4 ★ FINANCIAL TIMES Thursday12 March 2020
I N T E R N AT I O N A L
I
t is too early to say the Democratic nomination is all
over bar the shouting. Bernie Sanders tends to project
his voice and has not dropped out yet. But the out-
come is no longer in much doubt.
Joe Biden’s victories in at least four of the six states
that voted in this “mini-Super Tuesday’ — four of which
Mr Sanders had won in 2016 against Hillary Clinton — puts
the former vice-president into an almost prohibitive lead.
Next week’s delegate-rich Florida primary could put
him beyond reach. Therealquestion is how long before
Mr Sanders bows to the inevitable, and on what terms. On
thatfraughtnegotiation — Mr Sanders’ price for endorsing
Mr Biden — will hang the unity, or disunity, of the Demo-
cratic party.
But America’s mind had shifted to the epidemic even
before these latest primaries. The grim reality of the
spreading coronavirus has rapidly taken hold in the last
few days. As the political class speculated over the next
round of voting, Americans woke up to the prospect of
closing schools, remote working, temporary lay-offs, flight
cancellations and the overnight arrival of the new
etiquette of “social distancing”.
The creeping Italianisation of America’s response has all
but shut down the live element of the Democratic cam-
paigns. Both Mr Biden and Mr Sanders have cancelled
future rallies. Their next debate — the first with just two of
them — will take place on Sunday without an audience.
The question of whether America should adopt Italian-
style containment is increasingly driving out other
issues. Mr Biden will give an addresstoday laying out
how he would tackle the
epidemic. Donald Trump
is feeding conspiracy
theories that Democrats
are exaggerating the
contagion to trigger a
recession. Shortly after
Mr Biden said that he
was cancelling rallies, the
US president announced
his own mass gathering this weekend in Milwaukee.
As symbolic gestures go, Mr Trump’s addiction to rallies
may prove recklessly consequential. Just two weeks ago
Mr Trump told America that the number of coronavirus
infections was likely to fall to zero. The tally of homegrown
infections stood at 15 then. Now 984 are confirmed with
the virus. Were the US testing its citizens on the same scale
as other countries, the true figure might be as high as
20,000, say epidemiologists — and rising exponentially.
The gap between what Mr Trump says and reality cannot
be fixed on Twitter.
The second issue is an increasingly nasty exchange over
mental health. Mr Trump says Mr Biden “doesn’t know
where he is or what he’s doing”. Rudy Giuliani, his personal
lawyer, said Mr Biden had “dementia”. There is no
evidence Mr Biden is suffering from anything other than
ageing combined with a life-long stutter. To minimise the
opportunities for gaffes — or “Bidenisms” — his aides have
sharply curtailed his public addresses to a few minutes.
Mr Trump’s team has no such control over the length or
content of his appearances. The president’s claim to know
more about epidemics than the experts — partly because
his uncle was a scientist — reinforces questions about his
own mental health. Mr Biden has been responding in kind.
Last weekend he ridiculed Mr Trump’s self-description as
a “very stable genius”.
That debate is brewing amid an epidemic that could
trigger a US recession. Bloomberg’s average of forecasters
now put the chances of that happening at over 50 per cent.
A recession would be highly damaging to Mr Trump’s
re-election chances, as could the perception that he is
mismanaging the epidemic.
There is also a non-trivial risk that Mr Trump, Mr Biden
and Mr Sanders will be exposed to the virus n theo
campaign trail. Each is likelier to be shaking more hands
than almost any other American. Even with a shift to
shoulder-clasping, and lots of hand sanitiser, they can
hardly stick to the rules of social distancing. As septuage-
narians, America’s presidential contenders are in a very
high risk category.
All of which puts a very different gloss to the customary
“stakes are high” election clichés. Welcome to a presiden-
tial campaign about the candidates’ sanity. Welcome also
to politics in a time of contagion.[email protected]GLOBAL INSIGHT
WASHINGTON
Edward
Luce
Time of contagion
gives new meaning to
‘high stakes election’
Each presidential
contender is likelier
to be shaking morehands than almost
any other AmericanA N N A N I C O L AO U— NEW YORK
Harvey Weinstein has been sentenced
to 23 years in prison for sex crimes
including rape.
Judge James Burke handed down the
sentence to the former Hollywood
heavyweight yesterday, after the
women he is convicted of abusing gave
emotional statements to the courtroom.
