Financial Times Europe - 12.03.2020

2 ★ FINANCIAL TIMES Thursday12 March 2020

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DA N I E L D O M B E Y— MADRID

SA M J O N E S— ZURICH

G U Y C H A Z A N— BERLIN

European governments have warned it

could take months for the coronavirus

outbreak to end, forecasting the num-

ber of cases is set to continue growing.

Swiss authorities saidyesterday they

did not expect theepidemic to peak

until at least mid-May, while in Spain,

the doctor co-ordinating efforts to

tackle it said the outbreak could last up

to four months.

The number of Spanish cases rose to

2,100yesterday, up from 1,673 the pre-

vious evening. About half the cases are

in the Madrid region, where 31 people

have died after contracting the virus out

of a national total of 49. Madrid regional

cases account for more than 80 per cent

of the 126 people in intensive care with

the coronavirus in Spain.

Regional authorities have closed

schools, universities and theatres,

banned events of more than 1,000 peo-

ple and encouraged remote working.

Fernando Simón, the doctor co-ordi-

nating Spain’s coronavirus efforts, said

such measures were already reducing

the number of people on public trans-

port — diminishing the risk of contagion

— but it would take nine to 10 days to see

the impact on the disease’s spread,

because of the lag in the time it takes for

symptoms to appear and testing results

to be processed. Madrid authorities also

advised older or ill people against using

public transport.

The restrictive measures are initially

intended to last for two weeks. But Dr

Simón said in the best possible scenario

the authorities would have to wait for

two incubation periods of the disease —

typically about five days apiece — after a

last case of infection before they could

be sure that transmission was under

control.

In practical terms, Dr Simón said, that

meant Spain was unlikely to be certain

the disease’s spread was under control

before one-and-a-half to two months in

the best-case scenario, and possibly

three to four months.

Switzerland has confirmed its 645th

case of the disease and the Federal

Office of Public Health said it was no

longer possible to count the number of

infections exactly and only serious cases

would be treated by the authorities.

Bern announcedyesterday it was

closing nine of its border crossings into

northern Italy, the region in Europe

worst hit by the epidemic. Only major

crossings, such as that at Chiasso, north

of Como, will remain open, and even

then only partially: those wishing to

cross must have proof of a place of

employment they must reach.

Anyone showing symptoms was

advised to self-isolate at home and not

attend pharmacies or doctor surgeries.

Authorities stopped short of closing the

school system.

Patrick Mathys, the health authority’s

head of crisis management, said chil-

dren were the least affected group, and

sending them home to be cared for by

grandparents and higher-risk segments

of the population would be counterpro-

ductive.

“The peak of the epidemic in Switzer-

land could be in mid-May,” he said.

The spread of the coronavirus across

Europe triggered more shutdownsyes-

terday. The government of Ukraine,

which so far has only one confirmed

case, announced it would close schools

for three weeks and impose a ban on

crowds exceeding 200 people as part of

nationwide measures to prevent an

epidemic.

The decision comes after Poland

imposed a nationwide quarantine and

follows a decision by Ukraine’s capital,

Kyiv, to close schools and entertainment

centres.

Poland will close its schools, universi-

ties and cultural institutions from next

week. The measures, which come a day

after Poland banned mass events, will

remain in place for two weeks, the

Polish prime minister saidyesterday.

Additional reporting by Roman Olearchyk

in Kyiv and James Shotter in Warsaw

European nations

Bern and Madrid warn end unlikely to be in sight for months

Swiss checks: a customs officer on

patrol at the border with Italy

L E O L E W I S A N D K A N A I N AG A K I— TOKYO
M U R A D A H M E D— LONDON

Senior executives at three of Japan’s
Olympic sponsors have said privately
they think theTokyo games re likely toa
be postponed from the scheduled start
this summer as the coronavirus out-
break spreads, despite reassurances
from the event’s organisers that plans
have not changed.
Pessimism over the July 24 start date
has deepened since the weekend, said
one executive, as news of thespreading
outbreak in Europe and the US has hit
an Olympic host nation where schools
across the country remain closed, bans
on visitors from certain nations are in
place and sports fixtures have been con-
tested in front of empty stands.

The three sponsors, whose executives

spoke on condition of anonymity and

include two of the 15 “gold” level part-

ners — the top-paying domestic spon-

sors — of the games, have collectively

spent more than $200m to support an

Olympics whose preparations have cost

over $12bn and which ranks as the most

sponsored event in sports history.

