Thursday12 March 2020 ★ FINANCIAL TIMES 3
F T R E P O RT E R S
The Asian countries hardest hit by the
coronavirus have taken different
approaches to testing.
Official data suggest the rate of new
infections in China, where the outbreak
started, has slowed. A similar trend had
been observed in South Korea, before
thebiggest one-day increase ni ases inc
Seoulyesterday. But while some experts
have heralded the results as early signs
of success, others warn of problems with
under-testing and accuracy.
South Korea conducted mass tests
South Koreayesterday reported 242
new cases, taking the total to 7,755. The
increase came with a new cluster of
infections at a call centre in Seoul and
marked a reversal of four consecutive
days of declining new infections.
Seoul has rolled out a mass public
testing programme. Officials have
sought to test anyone who might have
been exposed to the virus, including
many asymptomatic patients. More
than 210,000 tests have been conducted
with as many as 10,000 new tests con-
ducted each day. The mortality rate has
remained below 1 per cent.
Hong Ki-ho, a doctor at Seoul Medical
Centre, believed the accuracy of the
coronavirus tests was “99 per cent — the
highest in the world”. He pointed to the
rapid commercial development and
deployment of new test kits enabled by
a fast-tracked regulatory process.
“We have allowed test kits based on
WHO (World Health Organization) pro-
tocols and never followed China’s test
methods,” Dr Hong said.
But Choi Jae-wook, a medical profes-
sor of preventive medicine at Korea Uni-
versity, remained worried. “Many of the
kits used at the beginning stage of theoutbreak were the same as those in
China where the accuracy was ques-
tioned... We have been hesitating to
voice our concern because this could
worry the public even more.”China focuses on severe cases
Coronavirus has infected more than
80,000 people and killed more than
3,000 in mainland China, but the
number of new infections reported each
day is declining, according to govern-
ment data. On Tuesday, authorities said
the number of new cases had fallen to
thelowest evel since January.l
Beijing said that showed itslockdown
of millions of people had worked.
Epidemiologists, however, have
warned that a lack of testing capacity
has led to vast undercounting. China’s
propensity to exclude less severe cases
from their testing regime means the
ratio of deaths to confirmed cases is 3.
per cent, which is probably a higher fig-
ure than if more people were tested.
The problem of testing capacity in
China is exacerbated by the low sensi-
tivity of the tests: experts say only 30-
50 per cent of positive cases are detected
with the kits available in the country.Japan accused of testing shortfall
For weeks after the outbreak began,
Japan tested only people with linksAsia’s contrasting strategies prompt
fears on under-testing and accuracy
Mass examinations in South Korea are at odds with China’s focus on severe cases
Medical staff
take samples
from people at
a building in
Seoul,
South Korea,
where 46 people
were confirmed
to have the
coronavirus
ChungSung-Jun/Getty‘We have
allowed testkits based
on WHOprotocols
and neverfollowed
China’s testmethods’
Seoul Medical
Centre doctorH A N N A H M U R P H Y— SEATTLE
On Monday mornings, the Amazon dog
park in central Seattle typically throngs
with staff from the technology com-
pany’s nearby headquarters, walking
and playing catch with their pets.
But this week, the once social commu-
nity space is an eerie ghost town. “It’s
apocalyptic,” said Kerry Lusignan, who
works for a dog-walking service and is
the only person in the park. “[And] it
was so abrupt.”
The sudden emptiness came after
Amazon last week ordered the majority
of its Seattle workforce to work from
home in an effort to curb the spread of
coronavirus.
Over the past fortnight, the US’s third-
fastest growing city and the surrounding
Washington state have become the epi-
centre of an unfolding west coast out-
break, and a test case for how US
authorities will respond to the crisis.
Following the discovery of a handful
of cases at a nursing home just east of
the city, the spread has reached a stage
of “community transmission”, meaning
that recent infections have no clear
links to known cases. Residents’ every-
day lives have been upended as a result.
Big tech companies with a presence in
the region — Microsoft, Google and
Facebook — are encouraging thousands
of employees to work remotely, and the
local businesses that serve them are
being forced to shut up shop.
Streets are almost silent, schools and
universities are closing and conferences
have been cancelled. The spectre of a
lockdown — if cases surge as they have
in Italy and Iran — looms.
“The reality is setting in [and] there’s
a whole bunch of these second- and
third-order effects,” said Matt McIl-
wain, managing director ofventure cap-
ital firm Madrona Venture Group, citing
employees who are unsure how to care
for their children while schools are
closed. “There’s a growing, broadening
nervousness about the uncertainty.”
Washington authorities have con-
firmed 166 cases of the virus and 22
deaths, including many older residents
in the nursing facility — the most fatali-
ties of any US state.
