Foreign Affairs. January-February 2020

The Shoals of Ukraine

January/February 2020 95

U.S. military aid, which could not have been more pleasing to Moscow

and more damaging for the reputation of the United States in the re-

gion. Putin had effectively enlisted Trump in his irredentist efforts.

Now, Trump’s delusion threatens to undermine American voters’

already shaky confidence in the U.S. democratic system—and the rest

of world’s already eroding faith in the U.S.-led order that was sup-

posed to bring decades of peace and prosperity in the wake of the Cold

War’s end. Past impeachments in the United States have focused on

either immoral behavior or illicit domestic political activities, but the

impeachment process underway now centers on a president’s misuse

of American power abroad. Decades after they supposedly disap-

peared, Moscow’s imperial ambitions—which Putin pursues through

the network that runs from the Kremlin through Ukraine to the White

House—have now unsettled American democracy itself.

Meanwhile, the question of Ukrainian security remains open. The

past decades have made clear that as long as Ukraine’s status is un-

settled and insecure, the consequences will continue to reverberate

beyond its borders. Washington believed that it could ensure Ukraine’s

control over its own destiny without major effort and at low cost. The

reality is that it could not. What is worse, the best means for promot-

ing Ukrainian security are in the rearview mirror. Expanding nato to

include Ukraine now would most likely result in more, not less, con-

flict with Russia. Washington’s best option at this point is to strengthen

its bilateral political and security ties with Ukraine while working

closely with its European allies to ensure Ukraine’s ability to protect

its sovereignty. And although he is unlikely to do so, Trump should

stop playing games with the aid he has promised to Ukraine; he should

prioritize security assistance and diplomatic engagement over ad hoc

dealings. Above all else, Washington must protect the impeachment

process from Russian interference and get past the illusion that it can

promote a stable political order either at home or abroad without suc-

cessfully navigating the shoals of Ukraine.∂

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