Fears of a postponement crystallised

yesterday when a prominent figure

among the organisers broke ranks with

his colleagues. In a series of interviews,

Haruyuki Takahashi, a member of the

Tokyo Olympics Committee’s executive

board, said he would propose postpon-

ing the event for one to two years in the

wake of the global spread of the epi-

demic.

“Coronavirus is now a global issue. It

can’t be held even if it is fine to do so in

Japan,” Mr Takahashi told Asahi news-

paper. “If a delay is to be considered, we

will run out of time unless we start mak-

ing preparations now.”

One senior Japanese executive at a

gold-level sponsordescribed recent dis-

cussions with the Tokyo organisers at

which the latter would not acknowledge

that a postponement was under consid-

eration. He said that while nothing had

yet been said about a postponement,

several other sponsor companies had

told him they were concerned it was a

possibility.

As well as the games’ global partners

— which includeCoca-Cola,General

Electric nda Alibaba —the advertising

groupDentsu— w hich the Japan Olym-

pic committee hired to find sponsors —

has assembled a46-strong army fo

deep-pocketed Japanese sponsors. They

includeToyota,Panasonic, five financial

services giants, airlines, media groups

and household names from across the

Japanese corporate spectrum.

Toyota and Panasonic in particular

are treating the games as a global show-

case for their technologies. However,

the stakes are high for everyone, mak-

ing them reluctant toopenly discuss the

prospect of postponing the event.

Some sports bodies have raised con-

cerns about continuing with Games on

the current schedule, but the Interna-

tional Olympic Committee, the Games

organiser, remains insistent that the

world’s biggest sporting event will con-

tinue as planned in July and August.

Toshiro Muto, chief executive of

Tokyo 2020 organising committee, said:

“We are not commenting on any specu-

lations quoting anonymous sources.

Neither the IOC nor the organising com-

mittee are considering postponing the

Olympic Games and we are proceeding

with our preparations for a safe and

secure Games opening on 24 July 2020

as planned.”

This week, IOC officials flew to Olym-

pia in Greece for the lighting of the

Olympic flametoday, though the event

willbe witnessed by just 100 guests

rather than a wider group of spectators,

as previously planned.

Sporting events

Sponsors doubt Olympics start date

Prominent organiser says

time is running out to

prepare for postponement

M I L E S J O H N S O N A N D DAV I D E G H I G L I O N E
ROME

In Bergamo, a town in the foothills of the
Alps on the north-east of Milan, Doctor
Daniele Macchini used abreak in the
fight he andcolleagues are wagingon
coronavirus to warn the world.
“The war has exploded and the battles
are uninterrupted day and night. The
cases are multiplying, we have a rate of
15-20 admissions per day all for the
same reason,” he wrote on Facebook last
week. “There are no more surgeons,
urologists, orthopaedists, we are only
doctors who suddenly become part of a
single team to face this tsunami that has
overwhelmed us.”
The shared cry for help echoes warn-
ings issued by medical staff ,000km 8
away in Wuhan, where the virus
emerged, includingthat of Li Wenliang,
the ophthalmologist who became a hero
in China for raising the alarm, before
succumbing to the disease.
The outbreakacross northern Italy,
the largest outside of China,has pushed
its national health service to breaking
point, underlining the challenge other
European countries could face should
their strategy of containment fail.
Byyesterday, two days after a nation-
wide clampdown on travel and social
contact was imposed, the total number
of infections across Italy had increased
to 12,462 from 4,636 on Friday. While
about 8 per cent have since recovered
and at least 827 people have died, 1,
patients are currently in intensive care,
from 877 the previous day. Lombardy
has been facing a surge in acute cases. As
ofyesterday, the number of people
infected in Italy’s industrial heart had
risen to 5,791.
“Frankly, I don’t know for how long
the health system can cope, I don’t even
want to think about how it could end,”
Massimo Galli, head of the department
for infectious diseases at the Sacco Hos-
pital in Milan, told the Financial Times.

“We are holding up, but other hospitals

are much worse off than us and it is a

fact that we will be increasingly under

pressure in the coming days.”

Giorgio Gori, Bergamo mayor,

tweeted: “It seems that the increase [in

number of cases] is slowing down, but

it’s only because we have no longer beds

in intensive care (few are added with

great effort). Patients who cannot be

treated are left to die.”

There are signs the system is already

near capacity. In Veneto, which has 3.

beds per 1,000 people, 80 per cent of the

region’s 450 intensive care beds were

occupied as of Tuesday,67 of those

taken by coronavirus patients.