Scientists modelling the spread say
there are likely to be more cases, as test-
ing catches up. Trevor Bedford, a biolo-
gist and infectious diseases expert at
Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research
Center, estimated last week that there
could about 600 infections, a number
that would have since multiplied.
Decisive action by deep-pocketed
technology companies, such as sending
workers home, have come as Seattle’s
under-resourced local authorities and
strained public health facilities scram-ble to contain the outbreak and lobby
President Donald Trump to lend more
resources to their cause.
Among their most pressing requests
are calls for moretesting its, afterk
checks for the virus were initially car-
ried out only in strict circumstances.
“The lack of testing was a significant
hindrance to our region’s ability to
detect and respond to this disease. Weare still playing catch-up with that,”
Jenny Durkan, Seattle’s mayor, told the
Financial Times, adding that the region
was on the brink of broad-scale testing.
Others have stepped in to lend sup-
port. The Bill & Melinda Gates Founda-
tion, which has committed $5m to help
Seattle public health agencieswith
detection, is working to provide home
testing kits.
In a meeting last week with Mike
Pence, US vice-president, Ms Durkan
said she had demanded more equip-
ment from the national stockpile,
including masks, gowns and respirators,
and support from disaster medical
assistance teams. The meeting had been
“positive”, she said, but she could not
comment on whether and when the fed-eral government might deliver on her
requests.
Some warn that any responses will be
too little, too late, raising fears that Seat-
tle may soon follow in the footsteps of
Italy, which has put in placea sweeping
lockdown. But Ms Durkan said: “Italy
has taken extreme steps because it
didn’t respond as quickly as it could do
to the crisis. We are trying to make sure
we are not in that same category.”
Brian McGowan, chief executive of
the economic development group
Greater Seattle Partners, said he was
optimistic the city’s “innovative” busi-
ness community can provide a “good
test case” for how to handle an outbreak
if it hits other regions.
Many of the largest companies,
including Starbucks, Microsoft and
Amazon, have donated to funds sup-
porting other businesses.
Still, some companies are beginning
to suffer. “All the hotels out here are
haemorrhaging rooms, 50 or 60 a day,”
said Chuck, a worker at one chain, add-
ing that room rates had dropped.
At Seattle’s Pike Place Market, a hub
of local commerce and tourism, there is
still a trickle of visitors. But Willy, an
employee at the Pure Food Fish stall,
said the past 10 days had been unprece-
dented. “It’s spring... This week is not
supposed to be this slow. It’s all perisha-
ble stuff, we’ve got to sell it,” he said, ges-
turing to stands full of salmon, halibut
and shellfish.Washington state. usiness reactionB
Central Seattle turns into ghost town
Seattle: the US’s
third-fastest
growing city is
the epicentre of
an unfolding west
coast outbreakD E M E T R I S E VA STO P U LO— WASHINGTONThe US Treasury is considering post-
poning the April 15 tax filing deadline
to help reduce the economic pain from
the coronavirus outbreak, as Donald
Trump’s administration seeks biparti-
san support for a stimulus package to
bolstertheeconomy.A senior US official said that pushing
back the tax filing deadline was one of
several options under consideration,
but cautioned that a final decision had
not been taken. Postponing the deadline
would temporarily ease cash flow and
liquidity crunches for individuals and
companies at a time of uncertainty
about the outbreak’s economic impact.
The US president and his economic
team, including Steven Mnuchin, Treas-
ury secretary, held talks with Republi-
cans on Capitol Hillthis week to help
determine what kind ofstimulus meas-
ures ould generate enough support tow
pass. The administration is trying to
convince lawmakers to support a cut in
payroll taxes until the end of the year —
a provocative proposal amid Mr
Trump’s re-election campaign.
Doug Holtz-Eakin, a former senior
White House budget official who runs
the American Action Forum think-tank,
said it was doubtful that postponing the
tax deadline would have a sustained
impact on the economy.“Nobody’s tax liability gets changed,”
Mr Holtz-Eakin said. “I am not a fan of
one-offs. This is going to be a sustained
headwind and they ought to have a sus-
tained response... Is this another
attempt at instilling confidence with a
relatively superficial move or do they
genuinely believe it will work?”
The proposal was first reported by the
Wall Street Journal. Efforts to formulate
measures to ease the economic impact
of theoutbreak come as the number of
infected people in the US grows rapidly
— and is expected to accelerate in the
coming days as production of testing
kits is increased and more people are
tested. According to data compiled by
Johns Hopkins University, 1,050 people
in the US have tested positive for coro-
navirus and 29 have died.
Members of the White House corona-
virus task force have stressed that while
the risk to most people remains low, the
number of cases is expected to increase
as more testing is conducted.
