The New York Times - USA (2020-06-25)

Jamaal Bowman is leading Representative Eliot L.

Engel in parts of the Bronx and Westchester County.

DESIREE RIOS FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES

Ritchie Torres, a city councilman, is in the lead for

Representative José E. Serrano’s seat in the Bronx.

GABRIELA BHASKAR FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES

Mondaire Jones is ahead of six rivals vying for Repre-

sentative Nita Lowey’s seat in the Hudson Valley.

AL J. THOMPSON FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES

A18 N THE NEW YORK TIMES NATIONALTHURSDAY, JUNE 25, 2020

Candidates from the Democrat-

ic Party’s left wing held significant

leads in three marquee House pri-

maries in New York after Tues-

day’s machine ballot count, in a

profound show of progressive po-

litical power.

One of the contests could lead to

the unseating of an entrenched

leader: Representative Eliot L.

Engel, chairman of the House For-

eign Affairs Committee, was

badly trailing Jamaal Bowman, an

insurgent candidate from Yon-

kers.

If Mr. Engel, who has served in

Congress for more than 30 years,

were to lose, it would echo a simi-

lar upset in 2018, when Alexandria

Ocasio-Cortez defeated Joseph

Crowley, then the No. 4 House

Democrat.

But this year, the movement

seemed to have more reach, as

progressive Democrats led the

way in contests for two open

House seats held by retiring Dem-

ocrats.

In the Bronx, Ritchie Torres, a

city councilman, led a pack of con-

tenders in the 15th Congressional

District, where Representative

José E. Serrano is retiring. Those

trailing Mr. Torres included a po-

litical veteran, Rubén Díaz Sr., a

conservative former state senator

with a history of anti-gay re-

marks, who had been considered

among the favorites.

And in the Hudson Valley dis-

trict held by Representative Nita

Lowey, who is also retiring,

Mondaire Jones, a Harvard-edu-

cated lawyer, had pulled away

from six other candidates in early

returns.

Mr. Jones and Mr. Torres would

become trailblazers if elected in

November: Either would be the

first openly gay black member of

Congress.

All of Tuesday’s results came

with a sizable caveat: State offi-

cials had issued nearly two million

absentee ballots to voters state-

wide because of the coronavirus

outbreak, and those votes —

which could be postmarked as late

as Primary Day — would not be

fully counted for at least a week.

That means close races may

stay in limbo till July. One such

contest involves another veteran

Democratic incumbent, Repre-

sentative Carolyn Maloney, who

had a slight lead over Suraj Patel,

who ran against her in 2018.

Still, early returns seemed to

confirm that the liberal wave that

elected Ms. Ocasio-Cortez to Con-

gress in 2018 has continued to

build momentum.

Ms. Ocasio-Cortez had faced a

primary challenge herself but

swept it aside easily, even as like-

minded candidates — embracing

her call for a Green New Deal and

Medicaid for All, among other

policies — showed electoral mus-

cle.

That strength was perhaps

most evident in the 16th Congres-

sional District, which includes

parts of the Bronx and Westches-

ter County, and where Mr. Bow-

man had a hefty lead over Mr.

Engel, who was first elected there

in 1988.

The race there had illustrated

the sharp schism in Democratic

ranks, with Mr. Bowman backed

by many of the Democrats’ most

outspoken progressives and Mr.

Engel, fighting for his political life,

seeking rescue from more centrist

party leaders like the House

speaker, Nancy Pelosi, the former

presidential candidate Hillary

Clinton and Gov. Andrew M.

Cuomo.

Mr. Bowman, a middle-school

principal, declared victory on

Wednesday morning, though The

Associated Press had yet to call

the race.

In a speech to supporters on

Tuesday night, he spoke out

against poverty, racism and sex-

ism, among other social ills, “a

system that’s literally killing us.”

He said, if elected, he would be a

“black man with power.”

“That is what Donald Trump is

afraid of,” said Mr. Bowman, add-

ing: “I cannot wait to get to Con-

gress and cause problems.”

In a statement, the Engel cam-

paign said “any declarative state-

ment on the outcome of this race

right now is premature,” and

called for every vote to be

counted.