Miriam Haley, who alleged that Wein-
stein forced oral sex on her while she
worked as a production assistant in
2006, told the court that he “stripped
me of my dignity as a human being”.
She said she was “relieved there are
women who are safer because he is not
out there”.
Weinstein faced a minimum of five
years in prison after beingconvicted
of criminal sexual assault last month in
a decision that was viewed as a land-
mark legal test of the#MeToo move-
ment, which was ignited three years ago
by allegations against the disgraced
movie producer.
Weinstein was brought by wheelchair
into the courtroom, where he faced the
six women who had testified against
him, itting together in the front row. Hes
broke his silence in court, speaking for
about 10 minutes about how he was
“totally confused”, and mentioning his
contributions to charity after Hurricane
Sandy and the September 11 attacks.
The six women accusers — including
Ms Haley, Jessica Mann andSopranos
actor Annabella Sciorra — embraced
each other in tears as they left the court-
room alongside New York prosecutors.
Spectators in the hallway cheered and
clapped, shouting “justice”.
The 67-year-old has been detained atNew York’s Rikers Island jail since
undergoing heart surgery last week.
Judge Burke revoked bail after the jury
verdict at trial and Weinstein has been
in custody pending his sentencing.
“Although this is the first conviction,
it is not the first offence,” Judge Burke
said in his sentencing remarks.
Weinstein denied the charges and
his lawyers have indicated they will
appeal. Speaking to reporters outside
the courtyesterday, lead defence attor-
ney DonnaRotunno said the sentence
was “absurd”.
The high-profile case encompassed
five charges against Weinstein based on
two alleged incidents: raping Ms Mann,
an aspiring actress, in 2013 and forcing
oral sex on Ms Haley n 2006.i
After weeks ofdramatic testimony yb
women alleging that Weinstein preyed
upon them, the jury determined last
month that he was guilty of two of the
five felony charges. They found himguilty of a first-degree criminal sexual
act, which rested upon the testimony of
Ms Haley, and third-degree rape
charges in connection with the allega-
tions from Ms Mann.
The jury acquitted Weinstein of the
most serious charges against him, pred-
atory sexual assault, which carried a
sentence up to life in prison.
Weinstein’s lawyers had argued that,
at his age, a sentence longer than the
minimum five years would be a “de
facto life sentence”. In a letter submitted
to Judge Burke this week, his defence
team called for mercy, claiming that
Weinstein had already suffered a “his-
toric” fall from grace and “cannot walk
outside without being heckled”.
Weinstein was sentenced to 20 years
in prison for the criminal sexual act fel-
ony, which carries a maximum sentence
of 25 years, and three years for the third-
degree rape conviction, which carries a
maximum sentence of four years.US court ruling
Weinstein sentenced to 23 years in jail
Former movie mogul was
convicted last month of
sex crimes including rape
‘Although
this is thefirst
conviction,it is not the
firstoffence’
Judge James
BurkeD E M E T R I S E VA STO P U LO— WASHINGTON
Joe Biden moved closer to erasing
Bernie Sanders’ chances of claiming the
Democraticpresidential nomination
afterwinning at least four of the six
states, includingMichigan nd Missis-a
sippi, that voted in primaries on Tues-
day.
The former US vice-president won a
diverse group of states with a broad coa-
lition that included African-Americans
in Mississippi, suburban voters in Mis-
souri and more liberal voters in Wash-
ington where he was neck and neck with
Mr Sanders with two-thirds of the vote
counted.
But his biggest prize was Michigan,
the state with the most delegates that
Mr Sanders won in 2016 as part of his
failed battle with Hillary Clinton. Mr
Biden took the state with 53 per cent of
the vote, to Mr Sanders’ 36 per cent.
Coming after 10 wins in 14 states on
“Super Tuesday” last week, this under-
scored how quickly Mr Biden, whose
campaign was teetering on the brink
two weeks ago, has rapidly attracted a
majority of Democrats who have
rejected the self-declaredsocialism fo
Mr Sanders.
“I’m not sure what Sanders’ path to
victory looks like or if it even exists,”
said Nathan Gonzales, a political ana-
lyst. “Thirty per cent of the vote was for-
midable in a crowded field, but 30 per
cent of the vote in a one-on-one race just
isn’t enough. The proportional alloca-
tion of delegates makes it difficult to
make up a lot of ground, particularly
when some of the biggest states have
already voted.”
