TheEconomistJune 27th 2020 231W
henever he appearson Venezuelan
state television, Nicolás Maduro is
introduced as “el presidente constitucional”,
the constitutional president. The an-
nouncer often reminds viewers that he is
“legitimate”, too. The reminder is needed
because Mr Maduro is a dictator. It shows,
too, the regime’s craving for legitimacy. Mr
Maduro’s belief in his right to rule comes in
part from the status he claims as the heir of
the late Hugo Chávez, the regime’s founder
(pictured, far left) and, less plausibly, Si-
món Bolívar, Venezuela’s liberator (centre).
He also wants the affirmation that comes
from a popular mandate, even though just
13% of Venezuelans back the regime, ac-
cording to Datanálisis, a polling firm. To
that end, he has sought to keep democra-
cy’s form even as he drains it of content.
With a legislative election due by De-
cember, this month the regime took two
big steps to ensure it will not lose. The cur-
rent National Assembly is the only arm of
the state controlled by the opposition. Its
president, Juan Guaidó, is recognised bynearly 60 countries as Venezuela’s interim
president (on the grounds that Mr Maduro
rigged his re-election in 2018). Mr Maduro
has in effect stripped the legislature of its
powers. Now he is manoeuvring to bring it
under direct control of the regime.
On June 12th the Supreme Court, an ap-
pendage of the regime, appointed new
members to the National Electoral Council
(cne), which oversees elections. The cne’s
reform has been a central demand of Mr
Guaidó and his foreign supporters. This
shake-up is not that reform. Three of the
five new members are allies of the regime,
like the last slate. The three are subject to
sanctions by the United States and Canada
for human-rights abuses or financialcrimes or both. The other newcomers are
members of the opposition who have bro-
ken with its leaders.
To guarantee victory in the parliament-
ary vote, though, more is needed. On June
15th the Supreme Court ruled that control
of one opposition party, Democratic Ac-
tion, should pass to Bernabé Gutiérrez,
who was previously expelled from that
party for “conspiring with the regime of Ni-
colás Maduro”. Mr Gutiérrez is the brother
of one of the cne’s new members. On the
next day the court suspended, then re-
placed, the directors of Justice First, whose
best known member is Henrique Capriles,
once a presidential candidate. The regime
has not yet targeted Mr Guaidó’s Popular
Will party. But the attorney-general pro-
poses branding it a terrorist organisation.
The regime is assaulting an opposition
in disarray. After 18 months of failed at-
tempts to unseat Mr Maduro, Mr Guaidó is
struggling to look relevant. He gave initial
backing to a hare-brained plot for Ameri-
can mercenaries to kidnap Mr Maduro,
which flopped in March. Mr Guaidó’s ap-
proval rating has dropped from 61% in Feb-
ruary 2019 to 26%. The covid-19 pandemic
has further constrained him. Mr Maduro
has locked down the country, thwarting
protests and reinforcing the impression
that his rival counts for little.
Mr Guaidó and his allies must now de-
cide how to react to fraud in the legislative
election. Some factions of the oppositionVenezuelaThe many machinations of
Nicolás Maduro
How a despised regime plans to win this year’s legislative electionThe Americas
24 Brazilianfootballkicksoff
24 Canada’swaningglobalinfluence
25 Bello: Lessons of the 1930s and 1980sAlso in this section