Establishment Democrats

could take some solace in easy

wins for a number of incumbents,

including Representative Greg-

ory Meeks, the chairman of the

Queens Democratic Party. Repre-

sentative Jerrold Nadler, the

chairman of the powerful House

Judiciary Committee, held a com-

fortable lead over two challeng-

ers, and Representative Yvette

Clarke was also leading in her

race in Brooklyn, though — as

elsewhere — thousands of absen-

tee votes remained to be counted.

Indeed, the sheer number of ab-

sentee ballots could prove daunt-

ing to election officials, especially

considering the battles over vote

counts even before the coro-

navirus, like last year’s contested

election for district attorney in

Queens.

Martin Connor, an election law-

yer and former state senator, said

the pandemic would present

daunting logistical issues for the

New York City Board of Elections.

The board would need to ensure

social distancing during the

counting process, while allowing

campaigns to have representa-

tives — or watchers — present to

oversee the vote counts.

“It’s an extraordinary number

of absentee ballots,” he said. “And

we’ve never had this in the history

of this state.”

Though more than 700,000 vot-

ers in New York City were sent ab-

sentee ballots, not all of them are

expected to be returned. Many

voters might not have received

them in time, might have failed to

mail them in, or might have voted

in person instead.

So far, the city’s Board of Elec-

tions had received about 12 per-

cent of the absentee ballots that

were mailed out, according to pre-

liminary data.

Matt Rey, a partner at Red

Horse Strategies, a political con-

sulting firm that has been analyz-

ing the demographics of voters

who applied for absentee ballots,

said there was nothing in the data

to suggest Mr. Bowman, Mr. Jones

and Mr. Torres were at risk of los-

ing their leads.

“The breadth of their victories

is the real highlight for me here,”

said Mr. Rey, whose firm worked

with a candidate, Assemblyman

David Buchwald, who ran against

Mr. Jones in the 17th District.

“They’re rightly confident to de-

clare victory.”

Mr. Rey noted an overwhelming

number of voters who requested

absentee ballots in competitive

districts were under age 40, a

demographic that could give chal-

lengers an edge.

The progressive surge in con-

gressional races also played out in

many down-ballot legislative

races, especially in State Assem-

bly races in Queens, where sev-

eral incumbents appeared endan-

gered.

In Jackson Heights, Jessica

González-Rojas, a Latina commu-

nity organizer who drew many

parallels to Ms. Ocasio-Cortez,

was leading a crowded race to de-

feat Assemblyman Michael Den-

Dekker, a six-term Democrat. In

Astoria, Zohran Mamdani, a dem-

ocratic socialist, was beating Ar-

avella Simotas, an assemblywom-

an from Astoria since 2011.

In Westchester County, two as-

semblymen, Steven Otis and

Thomas J. Abinanti, were also

trailing their opponents.

The big night for progressives

was hailed by liberal groups like

the Working Families Party and

political action committees like

Justice Democrats, which had

jointly spent more than $1 million

on Mr. Bowman’s behalf. On

Wednesday, the two groups were

declaring victory, and sending

warning signals, to more main-

stream Democrats, including the

party’s presumptive presidential

nominee, Joseph R. Biden Jr.

“The future of the Democratic

Party looks a lot more like A.O.C.

and Jamaal than Joe Biden,” said

Waleed Shahid, the communica-

tions director for the Justice Dem-

ocrats. “Biden knows that if he en-

ters the White House in 2021, he

won’t be governing with the same

Congress from 2009.”

Like Mr. Bowman and Mr. Tor-

res, Mr. Jones had campaigned on

civil rights and criminal justice is-

sues, seizing on the energy inside

the Black Lives Matters move-

ment after the police killing of

George Floyd in Minneapolis on

May 25.

As of Wednesday afternoon, Mr.

Jones, a lawyer supported by the

institutional left and many na-

tional progressive leaders, had

garnered more than twice the

votes of his nearest rival, Adam

Schleifer, a former federal pros-

ecutor and the son of a pharma-

ceutical billionaire who had out-

spent Mr. Jones by more than five

to one. Mr. Jones, however, bene-

fited from some independent ex-

penditures on his behalf, including

by the Congressional Progressive

Caucus.

If he wins the Democratic nomi-

nation and the general election in

November, Mr. Jones would fill the

seat held by Ms. Lowey, 82, who

announced her impending retire-

ment in October in the face of a

possible primary challenge from

Mr. Jones. A first-time candidate

and an avowed science-fiction fan,

Mr. Jones likened the race to “a

story out of a sci-fi novel,” he said.