In another shift that showed how Mr
Sanders has failed to expand his move-
ment, Mr Biden won 49-43 per cent in
Idaho, which Mr Sanders won by 57
points in 2016. The senator was locked
in a tight race with hisrival in Washing-
ton state, where he beat Mrs Clinton by
46 points four years ago.
Mr Sanders won North Dakota, but it
was the smallest prize with only 14 dele-
gates. In a result that again revealed his
Achilles heel — his lack of support from
black voters — he lost Mississippi, which
Mr Biden won with 81 per cent. In a state
with the highest proportion of African
Americans in the Democratic electorate
at roughly 70 per cent, Mr Biden won 87
per cent of black voters, according to
exit polls.
The former vice-president has
stretched his lead in the race by 66 dele-
gates to 857-709, making itharder for his
rival to get the 1,991 o win the nomina-t
tion at the Democratic convention in
July. Propelled by the big victory in
South Carolina that sparked the exit of
most of his rivals before Super Tuesday,
Mr Biden hasexpanded his base, while
Mr Sanders has gained little from the
departure of his fellow progressive Sen-
ator Elizabeth Warren from the race.
President Donald Trump rubbed salt
in the wound, saying that Ms Warren
had “totally destroyed” Mr Sanders’
campaign by not dropping out before
Super Tuesday. “If she would have quit
three days earlier, Sanders would have
beaten Biden in a route [sic], it wouldn’t
even have been close. They also got two
other losers to support Sleepy Joe!”
Two weeks ago, establishment Demo-
crats were looking more to Michael
Bloomberg, the former New York Citymayor, as Mr Biden stumbled. But he
staged a quickrebound. Exit polls
showed that 55 per cent of those who
voted for him in Washington made up
their minds after South Carolina. In
Michigan, it was 74 per cent, while 55
per cent of those who backed Mr Sand-
ers decided before the first contest in
Iowa.
Defeat in Michigan was a hardblow
for the Vermont senator, who badly
needed a win after a string of losses that
have undermined his claim to be the
candidate best suited to facing Mr
Trump.
Mr Sanders argues that the only way
to beat the president is to ensure record
turnout in November by bringing out
young and new voters. But while he has
won strong support from young people,
he has only won seven states.
Speaking in Vermontyesterday, Mr
Sanders said he would continue in the
race, even after what he had conceded
was a bad night on Tuesday. “While our
campaign has won the ideological
debate, we are losing the debate over
electability.”Michigan also revealed a pattern that
has emerged in many of the 24 states
that have held contests so far —most
Democrats want a candidate who can
beat Mr Trump. In Michigan, 63 per
cent of voters who said the party should
pick a nominee who could beat the pres-
ident went for Mr Biden. That number
was higher in Missouri, where 70 per
cent of the same group voted for him
and bigger still in Mississippi at 86 per
cent.
Speaking in Philadelphia, Mr Biden
urged his rival’s supporters to help him
unite the partyto defeat Mr Trump. “I
want to thank Bernie Sanders and his
supporters for their tireless energy and
their passion. We share a common goal
and together we’ll defeat Donald
Trump,” said Mr Biden.
But in an ominous sign for Democrats,
48 per cent of oters who backed Mrv
Sanders in Michigan replied “No” when
asked if they would vote for the Demo-
crat in November, regardless of who was
the nominee.
Editorial Comment age 8p
Janan Ganesh age 9pDemocratic race. inal hurdlesF
Biden closes in on nomination
Broad coalition of support
includes African Americans,
suburban voters and liberals
On a roll:
Joe Biden, with
his wife Jill,
arrives for a
primary night
speech at The
National
Constitution
Center in
Philadelphia
on Tuesday
Brendan McDermid/ReutersA N J L I R AVA L— LONDON
SaudiArabiatriedtoputfreshpressure
ontheoilpricebyinstructingthestate-
owned Saudi Aramco to increase its
maximum production capacity to 13m
barrelsaday.
Saudi Aramco versees 12m barrels ao
day of the kingdom’s 12.5m b/d produc-
tion capacity — the maximum Opec’s
largest producer is able to pump each
day. But in a statement to the Tadawul
stock exchange, the group saidyester-
day it had received a directive from the
energy ministry just a day after Riyadh
said it would supply the market with
12.3m b/d, escalating anoil price war.
Saudi Arabia on Saturday slashed its
export prices after Russia refused to
deepen and prolong the joint supply
curbs it had agreed with Opec, the pro-
ducers’ cartel, arguing the cuts served
only to subsidise the US shale industry.
