The Wall Street Journal - 12.03.2020

A4| Thursday, March 12, 2020 PWLC101112HTGKRFAM123456789OIXX **** THE WALL STREET JOURNAL.

U.S. NEWS

American people will have the

opportunity to see which can-

didate is best positioned to ac-

complish that goal.”

But his path to the nomina-

tion has grown so difficult

that big-money Democratic

groups that remained neutral

for much of the race have now

declared Mr. Biden, a former

vice president, the likely nomi-

nee. In a speech Tuesday night

in Philadelphia, Mr. Biden was

already looking ahead to a

general election against the

Republican Mr. Trump, thank-

ing Mr. Sanders and his sup-

porters “for their tireless en-

ergy and their passion.”

Mr. Sanders’s loss in Michi-

gan—the biggest delegate

prize of the night and a state

he won in the 2016 prima-

ries—was a particularly hard-

hitting blow because Mr. Sand-

ers has argued that he is the

Trump, he said, “has energized

young voters like no other Re-

publican candidate before him,

while it’s clear that Joe Biden

will have a youth problem.” Exit

polls showed Mr. Biden trailing

Mr. Sanders by 4-to-1 among

voters under age 30 in Michi-

gan.

Mr. Biden benefited from the

same surge of affluent, college-

educated voters who helped re-

vive his campaign in Super

Tuesday voting last week and

make him the Democratic pri-

mary front-runner. But he also

won substantial victories among

blue-collar voters in Michigan,

the first Midwestern industrial

state to vote and one of the

most important battlegrounds

for the fall.

While Mr. Sanders has prom-

ised to ignite a grass-roots,

workers’ movement, it was Mr.

Biden who united the Demo-

cratic Party’s professional class

and its working class.

Combined with Mr. Biden’s

strength among black voters,

the results suggest that Mr.

Sanders is having trouble build-

ing support beyond his base of

young voters—a shrinking share

of the voter pool, compared

with 2016—and Hispanic voters,

who didn’t have a large pres-

ence in the states that voted on

Tuesday.

Mr. Biden can point to Tues-

day’s results to support his

claim to have the stronger ap-

peal among two voting groups

important to his party’s pros-

pects in November.

One is the white, working-

class voters of the industrial

Midwest, whom Mr. Trump

moved so successfully into the

GOP in Michigan, Pennsylvania,

Wisconsin and Ohio. The other

group is college-educated, sub-

urban voters who swung behind

Democratic candidates in 2018

and gave them a majority in the

House.

Two counties in Michigan

show Mr. Biden’s strength with

these groups—and how much

ground Mr. Sanders has lost

since his 2016 campaign.

With its cluster of hospitals

and “medical mile,” Kent County

includes Grand Rapids and has

many of the voters with college

and advanced degrees who are

increasingly aligning with the

Democratic Party. Mr. Sanders

won it by 25 points in 2016. In a

significant reversal, he narrowly

lost the county on Tuesday.

Voting surged by 50% over

2016 levels in Kent County, but

Mr. Sanders barely kept pace

with his vote total from the last

election.

Macomb County, outside De-

troit, includes auto industry em-

ployers and many blue-collar

workers. Mr. Sanders had kept

the race close there in 2016,

winning 47% of the vote. But he

was routed on Tuesday, carrying

only 35% to Mr. Biden’s 51%.

Bernie Porn, president of the

polling firm Epic MRA, said he

believed many voters who cast

ballots on Tuesday had skipped

primaries in the past and voted

only in general elections, an

idea that can be tested in about

a month, when the state up-

dates its voter data.

Both counties backed Mr.

Trump in 2016, then two years

later supported Democrats for

the Senate and governor.

Nearly 380,000 more people

voted in Michigan this year than

in the state’s 2016 Democratic

primary, a 30% increase. And

yet Sen. Bernie Sanders, in all-

but-complete results, wound up

with fewer votes than last time.

Former Vice President Joe Bi-

den, alone, benefited from the

surge.

Of all the statistics arising

from Mr. Biden’s dominating

victories in four Tuesday prima-

ries, those numbers are among

the most revealing about the

Democratic Party as it sorts out

its presidential nominee.

Analysts said the results sig-

naled that Mr. Biden was unify-

ing the party, leaving Mr. Sand-

ers with few voter groups with

which to build a competing co-

alition. And the big uptick in

Democratic turnout, they said,

suggested that Michigan likely

would be tougher for President

Trump than in 2016, when he

carried the state by fewer than

11,000 votes.

“I don’t know how you read

the results any other way than

that Michigan will be a more

challenging state for the presi-

dent,” said Whit Ayres, a poll-

ster and analyst whose clients

have included Republican sena-

tors and presidential candi-

dates.

Tim Murtaugh, communica-

tions director for Mr. Trump’s

re-election campaign, said that

his coalition is growing. Mr.

