A10| Monday, March 16, 2020 ***** THE WALL STREET JOURNAL.
Firefighters disinfect Tehran streets in a bid to stop the spread of coronavirus. Iran has the world’s third-highest number of Covid-19 cases.ABEDIN TAHERKENAREH/EPA/SHUTTERSTOCKTHE CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC
from 770 in 2016, the United
Nations reported.
A sequence of attacks
against military and civilian
targets has sent more than one
million people fleeing south in
Burkina Faso alone in recent
months, creating what aid
agencies are calling the world’s
fastest-growing refugee crisis.
France, which colonized
much of the Sahel, leads the
West’s military response to the
crisis. Paris has 4,500 troops
stationed in West Africa and is
adding 600 reinforcements.
France is contributing hun-
dreds of troops to a major of-
fensive by some 5,000 West Af-
rican soldiers where the
borders of Mali, Burkina Faso
and Niger come together and
where militants maneuver
freely among isolated villages,
according to African officers.
The French Ministry of Defense
declined to comment.
U.S. troops don’t conductunilateral counterterrorism
raids or airstrikes in West Af-
rica, unlike in Somalia, where
they carry out frequent air at-
tacks on al-Shabaab militants.
In 2017, four U.S. servicemen
and five Nigerien soldiers were
killed when their patrol was
ambushed by fighters from the
Islamic State of the Greater Sa-
hara. The U.S. military subse-
quently barred its troops from
accompanying West African
forces on such operations.
U.S. support includes aerial
refueling for warplanes, air
transport for troops and sup-
plies, and airborne surveillance
by drones at a new, $110 mil-
lion U.S.-built base in Agadez,
Niger. U.S. Green Beret teams
are stationed in Niger to men-
tor elite local units, and Ameri-
can commandos periodically
visit Burkina Faso to train its
forces, according to officers
from those countries.
The U.S. won’t say publiclywhether it is providing intelli-
gence or other assistance in the
new offensive, which is target-
ing Islamic State of the Greater
Sahara and a collection of al
Qaeda affiliates operating as
Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal Mus-
limin, or JNIM. The U.S. De-
fense Intelligence Agency esti-
mates JNIM’s strength at 1,
to 2,000 fighters.
“You don’t want your boys
at the front? Give us training
with the Special Forces,” said
Maman Sidikou, permanent
secretary of the G5 Sahel, a
grouping of five West African
countries, which is fielding the
African battalions for the oper-
ation.
U.S. Africa Command is al-
ready pulling back from a strat-
egy of trying to “degrade” ex-
tremist groups to simply
attempting to “contain” them,
according to a report to Con-
gress last month by a Pentagon
inspector general.TEL AVIV—Israel’s Presi-
dent Reuven Rivlin will give
opposition leader Benny Gantz
the first chance to form a gov-
ernment in a blow to Prime
Minister Benjamin Netanyahu,
who is seeking to hold on to
the country’s top office while
facing charges of corruption.
Mr. Rivlin met throughout
the day Sunday with all of the
representatives from all of the
parties in the Knesset, Israel’s
parliament, before announcing
he will officially offer Mr.
Gantz the mandate on Mon-
day.
He then met with Messrs.
Gantz and Netanyahu to urge
them to form a unity govern-
ment, or a coalition including
parties from both sides of the
political spectrum.
Mr. Rivlin views the com-
mon political front as essen-
tial medicine to combat the
threat of the coronavirus in
Israel.
Mr. Gantz, beginning Mon-
day, has up to six weeks to try
to cobble together a governing
coalition after receiving the
most support to do so from
the members of Israel’s 120-
seat parliament.
The decision follows three
inconclusive elections in the
space of a year that has
landed Israel in a prolonged
state of political paralysis, a
situation that has allowed Mr.
Netanyahu to hang on as Is-
rael’s longest-serving prime
minister despite being in-
dicted on a charge of corrup-
tion and facing a court trial.
The stalemate has prevented
Israel’s parliament from pass-
ing a budget that would fund
the government’s operations.
“The biggest issue is there’s
no real budget, they can’t do
anything without that,” said
Mitchell Barak, a political ana-
lyst and director at Keevoon
Global Research, a Jerusalem-
based consulting firm. “They
need a government and not to
go to fourth elections.”BYFELICIASCHWARTZ
ANDDOVLIEBERNetanyahu
Rival Gets
First Shot
To Form
Coalition
also been unable to take other
measures that could halt the
epidemic, such as tracing po-
tential infections and conduct-
ing widespread testing, which
proved effective in South Korea.
