The_Times__6_March_2020

the times | Friday March 6 2020 2GM 9

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9 per cent for those over 80, Professor
Whitty said that this meant the odds of
survival were still strong. “I think it’s
easy to get a perception that if you are
older and you get this virus then you’re
a goner — absolutely not, the great
majority of people will recover from
this virus, even if they are in their 80s,”
he told MPs on the health committee.
The government is not yet advising
elderly and vulnerable people to self-
isolate to avoid the virus but is develop-
ing advice on how to do so during any
peak once, as expected, Covid-19 reach-
es an epidemic stage.
“The difficulty is we need to make
sure we do that without isolating them
from society, exacerbating loneliness,

looks likely to be challenging for our

older population so it is more important

than ever to be vigilant and look out for

older friends, neighbours and relatives

to make sure they’re okay.”

Boris Johnson was asked about how

to prepare older people for the virus on

ITV’s This Morning yesterday. Phillip

Schofield, the presenter, said to the

prime minister: “I need to know, at what

point do I tell my mum, ‘Actually it

might be a good idea to stay in now’.”

Mr Johnson replied: “We want to

communicate, over-communicate,

with the public about what is happen-

ing. It is always worth stressing with

this that for the overwhelming majority

of people this is going to be a mild to

moderate illness. We are still at the

stage where the single best thing we can

do, and it will be like that for a long time,

is just wash our hands.”

Asked if he was worried about his

father, Stanley, who is 79, Mr Johnson

said: “I’m sure he’s prepared, he’s genu-

inely in a state of readiness for any-

thing.”

Cruise lines are introducing “en-

hanced screening measures”, including

temperature checks, for passengers in

an attempt to stop cancellations and a

slump in bookings. Travel agents have

said that it has become almost impossi-

ble to sell cruises because people fear

falling ill on ships that have been de-

scribed as “floating petri dishes”.

Keep clean and

carry on... for now

Chris Smyth Whitehall Editor

Katie Gibbons, Kat Lay

Face masks and gloves

Like face masks, gloves are not effective

at keeping out the virus. Lindsay Broad-

bent, a virologist at Queen’s University

Belfast, said: “If you’re touching un-

clean surfaces with gloves and then

touching your face you might as well

not wear them at all.”

Working from home and other “social

distancing” measures

The “delay” stage of the response is

likely to involve asking people to start

keeping their distance. This could in-

clude stopping shaking hands, going to

pubs and restaurants less and working

from home. First-aiders have already

been told not to provide mouth-to-

mouth resuscitation.

Video calls for NHS appointments,

courts and funerals

As an outbreak takes hold, advice is

likely to suggest doing as much re-

motely as possible. This is already been

talked about for NHS care and court

videolinks, and funeral directors have

talked about livestreaming ceremonies.

Mass events

Decisions will have to be taken on can-

celling festivals and other large gather-

ings. Professor Whitty has urged a

“public debate” about how much dis-

ruption we are willing to take.

School closures

Schools will close only if the outbreak is

heading to a worst-case scenario. Pro-

fessor Whitty believes children, who

are relatively unscathed by the virus,

will find other ways to meet up.

Mitigating the effect on the NHS

Non-urgent operations will be can-

celled. Retired doctors and medical stu-

dents will be asked to help out.

The nation is poised on the border

between containing the virus and de-

laying its spread. At the moment the ad-

vice has not changed but officials are

accelerating work on the next phase of

measures as Chris Whitty, the chief

medical officer for England, said that

the country was moving into a “mainly

delay” response.

The transmission of the virus

The key change is that 11 cases have

now been detected by routine testing of

patients with respiratory problems but

no recent travel history. The NHS

started checking intensive care patients

this week and to have found cases

already is a strong hint that the virus is

being passed on undetected.

Four stages of the government’s plan

Up until now, the key goal has been to

“contain” by spotting cases coming in

from abroad, isolate them and anyone

who shows symptoms. That will con-

tinue but plans are under way to step up

measures to “delay” the spread of the

virus. The other strands are to “re-

search” how it spreads and “mitigate”

the impact of the outbreak.

Washing hands

The key delaying tactic is better hy-

giene. Droplets containing coronavirus

can linger on surfaces for up to 72 hours,

Professor Whitty said yesterday. This

means that people can pick up the virus

from bus and train rails, door handles

and other surfaces. But this is only a

problem if your hand then touches your

face before it is washed. Wash hands

with soap and warm water for at least

20 seconds but don’t use a bar of soap in

a public bathroom.

providing barriers to social interactions

and practical things like shopping and

people coming in to help them,” Profes-

sor Whitty said.