Which sci-fi novel, he was

asked?

“One that is still being written,”

he said.

Insurgent Wave Upends House Primaries in New York

Representative

José E. Serrano,

a three-decade incumbent

Representative

Nita Lowey,

a three-decade incumbent

Representative

Eliot L. Engel,

a three-decade incumbent

Three progressive Democrats with big leads

are mirroring Ocasio-Cortez’s rise in 2018.

This article is by Jesse McKinley,

Luis Ferré-Sadurníand Dana Ru-

binstein.

Chris Jacobs, a Republican
state senator, won a special
House election on Tuesday in
Western New York, maintaining
his party’s hold on a seat last oc-
cupied by Chris Collins, who re-
signed just before pleading guilty
to federal insider trading
charges.
Mr. Jacobs, 53, had banked his
campaign on the popularity of
President Trump, who endorsed
him; Mr. Trump’s son, Donald
Trump Jr., had also recorded a
robocall for Mr. Jacobs, the for-
mer Erie County clerk.
That proved more than enough
to dispatch Nate McMurray, the
Democratic candidate, who was
waging his second battle for the
27th Congressional District. Mr.
McMurray, a lawyer and former
Fulbright scholar, had narrowly
lost in 2018 against Mr. Collins, an
early endorser of Mr. Trump. The
Associated Press called the race
at 12:39 a.m. on Wednesday.
Mr. McMurray had been con-
sidered a long shot in the district,
a largely rural and suburban col-
lection of towns between Buffalo
and Rochester where Mr. Trump
won easily in 2016, and where
there are 40,000 more Republican
voters than Democrats.
Mr. Jacobs won despite misgiv-
ings among some Republicans
that he was too moderate for the
district. Since winning the Re-
publican nomination in January,
Mr. Jacobs had cast himself as a
close adherent to the president’s
policies, promising secure bor-
ders, strong Second Amendment
protections and an end to sanctu-
ary cities.
Mr. McMurray, 45, had minimal
help from establishment Demo-
crats: The Democratic Congres-
sional Campaign Committee had
little involvement in Mr. McMur-
ray’s bid until late in the cam-
paign, paying for a mailing and a
digital ad.
Nor did any of the state’s A-list
Democrats spend any political
capital on the race, including Gov.
Andrew M. Cuomo, a third-term
Democrat, who did not endorse
Mr. McMurray. The Cook Political
Report listed the 27th District as
“solid Republican.”
Like political cycles nation-
wide, the campaign had been up-
ended by the coronavirus out-
break, which has killed nearly
1,000 people in the eight counties
that make up parts of the district.
In late March, Mr. Cuomo moved
the election to June 23 from April
28, lengthening the campaign by
two months.
A scion of a prominent Buffalo
family, Mr. Jacobs had raised
more than $1 million and lent his
own campaign almost $450,000.
As winner of the special elec-
tion, Mr. Jacobs will serve for the
remainder of Mr. Collins’s term,
which ends this year, though Mr.
McMurray, a former town super-
visor in Grand Island, N.Y., north-
west of Buffalo, has vowed to
fight on: In November, when the
seat is contested again for a full
two-year term, Mr. McMurray
will have the Democratic ballot
line.
In an electoral oddity, Mr. Ja-
cobs, a second-term state senator,
also faced a primary challenge on
Tuesday from two Republicans,
Beth Parlato and Stefan Mycha-
jliw Jr.; Mr. Jacobs also won that
primary, assuring him a spot on
the Republican line.

Republican

Prevails,

Keeping Seat

Held by Collins

By JESSE McKINLEY

Election

the Republican Party has been es-
pecially pronounced among
younger voters, an ominous
trend for a party that was already
heavily reliant on older Ameri-
cans.
Fifty-two percent of whites un-
der 45 said they supported Mr. Bi-
den while only 30 percent said
they supported Mr. Trump. And
their opposition is intense: More
than twice as many younger
whites viewed the president very
unfavorably than very favorably.
Tom Diamond, 31, a Republican
in Fort Worth, Texas, said he
planned to vote for Mr. Trump but
would do so with real misgivings.
He called the president a “poor
leader” who had mishandled the

pandemic and said Mr. Biden

seemed “like a guy you can trust.”