“The economic embargo of
Iran made them hesitate to shut
down the internal economy, the
internal consumption, which is
what’s keeping the country
afloat right now,” said Amir
Handjani, an expert on the
economy at the Washington-
based Truman National Security
Project.
Shutting businesses and
transportation would have
tested the patience of Iranians
who months earlier took to the
streets in economic protests.
Anger with the leadership
surged again in January over
the military’s attempt to con-
ceal that it had shot down a
Ukrainian passenger jet on Jan.- A wide quarantine could have
inflamed tempers further.
Nonetheless, many private
businesses are struggling as
consumers opt to stay home.
Some companies ask their em-
ployees to do the same.
With the virus shutting ho-
tels, restaurants, schools and
other public institutions, as
many as two million jobs might
be lost, said Sadegh Alhosseini,
an economist in Tehran.
The government has few
economic tools at its disposal,
he said, adding that the U.S.
should lift sanctions on Iran for
a period to help the health-care
system.
The government likely
thought imposing more eco-
nomic pain “would have given
people another reason to panic,
protest and voice their griev-
ances,” said Mr. Handjani. “But
I think they made a miscalcula-
tion. [The virus] spread more
than they thought it would.”When the coronavirus hit
Iran in February, it presented
its leaders with a choice: Close
the country down to contain the
outbreak and risk the wrath of
a population already fed up
with economic hardship, or try
to keep the economy ticking
over and risk the outbreak spi-
raling out of control.
Tehran chose the latter.
Three weeks after announc-
ingitsfirstcase,Iranhasthe
third-most confirmed cases of
any country, after China and It-
aly, nearly 14,000, with at least
724 deaths as of Sunday. Trav-
elers have spread the illness
across towns and cities, and
acrossitsborderstoovera
dozen countries. Government
efforts to protect an economy
battered by U.S. sanctions have
failed to cushion the blow. Iran
last week asked the Interna-
tional Monetary Fund for a $
billion loan to help it combat
the outbreak, the first time in
six decades Iran has asked for
IMF assistance.
Iran’s approach contrasts
with that taken by some of its
neighbors in the region, notably
Israel, which ordered anyone
arriving in the country to quar-
BySune Engel
Rasmussenin London
andAresu Eqbali
in Tehranantine themselves for two
weeks or risk investigation. Is-
raeli officials said the move
would help protect the economy
in the long term, despite the
short-term damage it would in-
flict on the important tourism
and tech sectors.
Iranian officials identified
the central city of Qom as the
center of an outbreak that was
announced on Feb. 19, but re-
fused to quarantine the city,
calling such measures relics of
the era before World War I.
Qom, a religious center and pil-
grimage site, would have
proven both costly and difficult
to quarantine.
President Hassan Rouhani
said Sunday his government
didn’t plan to impose a lock-
down ahead of the Persian New
Year holiday, starting March 20.
After the virus spread to
other cities, the government
kept the roads open to the
north, despite pleas from local
officials there to restrict traffic,
though it has urged Iranians not
to travel and has canceled large
gatherings.
After many Iranians refused
to follow official guidelines to
prevent the spread of the virus,
the armed forces on Friday took
further action and said, begin-
ning Saturday, they would clear
streets and shops and monitor
all citizens online and, if neces-
sary, in person. The campaign is
being led by a military commis-
sion set up on orders from Su-
preme Leader Ali Khamenei,
chief of staff of the armed
forces Maj. Gen. Mohammad
Bagheri said on state television.
Iran’s health-care system hasIran Sees Few
Options as
Cases Grow
The government’s
strategy favored fixing
economy over
protecting public health
ThenumberofcoronaviruscasesissurginginIran,butthe
country'sreelingeconomyhasmadeittoughertoaddress
theepidemic.
Cumulative deaths and
infections in IranNote: Scale of rial chart is inverted to show weakening rial
Sources: Johns Hopkins Center for Systems Science and Engineering (cases); Bonbast.com (rial)14,02,Feb. 19 March 1 144,6,8,10,12,Cases DeathsHow many Iranian rials one
dollar buys13,16,16,15,15,14,14,13,Feb. 1 March 1Free-marketrateWORLD NEWS
The U.S. is pressing its Euro-
pean allies, who also train re-
gional military and police
forces, to fill whatever gaps it
may leave. “It is about expand-
ing that burden-sharing,” Mr.
Cooper told reporters.
During a visit to Washington
in January, France’s defense
minister, Florence Parly, stood
next to Mr. Esper as she told
reporters that a reduction in
U.S. support would “severely
limit” the effectiveness of
French operations in the Sahel.