BYAARONZITNER

ANDDANTECHINNI

Michigan Results Are a Warning for Trump

0

10

20%

25% 50 75

Sanders'svoteshareinMichigancounties,shownbyshareof

voterswithabachelor'sdegreeorhigher

SHARE WITH A BACHELOR’S DEGREELOST WON

Note: Vote share based on combined Sanders and Biden vote total.

Sources: Associated Press (results), L2 voter file (demographics)

2020

2016 Kent

SANDERS’S VOTE SHARE

best candidate to beat

Mr. Trump in Midwestern

states.

The Vermont senator and

his campaign are hoping that a

strong performance during

Sunday’s debate, which will

take place without a live audi-

ence because of coronavirus

concerns, will help save his

floundering campaign.

“The dynamic of a one-on-

one debate is much different

than the dynamic of a one-

on-10,” spokesman Mike Casca

said. “We feel that the senator

will have enough room in a

two-hour debate with one

other candidate to really

strongly lay out the case for

why his agenda is one that can

be done.”

Even with a stellar debate

performance, aides to Mr.

Sanders acknowledge his

chances of being the Demo-

cratic nominee are slim fol-

lowing Tuesday night’s wallop-

ing. Next Tuesday, they are

hoping for a victory in Ari-

zona, where roughly one-third

of the population is Hispanic,

a demographic with which the

senator has expanded his sup-

port this cycle. But Mr. Sand-

ers lost the state by 18 points

in 2016, and recent polling has

shown Mr. Biden ahead.

Aides are also hoping for

strong performances, if not

outright wins, in Ohio and Illi-

nois. Mr. Sanders lost Ohio by

14 points and Illinois by 2

points in 2016. One poll re-

leased this year in Illinois had

Mr. Sanders ahead of a still-

fractured field. Ohio hasn’t

had Democratic primary poll-

ingthisyear.

The result in Michigan ap-

pears to bode ill for Mr. Sand-

ers in those nearby states. In

the days leading up to the vote

in Michigan, Mr. Sanders all

but camped out in the state

and moved key aides in. He in-

creased his criticism of Mr. Bi-

den for supporting trade deals

such as the North American

Free Trade Agreement. Mr. Bi-

den, however, won by 16.

points.

Mr. Sanders’s aides ac-

knowledge that Florida, which

offers the most pledged dele-

gates of the states voting next

week and which he lost by 32

points four years ago, will be

difficult. The self-described

democratic socialist has

praised parts of Fidel Castro’s

legacy, while condemning the

oppressive actions of the Cu-

ban dictator, which hasn’t

gone over well with Florida’s

large Cuban population.

Mr. Sanders’s aides, how-

ever, point out that California,

the largest prize in the entire

nominating contest, went for

him on March 3 and results

are still being tallied, meaning

the senator will likely gain

more delegates from that pri-

mary. Colorado, another state

Mr. Sanders won, is also still

tabulating results.

Mr. Sanders has said he

would support Mr. Biden if the

former vice president is the

Democratic nominee.

—Alexa Corse

contributed to this article.

BURLINGTON, Vt.—Sen.
Bernie Sanders’s hopes of se-
curing the Democratic presi-
dential nomination rely on an
unlikely path that would re-
quire him to top or tie Joe Bi-
den in states he lost in his
2016 bid, a tough proposition
as his momentum wanes.
Mr. Sanders indicated
Wednesday that he plans to
stay in the race and partici-
pate in Sunday’s Democratic
debate in Phoenix, despite los-
ing four of the six states that
held nominating contests
Tuesday.
“I very much look forward
to the debate in Arizona with
my friend Joe Biden,” Mr.
Sanders said. “Donald Trump
must be defeated....On Sunday
night, in the first one-on-one
debate of this campaign, the

BYELIZACOLLINS

Vermont Senator Faces Long Odds of Securing Nomination

Bernie Sanders’s

loss in Michigan was

a particularly hard-

hitting blow.

suburbanites and older voters.

It was a further sign of Mr. Bi-

den’s surge in a matter of

weeks from a candidate who

appeared headed for a third

failed presidential bid to the

delegate leader and front-run-

ner. The wins also prompted

calls from inside the party to

unite around his candidacy and

direct its full attention to de-

feating Mr. Trump, a Republi-

can.

“Last night, Joe Biden ex-

panded his coalition and con-

tinues to demonstrate he is the

candidate who can unite the

Democratic Party,” T.J. Ducklo,

a Biden campaign spokesman,

said Wednesday.

The former vice president’s

turnaround has reordered the

contest for the Democratic

nomination over the past few

weeks and put pressure on Mr.

Sanders to prove he has a via-

ble path forward.

On Wednesday morning, Mr.

Sanders was declared the win-

ner in North Dakota, while the

candidates were locked in a

tight race in Washington state.

