The Economist - USA (2020-06-27)

34 Middle East & Africa The EconomistJune 27th 2020

annex the full 30% or something smaller,

perhaps one or two settlement blocs (such

asMaale Adumim, pictured on the previ-

ous page). Another option is to annex scat-

tered settlements deep within the West

Bank to establish “facts on the ground”.

Some in Israel’s security establishment

think Mr Netanyahu will do less still: play

for time and form a committee to prepare

for annexation. On June 3rd security offi-

cials held a war game to plan for possible

violence on the Palestinian side. They were

in the dark about their own government’s

intentions. “Annexation? What annex-

ation?” asks an Israeli diplomat.

Like his nine predecessors since 1967,

Mr Netanyahu has made no serious moves

towards annexation beyond East Jerusa-

lem. It became an issue only on the eve of

the election in April last year, when he

promised to annex settlements close to the

pre-1967 border. Many saw this as a gim-

mick. Five months later, as another elec-

tion loomed, he unveiled a proposal to an-

nex the Jordan Valley. Then, five weeks

before the last vote, came the Trump plan.

Some who have spoken with Mr Netan-

yahu believe he wants to be the leader who

redrew Israel’s borders. Others still think

this a ploy to distract from his ongoing cor-

ruption trial and the pandemic. “He needs

annexation as a diversion so Israelis won’t

speak about the economy,” says Yair Lapid,

the opposition leader. “Instead he’s got

everyone running around like headless

chickens talking about annexation.”

He has met surprisingly fierce opposi-

tion from some settlers, for whom any

mention of a Palestinian state is anathema.

Mr Netanyahu has told them not to fret: the

Palestinians will never accept the Trump

plan. They are not convinced. “There isn’t a

partner on the Palestinian side now,” says

Yigal Dilmoni, head of the Yesha Council, a

settler lobby. “But who’s to say in the future

there won’t be such leadership? They will

be able to say that Israel already agreed to

them having a state on 70% of the land.”

Few have asked what the Palestinians

prefer. “It’s like they’re inviting people to a

wedding where the bride doesn’t show up,”

says Zahi Khouri, a businessman in Ramal-

lah. There is near-unanimous opposition

to annexation, of course, but also a sense of

resignation. Palestinians have watched Is-

raeli settlements expand for decades.

Hopes for a negotiated peace have faded;

their leadership seems powerless to do

anything. Over half of Palestinians in the

West Bank say they would back a return to

“armed struggle” if Israel annexes territory.

About two in five would like to dissolve

the Palestinian Authority (pa), their limit-

ed self-government, and force Israel to take

responsibility for the occupied territories.

Unpopular to start with, the parisks losing

its raison d’être: if Israel annexes a large

chunk of territory, the pacan no longer

claim to be the government of a state-in-

waiting. But the pa’s president, Mahmoud

Abbas, and the old men around him are

loth to take any drastic steps. Even their re-

cent decision to suspend security co-ordi-

nation with Israel was largely for show. It

has discreetly continued.

If the leadership is static, though, the

public is not. A growing share of Palestin-

ians have lost faith in the two-state sol-

ution. A poll from February put support at

just 39%, the lowest level in a generation.

Annexation won’t help. Amos Gilad, a re-

tired general who once led Israeli policy in

the territories, says it would cause the Pal-

estinians to “demand rights as citizens in

Israel”. Mr Netanyahu has heard similar

warnings from his security chiefs. But he

believes the Palestinians will capitulate

and accept a series of isolated statelets.

That is what Mr Trump offered. But his

administration is divided on whether to

back unilateral annexation. His ambassa-

dor in Jerusalem, David Friedman, used to

run a charity that raised millions of dollars

for settlements. He wants Israel to move

ahead now, in case his boss loses the elec-

tion in November. Jared Kushner, the presi-

dent’s son-in-law and the author of his

plan, is less enthusiastic. He has no ideo-

logical objections but worries annexation

will scupper his chance to play peacemak-

er. Mike Pompeo, the secretary of state,

says it is up to Israel.

Outside the administration, annex-

ation carries risks. Bipartisan support for

Israel in America has been ebbing for years:

Mr Netanyahu’s testy relations with Barack

Obama and embrace of Mr Trump hurt his

standing with Democrats. Annexation

would erode it further. Joe Biden, the

Democratic presidential nominee, op-

poses the move. For now, though, the party

has ruled out cutting America’s $4bn in an-

nual military aid to Israel. Warnings from

European leaders are also probably just

that. Still, none of this is good for Israel.

Egypt, one of two Arab states that has of-

ficial relations with Israel, has been con-

spicuously silent. It is busy with other cri-

ses, from covid-19 to the war in Libya.

Jordan has been louder. King Abdullah

worries annexation will trigger unrest

among his large Palestinian population

and revive talk of “the Jordan option”,

which imagines his country as the future

Palestinian state. But he has little leverage

over Israel; few expect he would go so far as

to rip up their peace treaty.

Mr Netanyahu has made much of Isra-

el’s growing ties with Gulf states. None offi-

cially recognises Israel. But their armies

and spy services swap intelligence and

there are discreet economic ties as well. On

June 12th Yousef al-Otaiba, the ambassador

of the United Arab Emirates (uae) in Wash-

ington, warned on the pages of an Israeli

newspaper that annexation would put all

this at risk. “We would like to believe Israel

is an opportunity, not an enemy,” he wrote.

“Israel’s decision on annexation will be an

unmistakable signal of whether it sees

things the same way.”

Annexation may limit the Gulf states’

friendship with Israel. But their common

interests, namely their antipathy towards

Iran and political Islam, will endure re-

gardless. Anwar Gargash, the uae’s minis-

ter of state for foreign affairs, has admitted

as much. “Can I have a political disagree-

ment with Israel but at the same time try

and bridge other areas of the relationship? I

think I can,” he said on June 16th.

Perhaps the most telling bit of Mr

Otaiba’s opinion piece was not its text but

its headline: “Annexation or Normalisa-

tion”. For decades Arab states said Israel

would enjoy friendly relations only if it

granted the Palestinians a state. The choice

was occupation or normalisation. But Mr

Otaiba made almost no mention of Pales-

tinian independence. In his framing, Israel

must only preserve the status quo. Some on

the Israeli right count that as a victory.

“They used to criticise us over the status

quo,” says Gideon Sa’ar, a lawmaker from

Mr Netanyahu’s Likud party. “Now they are

criticising us for changing the status quo.”

Still, there is little to celebrate. The

prospects of renewed talks between Israel

and the Palestinians are dim. Israel’s lead-

ers are too hawkish and nationalist, Pales-

tine’s too divided and illegitimate. Mr

Trump’s plan was dead on arrival. After

three decades of failure, the bar is low in-

deed: the world wants only to sustain a sit-

uation it has long called unsustainable. 7

Jerusalem

(municipalboundary)

WEST

BANK

GAZA

STRIP

ISRAEL

D e a d

S e a

Dead

Sea

Pre-1967border

“Greenline”

Jordan River

25 km

Maale

Adumim

East

Jerusalem

Ramallah

Jericho

Med.

Sea

Jo

rd

an

V

a

ll

e

y

Sources:PeaceNow;WhiteHouse

Joint (Area B) Israeli (Area C)

Areasofcontrol

Palestinian (Area A)

Israelisettlements Israelimunicipalareas

Separation barrier Built Planned

West Bank, June 2020

GAZA

STRIP

WEST

BANK

Jerusalem

Tunnel

ISRAEL

Trump’s

planfora

Palestinian

state

EGYPT JORDAN

2