives’ view o‡ regional

security is similarly •awed. These

retrenchers reject the idea that regional

security competition will intensify i‡ the

United States leaves. In fact, they argue,

U.S. alliances often promote competition,

as in the Middle East, where U.S. support

for Saudi Arabia and the United Arab

Emirates has emboldened those countries

in their cold war with Iran. But this logic

does not apply to Europe or Asia, where

U.S. allies have behaved responsibly. A

Hearts and minds: U.S. soldiers searching farmers in Afghanistan, December 2009

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