SERHII PLOKHY is Mykhailo S. Hrushevs’kyi Professor of Ukrainian History and Director
of the Ukrainian Research Institute at Harvard University and the author of The Gates of
Europe: A History of Ukraine.
M. E. SAROTTE is Marie-Josée and Henry R. Kravis Distinguished Professor of Historical
Studies at Johns Hopkins University and the author of The Collapse: The Accidental Opening
of the Berlin Wall.
January/February 2020 81
The Shoals of Ukraine
Where American Illusions and Great-
Power Politics Collide
Serhii Plokhy and M. E. Sarotte
A
t first, it might seem surprising that Ukraine, a country on
the fringes of Europe, is suddenly at the turbulent center of
American politics and foreign policy. With an impeachmentinquiry in Washington adding further detail to the story of the Trump
administration’s efforts to tie U.S. security assistance for the country
to Ukrainian cooperation in investigating President Donald Trump’s
Democratic opponents, Trump’s presidency itself hangs in the bal-
ance. And the repercussions go even further, raising questions about
the legitimacy and sustainability of U.S. power itself.
In fact, that Ukraine is at the center of this storm should not be
surprising at all. Over the past quarter century, nearly all major ef-
forts at establishing a durable post–Cold War order on the Eurasian
continent have foundered on the shoals of Ukraine. For it is in Ukraine
that the disconnect between triumphalist end-of-history delusions
and the ongoing realities of great-power competition can be seen in
its starkest form.
To most American policymakers, Ukraine has represented a
brave young country—one that, despite the burden of history, suc-
cessfully launched itself on a path of democratic development as
part of a new world order after the fall of the Berlin Wall. To the
Kremlin, meanwhile, it has remained an indispensable part of a
long-standing sphere of influence, one that operates largely accord-
ing to old rules of power. The difference between these two views