“We’re not really in a competition against each
other. We’re in a race against a pandemic virus,
and we really need as many players in that race
as possible,” Dr. Andrew Pollard, who is leading
the University of Oxford’s vaccine study, told
the press.
The hard truth: There’s no way to predict which
— if any — vaccine will work safely, or even to
name a front-runner.
As Dr. Anthony Fauci, the U.S. government’s
top expert, put it: “You need more shots on
goal for a chance at getting a safe and
effective vaccine.”
The first cautious tests of March, when
small numbers of volunteers got injections
to check for side effects, have turned into larger
studies in China, the U.S. and Europe to look
for hints that different vaccine candidates
really protect.
Next: Finding out for sure if any of the vaccines
work in the real world by testing large groups
of people in areas where the virus is circulating
— a tricky prospect when study participants
may be in places where the virus is fading or
they are told to stay home — and finding a
way to quickly distribute lots of doses of any
successful candidates.
Policymakers are devising plans to try to
overcome both obstacles in an attempt to
compress the years it usually takes to develop
a vaccine. Asked if a vaccine by January was
possible, Dr. Deborah Birx, the White House
coronavirus task force coordinator, told Fox
News Sunday “on paper, it’s possible. It’s
whether we can execute,” she said.