A top New Mexico state health officials says the
forecast from Los Alamos is being combined
with details about local populations and
public health into a unique state model for
New Mexico, where an aggressive outbreak
in the northeastern corner of the state has
disproportionately affected the Navajo
Nation and at least two Native American
pueblo communities.
Amid aggressive social distancing and stay-
at-home orders, the virus is at a near-standstill
in counties such as Santa Fe, a hub for state
government, and Los Alamos itself, where the
nation’s first atomic bombs were designed.
For every infection confirmed by current testing
methods, New Mexico state and private health
officials assume about five people are infected,
said David Scrase, secretary of the state Human
Services Department.
“Los Alamos National Laboratory and our
model are really converging closely when it
comes to timing of the peak,” said Scrase, also a
practicing gerontologist.
It is unclear how many states and local
jurisdictions are watching the Los Alamos model,
though they include Nevada’s second largest
county as it safeguards the Lake Tahoe shoreline,
the city of Reno and an extensive rural area.
The model offers straightforward probabilities
— the worst, best and most likely forecasts for
infections and deaths.
The team behind the Los Alamos model
coalesced in 2011 with funding for infectious
disease modeling from the National Institutes of
Health, growing as doctorate students worked
on projects and then joined the staff.