Foreign Affairs. January-February 2020

172  

the three countries Woloch discusses and

elsewhere in the developed world. A

downturn will undoubtedly come sooner

or later, but its political consequences

are unpredictable. The Great Recession

raised hopes o a renewed Keynesian

politics, but in fact the immediate result

was a politics o austerity. Economic

inequality today may well be comparable

to what existed just before the Depres-

sion, but inequality can deter mobilization

as easily as it can spur it. More impor-

tant, since the postwar years, the shape

o Western societies has been altered

almost beyond recognition. The base o

reformist parties in the 1930s and 1940s

was the working class, largely organized

through trade unions. Today, the work-

ing class is both harder to de ne and far

smaller, and the unions that once gave it

voice are far weaker.

In the absence o those forces, some

hope that cultural or environmental

concerns might motivate collective action

and lead voters to embrace progressive

candidates. That hope has yet to be

realized. Others believe that the rise o

populist politics with authoritarian traits

and aspirations—although a far cry from

the fascism that once spurred left-wing

parties—will galvanize resistance that is

broad and sustained enough to stimulate

progressive victories and pave the way

for reform. Here, too, the evidence is not

yet in, but the new populists’ sheer

nastiness and inability to govern might

well unify the left to an extent that was not

possible prior to their ascent. The en-

emies o progressivism might once again

prove to be its inadvertent allies.∂

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