Government fears over the ability of

thesystem to absorb the strain have

prompted Giuseppe Conte, the prime

minister, to restrict internal movement

and public gatherings. “The numbers

tell us that we are having a large growth

in people in intensive care and, unfortu-

nately, the deceased,” he said.

The disparity between the number of

available hospital beds in Italy’s wealth-

ier north and its poorer south — the

result of regional health services being

centrally funded but regionally admin-

istered — is another source of concern: if

the system in Lombardy is under strain,

the consequences of a similar outbreak

further south could be catastrophic. As

of Tuesday there were 341 cases in the

Mezzogiorno, with 37 people in intensive

care. In the south, poor management

has resulted in swelling debts, with

some local health authorities also being

taken under central government con-

trol following mafia infiltration.

Lombardy has 3.7 hospital beds per

1,000 inhabitants, and 0.7 beds for long-

er-term illnesses according to the health

ministry.Last year, 700,000 southern

Italians were forced to head north to

receive healthcare, according to

research by Bocconi University. The

southern region of Calabriahas 2.9 hos-

pital beds per 1,000 residents.

“Calabria simply doesn’t have the

capacity to deal with an outbreak, there

are not enough beds in intensive care

departments to take in patients in seri-

ous condition,” said Massimo Scura, a

former Calabrian regional health com-

missioner. “The system here just

couldn’t cope”.

Massimo Scagliarini, chief executive

of GVS Group, one of Italy’s largest pro-

ducers of surgical masks, said the civil

protection agency hadasked his com-

pany to ramp upproduction —from

about 150,000 a month to 600,000.

These will be used by medical staff, and

also police and military personnel. “The

amounts hey need, we are talkingt

about millions,”he said. “The big prob-

lem being caused by the virus is that the

hospitals do not have enough resources

to manage critical care needs.”

Dr Galli said some people might think

the measures in place were exaggerated.

“I would like to say to them to come and

see what’s going on in our departments.”

Healthcare. edical warningsM

Sickness levels overwhelm Italian hospitals

Country highlights challenges

others face if they fail to

contain spread of disease

More inside

Editorial

Comment,

page 8

Opinion, page 9

Lex, page 10

See Companies

& Markets.

CORONAVIRUS

Outdoor ward:

medical staff

work in a tented

zone set up

outside a

hospital in

Brescia,

northern Italy,

on Tuesday

ClaudioFurlan/LaPresse/AP

China province at centre of original

outbreak begins gradual return to work

Cases so far:

The central Chinese province of Hubei, where corona-

virus emerged, has begun a staggered return to work.

Businesses in Wuhan, the provincial capital, were

allowed to return to work if they were important to

national or global supply chains and gained govern-

ment approval.

Economists at ANZ bank forecast that China was

likely to return to normality by the second week

next month.

Senate Democrats unveil proposals

to help citizens but US market jittery

Senate Democrats revealed a series of proposals that

they said would help American citizens suffering from

the coronavirus crisis, including expanding paid sick

leave, small business loans and rental and mortgage

assistance.

But party leaders have yet to reach agreement with

Republicans or Donald Trump’s administration on a

package that is likely to be approved, contributing to

jitters in the US stock market.

National trajectory of infection

Tensions rise as countries tussle over

crucial medical equipment supplies

Global trade in the medical equipment required to

counter the virus has become increasingly fractious as

national health systems raced to prepare for more

cases.

Germany blocked the export of several shipments of

supplies, such hygiene masks, to Switzerland, causing

consternation in the Swiss government.

Italy has said it is turning to China to obtain urgent

medical equipment to help its health service cope.

Putin says Russia is prepared to handle

turmoil that could offer ‘possibilities’

Vladimir Putin said Russia was well equipped to ride

out the global market turbulence sparked by the

coronavirus and recent oil price shocks.

The Russian president said: “Russia will go through

this turbulent period in a calm and dignified manner.”

Speaking to investors at his residence outside

Moscow, he added: “Processes like this can cause some

problems but there could also be some additional possi-

bilities [from the crisis].”

Iran

Italy

Japan

Other European countries

Singapore

Hong Kong

S Korea









    

Number of days since th case

Cumulative number of cases, by number of

days since th case

Source: FT analysis of Johns Hopkins University, CSSE

US

UK

US

 daily increase

121,

4,373 deaths by March 11 14:

Source: Johns Hopkins University, CSSE

Read more at ft.com/coronavirus

CORONAVIRUS

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