“We will see more cases and things
will get worse than they are right now,”
Anthony Fauci, the head of the US
National Institute of Allergy and Infec-
tious Diseases,saidyesterday.
The administration has come under
criticism for early problems with dis-
tributing sufficient numbers oftest kits.
Officials have said that 4m kits will have
been distributed by the end of this week.Economic impact
US Treasury eyes tax filing
extension to ease cash flow
West coast tech hub is test
case for how US authorities
will respond tocrisis
C O R O N AV I R U S
South Korea’s testing stands out
Source: FT research*Only includes tests done away from hospitals **No figure available for the total
number of tests administered to date; currently carried out dailyTests per million people, as of Mar Cases per million
S Korea
Italy
Switzerland
Germany*
Netherlands
Austria
Sweden
Spain
UK
Hong Kong
Belgium
Malaysia
Japan
US
France** S E BA ST I A N PAY N E A N D C H R I S G I L E S
LONDONRishi Sunak ended a decade of UK aus-
terity in his first Budget with a big
increase in public spending and a
£12bn emergency fiscal stimulus to
counter the shock of the coronavirus
outbreak.The UK finance minister acknowledged
that the disease would cause “tempo-
rary disruption” to the economy but
said the government would take neces-
sary action to cushion the impact. The
£12bn of new money comes on top of
£18bn already earmarked for public
spending not related to tackling the
effects of the virus.
Unveiling measures to support busi-
nesses, which are expected to take a
heavy hit due to coronavirus, Mr Sunak
also pledged to pour money into the
National Health Service, saying it would
have however many “millions or bil-
lions” it required to tackle the disease.
He also announced that statutory sick
pay would be available to all those
advised to self-isolate because of the
virus, with the government refunding
the cost to businesses for up to 14 days at
a cost of £2bn.
Mr Sunak’s statement marked the
end of adecade of austerity, with signifi-
cant increases in capital and day-to-day
spending. Public sector net investment
is set to rise from close to 2 per cent of
national income to 3 per cent.
Borrowing forecasts have increased
significantly. In 2020-21, the govern-
ment will borrow 2.4 per cent of GDP, up
from 1.8 per cent forecast in March- In 2022-23, the UK will borrow
2.5 per cent of national income, up from
1.5 per cent.
The chancellor hinted there would be
m o re s p e n d i n g t o c o m e , a s h e
announced a review of the Treasury’s
fiscal rules. He stated that his Budget
would be “delivered within the fiscal
rules of the manifesto but with room to
spare”.
However, even without the impact of
coronavirus, the Office for Budget
Responsibility has revised down its fore-
casts for growth. In 2020, growth is pro-
jected at 1.1 per cent, down from 1.4 per
cent in last year’s forecast.
The OBR is forecasting 2021 growth of
1.8 per cent, up from 1.6 per cent. In the
medium term, growth is projected to be
1.5 per cent in 2022, down from 1.6 per
cent, and in 2023 1.3 per cent, down
from 1.6 per cent.
Other measures to help businesses
cope with the impact of coronavirus
included a loan guarantee scheme for
banks lending to small businesses on
amounts of up to £1.2m.
Business rates will also be scrapped
for the next year for hospitality compa-
nies, venue owners, galleries and cine-
masto help cushion the blow from
decreased demand. All duties on alco-
hol were also frozen.
All smaller businesses that pay no
business rates will receive a £3,000 cash
grant, worth a total of £3bn.
Budget
UK lifts public
spending to
offset shock
of outbreak
to Wuhan, the heart of China’s outbreak.
Japan has tested fewer than 10,
and there have been 513 confirmed
diagnoses, according to the Ministry of
Health, Labour and Welfare.Critics
claim the government is trying to mini-
mise cases to rescue this summer’s
Tokyo Olympics.
But Yasuyuki Sahara t the ministrya
said the reality was more prosaic: lim-
ited capacity to perform the polymerase
chain reaction tests used to confirm the
presence of the virus.
Tokyo has prioritisedaccuracy over
volume, with centralised control over
who was tested. That explains why
South Korea was able to increase testing
when Japan could not. The number of
tests carried out, however, is still falling
short of Japan’s claimed capacity of
4,000 a day.Italy echoes South Korea strategy
Italy has quarantined the entire country
after an outbreakin the north turned
into a national crisis. The death toll
leapt to more than 600yesterday and
confirmed cases exceeded 10,000.
Italy has tested anyone who might
have been exposed to the virus, as well
as those with symptoms.
Edward White in Seoul, Robin Harding in
Tokyo, Yuan Yang in Beijing and Davide
Ghiglione in RomeMARCH 12 2020 Section:World Time: 11/3/2020- 18:06 User:ian.holdsworth Page Name:WORLD2 USA, Part,Page,Edition:USA, 3, 1