U.S. officials tried to calm
nerves among the Africans
gathered for the exercises in
Mauritania. “A posture review
doesn’t always equate with ab-
sence or reduction” of forces,
Mr. Cooper said in an inter-
view.
Brig. Gen. Dagvin Anderson,
commander of U.S. special-op-
erations forces in Africa, said
he told his African counterparts
that the U.S. isn’t pulling up
stakes completely. “A small
footprint can have a large im-
pact,” he said in an interview.
Still, the possibility of a
drawdown has sparked a rare
show of bipartisanship in Con-
gress.
“Any reduction in U.S. mili-
tary presence in West Africa
would have real and lasting
negative consequences for our
African partners,” Sen. Jim In-
hofe (R., Okla.), chairman of the
Senate Armed Services Com-
mittee, said after leading a con-
gressional delegation to Mauri-
tania last month.
Sen. Inhofe is among the
lawmakers and counterterror-
ism officials warning that a U.S.
pullback could also provide an
opportunity for China and Rus-
sia to expand their influence in
Africa, the very phenomenon
the administration says it is
trying to prevent in its global
reshuffling of forces.
Nigerien officials are desper-
ate for Americans to deepen
their involvement instead of
stepping back. Nigerien com-
manders would like U.S. Green
Berets to resume joint patrols
with their men. And Niger’s
government would welcome
U.S. airstrikes against militants
inside the country, said a senior
Nigerien official. “They can kill
anyone they’d like,” the official
said, not entirely joking.
—Noemie Bisserbe in Paris,
Joe Parkinson in
Johannesburg and Warren P.
Strobel in Washington,
contributed to this article.NOUAKCHOTT, Mauritania—
At the closing ceremony of
U.S.-led military exercises in
this expansive Saharan nation,
American diplomat R. Clarke
Cooper stepped to the podium
and assured African military
commanders that Washington
stands ready to help them in
their time of need.
“The U.S. has an unwavering
and longstanding commitment
to Africa,” Mr. Cooper, the
State Department’s assistant
secretary for political-military
affairs, said late last month.
In fact, U.S. allies are in-
creasingly worried that Amer-
ica’s commitment may be wa-
vering when wide swaths of
Africa face a surging threat
from militants affiliated with al
Qaeda and Islamic State.
U.S. Defense Secretary Mark
Esper is conducting a world-
wide review of troop commit-
ments, in keeping with the
Trump administration’s strate-
gic tilt away from dispersed ac-
tions against terror groups and
toward great-power competi-
tion with China and Russia.
Africa is the first region on
Mr. Esper’s list, and military of-
ficers and lawmakers expect
him to order fresh troop reduc-
tions on the continent, on top
of the 17% cut in personnel
over the past two years. The
Pentagon hasn’t said when he
will announce his decision.
The Pentagon has already
sliced some 1,200 personnel
from its rolls in Africa since de-
ployments there hit a peak in
- It now has 6,000 troops
and civilians concentrated in
Niger in the west and in Soma-
lia and Djibouti in the east. In-
stead of combat power, the U.S.
offers specialized support for
those doing the fighting.
Africa’s security situation is
especially serious in the middle
of the Sahel, the semiarid belt
between the Sahara to the
north and more tropical lands
to the south. The number of ex-
tremist attacks in the Sahelian
heartland—Burkina Faso, Niger
and Mali, across the border
from Mauritania—is doubling
annually, to 803 last year from
55 in 2015, according to Armed
Conflict Location & Event Data
Project figures assembled by
the Pentagon’s Africa Center
for Strategic Studies. More
than 4,000 civilians and African
soldiers died in attacks in the
three countries last year, up
BYMICHAELM.PHILLIPS
U.S. Mulls Troop Cuts Amid Terror Threats
Under Attack
TheSahel,thesemiaridbeltsouthoftheSahara,hasbeenhardhitby extremistviolence.LIBYAEGYPTTUNISIAALGERIANIGERIAMALI
MAURITANIANIGERBURKINA FASO KENYASOMALIAMOZAMBIQUEDEM. REP.
OF CONGOAlQaedaintheIslamicMaghrebandaffiliatesAl-ShabaabandaffiliatesUnidentified/unaffiliatedgroupsBokoHaramIslamicStateaffiliatesIslamicStateWestAfricaIslamicStateintheGreaterSaharaandaffiliatesIslamicStateinSomaliaandaffiliatesAfrica’s active militant Islamist
group attacks, 2019