Tad Devine, the chief strate-

gist of Mr. Sanders’s 2016 cam-

paign who most recently

helped the presidential cam-

paign of Andrew Yang, said in

an interview he didn’t see “a

realistic pathway to the nomi-

nation” for Mr. Sanders.

“The question he has to

confront this time, which was

not on the play last time, is:

Are you going to enable an-

other four years of Donald

Trump by participating in this

process longer? And are you

Sen. Bernie Sanders, facing
a shrinking path to the Demo-
cratic presidential nomination,
made a case for continuing in
the 2020 race as front-running
rival Joe Biden sought to unite
the party behind his candidacy.
Mr. Sanders said on
Wednesday he intended to par-
ticipate in a scheduled debate
Sunday in Phoenix, where he
said he would press the former
vice president to move in a
more liberal policy direction
on issues such as health care
and college affordability. The
senator from Vermont also of-
fered a frank assessment of his
chances a day after Mr. Biden
strengthened his bid for the
nomination with victories in
Tuesday’s contests, most nota-
bly a blowout in Michigan.
The previous evening “was
not a good night for our cam-
paign,” Mr. Sanders said in
Burlington, Vt. He said his
campaign often hears on the
trail that voters see Mr. Biden
as a better bet against Presi-
dent Trump in November, even
as some of Mr. Sanders’s pro-
gressive policy ideas are popu-
lar among Democrats.
“While our campaign has
won the ideological debate, we
are losing the debate over
electability,” Mr. Sanders said.
Mr. Biden won in Michigan
by 17 percentage points over
Mr. Sanders, and he also
scored victories in Missouri,
Mississippi and Idaho with a
coalition of African-Americans,

BYCHADDAY
ANDKENTHOMAS

Sanders Stays

In Race, Biden

Urges Unity

going to handicap Biden’s abil-

ity to defeat Trump? That’s a

very big issue,” said Mr. De-

vine, who noted he hadn’t spo-

ken to the senator since the

last presidential bid.

Mr. Biden addressed the

senator’s supporters Tuesday

evening as he sought to posi-

tion himself as the candidate

the party could rally around.

“I want to thank Bernie

Sanders and his supporters for

their tireless energy and their

passion,” Mr. Biden said in

Philadelphia. “We share a com-

mon goal and together, we’ll

defeat Donald Trump. We’ll de-

feat him together.”

Encouraged by Tuesday’s

results, Mr. Biden’s allies began

making plans for a monthslong

battle against Mr. Trump.

Unite the Country, a pro-Bi-

den super PAC, said in a memo

to supporters that “the func-

tional primary phase of this

election is over.”

The group said it had raised

nearly $10 million, “with triple

that in commitments,” during

the past 10 days.

Mr. Biden’s strong perfor-

mance, after winning 10 states a

week ago on Super Tuesday,

also spurred two deep-pocketed

liberal groups to get behind him

and say the general-election

campaign against Mr. Trump

was starting. Priorities USA and

American Bridge had remained

neutral throughout the primary.

With those groups lining up

behind Mr. Biden, Sunday’s de-

bate took on more importance

as it will be the first time the

two men will go head-to-head.

Rep. Tim Ryan (D., Ohio), a

Biden supporter, said on CNN

that he would welcome a de-

bate of ideas this weekend but

cautioned that Mr. Sanders

shouldn’t use the opportunity

to tear down Mr. Biden.

“I think at this point, trash-

ing each other is not in the

best interest of, not just the

Democratic Party, but bringing

some unity to this country,” he

said.

Biden deputy campaign

manager Kate Bedingfield said

Wednesday on CNN that the

campaign wouldn’t tell Mr.

Sanders what to do. Instead,

she made an appeal to his sup-

porters and young voters.

“I think there is a tremen-

dous amount that we agree on,

and I would say to Bernie

Sanders supporters that if

they’re looking for a home,

they’ve got one with Joe Bi-

den,” Ms. Bedingfield said.

Mr. Biden’s edge over Mr.

Sanders in convention dele-

gates was 861 to 710 Wednes-

day afternoon, according to a

Wall Street Journal tracker.

The Biden campaign suggested

in a memo Wednesday night

that it may have a lead of more

than 300 delegates over Mr.

Sanders after next week’s pri-

maries in four states.

“Should our broad base of

support remain...it will be

nearly impossible for Sanders

to recoup his current delegate

disadvantage,” the campaign

said. The Sanders campaign

didn’t respond to the memo.

The campaigns have com-

peted for votes against the

backdrop of growing concerns

over the spread of the corona-

virus. Both candidates have

questioned Mr. Trump’s han-

dling of the crisis, and on

Tuesday they each canceled

rallies in Cleveland.

—Sabrina Siddiqui

and Eliza Collins

contributed to this article.

BRENDAN MCDERMID/REUTERS

Joe Biden’s allies began making plans for a monthslong battle against President Trump. Mr. Biden and his wife, Jill, in Philadelphia Wednesday.

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