◼ POLITICS Bloomberg Businessweek June 29, 2020
35
50%4540
3/7 6/13▼Presidential voting
intention
Biden
Trumpdoingtheonethingpresidentsinbothparties
havealwaysdonewhenseekinga secondterm:
makinga concertedplayforundecidedvotersin
themiddle.
“Oneofthegreatmythsofthe 2004 campaign
wasthatPresidentBushjustappealedtohisconser-
vativebase,”saysSaraFagen,formerWhiteHouse
politicaldirectorandseniorstrategistonGeorge
W.Bush’sreelectioncampaign.“Thefactis,our
wholefocuswasonthewinningoverthemiddle.”
ForBush,runninginthewakeoftheSept. 11
terroristattacks,thatmeantemphasizingnational
securityandAmericansafety.“Weknewthateven
peoplewhodidn’tcompletelyagreewithhimor
lovehiseconomicpoliciesfeltmoresecurewith
himatthehelm,”Fagensays.“Itcameupinour
researchandfitthepresidentnaturally.”
BarackObama,whosereelectionracemore
closelyresemblesthecurrentone,hadtopersuade
voterstolookpasta tougheconomicclimateand
staythecoursedespitehighunemployment.“What
weweretryingtodowassella storyofwherewe
weregoing,”saysJimMessina,Obama’s 2012 cam-
paignmanager.“Wetalkedabouta jobsplan,we
talkedabouteconomicrecovery,becausewehad
topersuadevotersina tougheconomictimethat
thingsweregettingbetter,andweneverwavered
fromthattheme.”
Trumphasmostlyshunnedtheapproachhis
predecessors employed. He hadto abandon
hiscampaigntheme(“KeepAmericaGreat”)when
thecoronavirustooktheshineofftheeconomy,
andhehasn’tsettledona replacement.Herarely
toutshismainlegislativeachievement,the 2017
taxcut.Evenbeforethepandemicheshowedno
inclinationtoabandonthetacticsthatworkedso
wellforhimfouryearsago:blastsofsocialmedia
andsprawlingstadiumrallies.Wherea typicalpres-
identwouldrolloutbigjobsandinfrastructure
plansora nationalstrategytocombatCovid-19,
Trump has deferred to Congress and the states.
Instead he’s embraced an outsider persona,
quick to criticize other leaders for failing to halt the
pandemic and the unrest stemming from protests
against police brutality, while promising to bring
change. His vows to reestablish “law and order”
echo Richard Nixon’s winning message in 1968. But
Nixon’s message worked because he was the chal-
lenger, not the incumbent, and wasn’t responsible
for the disorder to which voters were responding.
“Part of it is that Trump has never fully
embraced the government,” says David Axelrod,
a top Obama White House official. “Even as we
speak, he’s openly defying the health recommen-
dations his own government is making. He’s at
oncetheleaderofthegovernmentdealingwith
thepandemic and also the leader of the response
that’s resisting it.”
As unusual as Trump’s style of campaigning
has been, Biden’s might be even more so. Some
days he’s so absent from the news that it’s hard to
believe he’s running at all. His scarcity owes partly
to the pandemic, of course. From practically the
moment he clinched the Democratic nomination,
Biden has been sequestered in the basement of his
Delaware home, limited to Zoom chats and phone
calls, only recently venturing out to a handful of
carefully distanced speaking engagements.
Unlike past White House hopefuls, however,
Biden shows little urgency to inject himself into the
daily news cycle—a luxury he’s permitted by dint of
his broad name recognition, lengthy public record,
and strong poll numbers. That’s rare among presi-
dential challengers. When Obama first ran in 2008,
Axelrod says, he could never have run a campaign
like the one Biden’s running because he needed to
introduce himself to voters and convince them he
could be president.
But Biden’s eight years as vice president made
him a familiar persona—and one who, at least so
far, doesn’t polarize voters nearly as much as the
last well-known Democratic nominee, Hillary
Clinton. Although he routinely attacks Trump in
interviews and TV ads, he’s just as apt to sound
the kind of broad ecumenical themes typical of
a sitting president, about the “duty to care for all
Americans,” promote racial healing, and lift up
“the great American middle class.” In a word cloud
of Biden descriptors, “empathy” looms larger than
any other, to the satisfaction of Biden’s strategists.
Styling himself an incumbent has been made
easier because Trump has shown only intermit-
tent interest in playing a president’s traditional
public role. When it comes to state dinners and
foreign trips full of pageantry, Trump inhabits
it fully; in periods of national crisis, though, he
tends to withdraw.
“To the extent that Biden’s intervened in the
national dialogue, he’s done so in ways that inject
him as decent, conciliatory, and presidential,”
Axelrod says, “and he’s assumed that role because
Trump has essentially surrendered it.”
And because he enjoys a wide lead in the polls,
Biden has embraced another luxury sometimes
available to incumbents, but almost never to chal-
lengers: ignoring the press. Biden hasn’t held a
newsconferencesinceApril2. Meanwhile,thepoll-
ingdisparityhasforcedTrump’scampaigntopush
foradditionaldebates,typicallyachallenger’s ploy
to gain momentum.