TheEconomistJune 27th 2020 331F
ar frombeing a show of strength, it
smacked of desperation. On June 22nd
thousands of Palestinians held a protest in
Jericho against a possible Israeli annex-
ation of parts of the occupied West Bank.
They were joined, unusually, by diplomats
from across the globe: Britain and Russia,
Jordan and Japan. The United Nations en-
voy, Nickolay Mladenov, made a speech.
After months of public warnings and quiet
pressure, the world’s collective diplomatic
clout perched on plastic chairs beneath the
beating summer sun.
On July 1st Israel’s cabinet can start to
discuss annexation. The date is less a dead-
line than a starting-point laid down in the
coalition agreement signed in April by Bin-
yamin Netanyahu, the prime minister, and
his governing partners. Israel could decide
to annex a large swathe of territory or an-
nex nothing at all, or—as seems likely—do
something betwixt the two.
If it does anything, it will happen over
widespread objections. Some of Mr Netan-
yahu’s partners are hesitant. The public, al-
though split on the wisdom of annexation,
mostly thinks it a distraction from the co-vid-19 pandemic and a likely recession.
Democrats in America oppose the move. So
do many European allies. Friendly Arab
states warn that it would threaten ties with
Israel. Even some Israeli settlers are op-
posed (albeit for different reasons). And
then there are the Palestinians themselves,
once again bystanders in their own drama.
It is quicker to list those in favour: some
of Mr Netanyahu’s right-wing allies, some
Israeli hawks, a few members of Donald
Trump’s administration. Yet this narrow
band of supporters have pushed annex-
ation from the fringe of Israeli politics into
the realm of possibility.
What Mr Netanyahu does matters less
than the fact that he might do it. The Oslo
Accords, signed in 1993, were to usher in ashort transitional period on the way to a
Palestinian state. Almost 30 years later the
world is scrambling not to clinch a two-
state solution but to preserve a status quo
that should have ended in 1999—the termi-
nus of a peace process that has become
more about process than peace.
Israel has already annexed East Jerusa-
lem and the Golan Heights, two other terri-
tories captured in 1967—but not the West
Bank, home to 3m Palestinians who see it
as the heart of their future state, and
430,000 Israeli settlers. (Another 230,000
settlers live in East Jerusalem.) The West
Bank’s status has long been regarded as a
question for a final peace agreement be-
tween Israel and the Palestinians.
Like his predecessors, Mr Trump took a
stab at drafting one. His “Peace to Prosper-
ity” plan, released in January, envisions a
Palestinian state—should the Palestinians
meet a list of onerous conditions—in Gaza
and on 70% of the West Bank (see map on
next page). It allows Israel to annex the re-
maining 30%, which consists of settle-
ments and the Jordan Valley.
The Palestinians rejected the plan. Mr
Netanyahu endorsed it and immediately
tried to annex the land earmarked for Isra-
el. But the Americans asked him to wait, in
part because Mr Netanyahu was at the time
fighting for his political survival. Three
elections in the span of a year had failed to
produce a government until he made a deal
with his exhausted rival, Benny Gantz.
As July 1st draws near, though, Mr Net-
anyahu’s plans remain fuzzy. Israel couldIsrael and the PalestiniansInto darkness
BEIRUT AND JERUSALEM
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