But Mr. Trump held views closer

to his own on the economy, health

care and abortion.

“Part of you just feels icky vot-

ing for him,” Mr. Diamond said.

“But definitely from a policy per-

spective, that’s where my vote’s

going to go.”

Some unease toward Mr.

Trump stems from voters’ racial

attitudes. According to the poll,

white voters under 45 are over-

whelmingly supportive of the

Black Lives Matter movement,

while older whites are more tepid

in their views toward racial jus-

tice activism. And nearly 70 per-

cent of whites under 45 said they

believed the killing of George

Floyd was part of a broader pat-

tern of excessive police violence

toward African-Americans

rather than an isolated incident.

What’s striking, though, is that

even among white seniors, one of

Mr. Trump’s strongest constitu-

encies, he has damaged himself

with his conduct. About two-fifths

of whites over 65 said they disap-

proved of Mr. Trump’s handling of

both the coronavirus and race re-

lations.

Mr. Trump retains a few points

of strength in the poll that could

offer him a way to regain a footing

in the race, and the feeble condi-

tion of his candidacy right now

may well represent his low point

in a campaign with four and a half

months still to go. In 2016, Mr.

Trump often trailed Mrs. Clinton

in national polls by slimmer mar-

gins, and ultimately overcame

her lead in the popular vote with

razor-thin victories in key swing

states.

His approval rating is still nar-

rowly positive on the issue of the

economy, with 50 percent of vot-

ers giving him favorable marks

compared with 45 percent saying

the opposite. Should the fall cam-

paign become a referendum on

which candidate is better

equipped to restore prosperity af-

ter the pandemic has subsided,

that could give Mr. Trump a new

opening to press his case.

The president is also still ahead

of Mr. Biden among white voters

without college degrees, who

hold disproportionate influence

in presidential elections because

of how central the Midwest is to

capturing 270 electoral votes.

Yet if Mr. Trump still has a sig-

nificant measure of credibility

with voters on the economy, he

lacks any apparent political

strength on the most urgent is-

sues of the moment: the pan-

demic and the national reckoning

on policing and race.

Nearly three-fifths of voters

disapprove of Mr. Trump’s han-

dling of the coronavirus pan-

demic, including majorities of

white voters and men. Self-de-

scribed moderate voters disap-

proved of Mr. Trump on the coro-

navirus by a margin of more than

two to one.

Most of the country is also re-

jecting Mr. Trump’s call to reopen

the economy as quickly as possi-

ble, even at the cost of exposing

people to greater health risks. By

a 21-point margin, voters said the

federal government should pri-

oritize containing the coro-

navirus, even if it hurts the econ-

omy, a view that aligns them with

Mr. Biden.

Just a third of voters said the

government should focus on re-

starting the economy even if that

entails greater public-health

risks.

That debate could become the

central focus of the campaign in

the coming weeks, as coronavirus

outbreaks grow rapidly in a num-

ber of Republican-led states that

have resisted the strict lockdown

measures imposed in the spring

by Democratic states like New

York and California.

The public also does not share

Mr. Trump’s resistance to mask

wearing. The president has de-

clined to don a mask in nearly all

public appearances, even as top

health officials in his administra-

tion have urged Americans to do

so as a precaution against spread-

ing the coronavirus. In the poll, 54

percent of people said they al-

ways wear a mask when they ex-

pect to be in proximity to other

people, while another 22 percent

said they usually wear a mask.

Just 22 percent said they rarely

or never wear a mask.

Mr. Trump’s job approval on

race relations was just as dismal.

Sixty-one percent of voters said

they disapproved of Mr. Trump’s

handling of race, versus 33 per-

cent who said they approved. By

a similar margin, voters said they

disapproved of his response to

the protests after the death of Mr.

Floyd.

Mr. Trump has sought several

times in the last month to use

demonstrations against the po-

lice as a political wedge issue,

forcing Democrats to align them-

selves squarely either with law-

enforcement agencies or with the

most strident anti-police demon-

strators.

The poll suggested most voters

were rejecting that binary choice,

Poll Shows Biden With 14-Point Edge, as Pandemic and Protests Damage Trump

From Page A

Even voters who lean

Republican say they’re

considering a vote for

the Democrat.

The Upshot provides news,
analysis and graphics about
politics, policy and everyday life.

nytimes.com/upshot