TheEconomistJune 27th 2020 171T
he carsdrove an hour out of Las Vegas
and lined up along the edge of the Yucca
Flat on April 22nd 1952. They pointed to-
wards the desert, as if it were a drive-in cin-
ema. Newsmen, among them Walter Cron-
kite, had gathered for a killer performance:
the first televised nuclear test, ten miles
away at the Nevada Test Site. “This is the
greatest show on Earth,” an army captain
assured soldiers in trenches, there to prac-
tise storming across an irradiated battle-
field, ahead of a similar test the next year.
“You won’t be hurt. Relax and enjoy it.”
Over four decades, America’s govern-
ment conducted 928 nuclear tests in Neva-
da. The mushroom clouds could be seen
from Las Vegas, where the chamber of com-
merce cannily issued tourist calendars
with dates, times and plum viewing spots.
On September 23rd 1992, the ground shook
for the last time. President George H.W.
Bush, following the Soviet Union’s exam-
ple the previous year, joined a moratorium
on nuclear-weapons testing that has been
extended by every president since. Yet
some fear that America’s 28-year nuclear
lull may be drawing to a close.
On June 23rd the State Department told
Congress that it suspected that Russia had
conducted “nuclear weapons-related ex-
periments that have created nuclear yield”,
in violation of the Comprehensive Test Ban
Treaty (ctbt). It also said that excavation
and other activity at China’s Lop Nur testsite “raise concerns regarding China’s ad-
herence to its testing moratorium”. All
three countries signed the ctbtin 1996, but
only Russia has ratified it. The treaty would
not enter into force until 44 designated
countries ratify it; of those, India, Pakistan
and North Korea have not even signed up.
Most experts say the accusations are
thin gruel. America itself does in Nevada
much of what it says China is doing at Lop
Nur. Moreover, all three countries conduct
“subcritical” tests, in which there is no crit-
ical mass of plutonium, no chain reaction
and therefore no yield. Under the ctbt,
these are kosher. Some, however, can be
outwardly indistinguishable from illicit
tests with tiny yields. In 1997 a Russian
“test” turned out to be an earthquake.
But the charges are ominous. In May, ac-
cording to the Washington Post, American
officials considered conducting a “rapid
test” to demonstrate the country’s nuclear
prowess, with the intention of forcing Rus-
sia and China into trilateral nuclear talks,
something that China has thus far resisted.
Detonating a nuke is relatively straight-
forward. American law requires the gov-
ernment to be able to conduct a nuclear test
within two to three years of a presidential
order. The problem is that it can be done
properly, or quickly, but not both. A “fully
instrumented” test, designed to capture
useful data, would take at least 18 months,Nuclear weapons
Viva Las Vegas?
A resumption of nuclear tests would shake up more than Nevada
United States
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