Care companies are seeking advice

on how to manage home visits if elderly

and vulnerable people are asked to iso-

late themselves, fearing that if care

workers got sick or had to quarantine

themselves that would put further pres-

sure on a social care system already

under strain. People with dementia and

adults with learning disabilities may al-

so struggle to comply with self-isola-

tion advice.

About 550,000 in the UK rely on

home care funded by councils and at

least another 100,000 pay for it them-

selves. Colin Angel, policy manager at

the UK Homecare Association, said: “A

significant proportion of people, partic-

ularly those who receive state-funded

care, have dementia. We are talking

about delivering a service which by its

nature has quite a lot of intimate per-

sonal care — it is something you have to

do close up a lot of the time.”

Operators of care homes, which have

about 400,000 residents, have also

raised concerns that hand sanitisers

and personal protective equipment are

being prioritised for the NHS and have

said they must be treated equally.

Caroline Abrahams, charity director

at Age UK, said: “The coronavirus out-

break is obviously a huge worry and

DAVID MCHUGH/BRIGHTON PICTURES; RICK FINDLER/STORY PICTURE AGENCY; ALEX LENTATI/LNP

Peak ‘likely in two months’

Continued from page 1

that patients with mild symptoms were

now being told to stay in their

bedrooms. “Where people have very

minimal symptoms and we think they

are clinically safe and they are able to

self-isolate, we think this is actually

safer for them as well as more pleasant,”

Professor Whitty said.

The first patient to die in this country

had been “in and out of hospital for

non-coronavirus reasons”, the NHS

said. An additional 18 patients have re-

covered. Susan Hopkins, of Public

Health England, said that testing of all

suspected cases would soon stop to pri-

oritise the elderly and those who

needed to be in hospital, in order to stop

outbreaks on wards. Professor Whitty

said that Britain was moving towards

telling anyone who had coronavirus

symptoms to self-isolate. “If we were to

get a significant epidemic our advice

will definitely be stay at home,” he said.

Speaking to MPs on the health and

social care select committee, Professor

Whitty said that the peak of an out-

break was expected in about two

months, with 50 per cent of cases over

a three-week period and 95 per cent

over a nine-week period. “This could be

anywhere from a rather bad winter for

the NHS — but in spring or summer —

through to huge numbers way overtop-

ping the ability of the NHS realistically

to put everyone in beds.” Some retired

doctors could be called back into roles

that would see them not dealing with

patients face to face, he said, such as

helping to answer NHS 111 phone calls.

Ed Conway, page 26

Iain Martin, page 27

Letters, page 28

Markets back in red, page 37

medical officer showy. He was not
some square-jawed George
Clooney, not one for the dramatic
visual aid or the politician’s
soundbite. Balding, clean-shaven,
his pale eyebrows the colour of
crumble topping, he exuded open-
faced uncomplication. The sort of
doc you would want for your
prostate check. Only twice did he
succumb to jargon, once when he
spoke of “a large iceberg of
people”, later when he mentioned
“a dashboard” of warnings.
Generally he abjured the
simpering euphemisms and
patronising uplift often favoured
by public health officials.
He was faultlessly polite to the
politicians yet there was a drollery
there, too. He was asked if
parliamentarians were likely to be
disease “super-spreaders” because
they spent weekends in
constituencies and then mixed in
Westminster during the week.
Pause. Then he said he was sure
they were more likely to be
spreaders of “wisdom and great
acumen”. That earned him a laugh.

Profile

T

he chief

medical

officer for

England

seems to be

relishing the

challenge of

responding to the

coronavirus outbreak

(Kat Lay writes).

Colleagues speak of

Chris Whitty as a

hard worker who

regularly puts in 16-

hour days, and is

highly intelligent,

even by the standards

of top-flight medical

researchers. He has

gained a diploma in

economics, a law

degree and an MBA

in his spare time.

David Mabey,

professor of

communicable

diseases at the

London School of

Hygiene & Tropical

Medicine, who has

held a clinic with

Professor Whitty for

more than ten years,

told The Guardian:

“He’s an absolutely

extraordinary,

brilliant man. He’s

exactly the man we

need.” Professor

Whitty is both a

doctor and an

epidemiologist,

meaning an expert in

the pattern of

diseases.

He was born in

April 1966 in

Gloucester. His father

worked for the British

Council and he spent

much of his childhood

in northern Nigeria.

Educated at Oxford,

he has held roles as

chief scientific adviser

at the Department for

International

Development and the

Department of Health

and Social Care. He is

no stranger to high-

profile and high-

pressure events,

having advised the

government on the

Salisbury novichok

poisonings.

His father was shot

dead in Athens in

1984, in an apparent

case of mistaken

identity, leaving four

sons, of whom

Professor Whitty is

the youngest. An

article in The Times

the following week

said that Britain had

been robbed of a man

“of immense potential

leadership”.

His son’s potential

appears more likely to

be realised.