The failure to agree on a production
deal in response to the demand-sapping
coronavirus outbreak has led to the
effective collapse of an alliance that had
been in place for the past three years.
Russia insisted on Tuesday that it,
too, could also increase its production,
and announced that its central bank
would tap its $570bn in foreign reserves
in response to the oil shock and the
coronavirus crisis.However, yesterday’s
announcement from Saudi Arabia
marks a fresh salvo in a tit-for-tat battle
between Moscow and Riyadh.
The US has criticised the price war as
“attempts by state actors to manipulate
and shock oil markets”. With its shale
industry in the line of fire, the Depart-
ment of Energy said this week that as
“the world’s largest producer of oil and
gas, [the US] can, and will, withstand
this volatility”.
TheAbu Dhabi National Oil om-C
pany, the UAE’s state producer, said yes-
terday it would also raise production, tomore than 4m b/d, as the price war rip-
pled across the energy industry, bring-
ing in other leading producer nations.
Oil prices posted one of the biggest
one-day falls in history on Monday, with
Brent crude dropping as low as $31.02 a
barrel.Yesterday morning Brent crude
was trading at $36.90 a barrel.
Saudi Aramco’s share price has also
taken a hit in recent days, falling below
last year’s initial public offering price, to
as low as SAR 28.35.
Saudi Arabia has long said it can pro-
duce 12m b/d on a sustained basis,
although oil analysts suggest the realis-
tic level is lower, at about 11m b/d. Saudi
Aramco did not say how long it would
take to increase capacity to 13m b/d.
The kingdom has spent decades
investing in its spare production
capacity, historically used to unleash
more barrels on to the market when
shortages emerge because of short-term
disruptions.Energy
Riyadh tells Saudi Aramco to lift oil capacity
L AU R A P I T E L— ANKARAAli Babacan, Turkey’s former deputy
prime minister, hit out at the country’s
“misguided and populist” economic
management as he launched a new
party aimed at challenging President
RecepTayyipErdogan’sgriponpower.Mr Babacan was a founding member of
Mr Erdogan’s ruling Justice and Devel-
opment party (AKP) and held several
positions in the president’s cabinet,
including spending many years in
charge of the economy portfolio.
But speaking at the launch of his Deva
party — whose name means “remedy”
in Turkish — he said the perception of
the government had “seriously
changed” in recent years.
Launching a thinly veiled attack on
Mr Erdogan’s increasinglyauthoritarian
leadership, he told supporters: “Instead
of rules we have arbitrariness, instead of
institutionalised governance we havepersonalised governance, instead of
meritocracy we have favouritism.”
Mr Erdogan has been accused of erod-
ing the rule of law and adopting a highly
personalised style of leadership in
recent years, with ramifications for all
aspects of life in the country, from free-
dom of expression to the economy.
Since taking to the helm under a new
system of governance in 2018, he has
exerted tighter control over thecoun-
try’s economic institutions.
Mr Babacan said Turkey had gone
fromthe brink of joining the world’s
high-income countries to being “caught
in the middle-income trap due to the
misguided and populist policies wit-
nessed in recent years”.
He promised to help the country shift
to a more high-tech, export-orientated
growth model, adding: “This country
has a very high growth potential but it is
not possible in this climate.”
Mr Babacan is the second of two AKPveterans to quit the party in recent
months and launch splinter movements
in an attempt tocapitalise on Mr
Erdogan’swaning support. Ahmet Dav-
utoglu, the former prime minister,
launched his Future party n December.i
The president has lashed out at both
men, warning that they would “pay a
heavy price” for their “betrayal”.
A key plank of Mr Babacan’s pitch to
the electorate is that he would restore
strong growth. Rising prosperity long
served as the backbone of the AKP’s
public support but the country suffered
its first recession in a decade after a 2018
currency crisis hat triggered soaringt
inflation and a rise in unemployment.
Inside Turkey, critics of the ruling
party are mistrustful of the former AKP
minister, who served in Mr Erdogan’s
cabinet until 2015. They accuse him of
being complicit in the erosion of human
rightsas well as what they see as the
AKP’s Islamist agenda.Turkey
Erdogan rule challenged by former minister
MARCH 12 2020 Section:World Time: 11/3/2020- 18:34 User:ian.holdsworth Page Name:WORLD3 USA, Part,Page,Edition:USA, 4, 1