36 Middle East & Africa The EconomistJune 27th 2020
21oftheunandtheFamineEarlyWarning
Systems Network, an American-funded
outfit that monitors some 30 countries.
Yet this time may be different, if early
intervention proves to be as effective as its
advocates believe. The un’s Food Security
and Nutrition Analysis Unit activated a
prepared plan when projections of the
share of the population threatened with
hunger crossed a preset threshold. Under
the plan, the un’s Office for the Co-ordina-
tion of Humanitarian Affairs (ocha) re-
leased $15m from an emergency fund—the
first such “triggered disbursement”. It
hopes that the World Bank may chip in as
much as $50m to the effort, to ensure that
stepping in early really makes a difference.
ocha will announce its priorities for ac-
tion next week, based on its own pre-pre-
pared menu of options.
That menu was drawn up on the as-
sumption that Somalia’s next crisis would
involve another drought, rather than a pan-
demic, locusts and flooding. Some of the
measures it envisages, such as the distribu-
tion of drought-tolerant seeds, are not rele-
vant to current circumstances. But many
others are. These range from handing out
cash to public-information campaigns and
providing food for people and livestock.
Humanitarian aid typically comes only
once a disaster is in full swing. Distressing
images of people in need prompt donors to
fund relief efforts, usually tied to specific
emergencies. But by then suffering is wide-
spread and relief is not cheap. It costs per-
haps 50 times as much to save a child who
is already suffering from malnutrition as it
does to intervene earlier, says Mark Low-
cock, ocha’s head. It is four times cheaper
to feed a goat than to replace one.
Mr Lowcock has been championing ear-
ly intervention in situations where data
can reliably warn of impending crises andwhere a speedy response can make a big
difference. In such cases, an anticipatory-
action plan can be prepared in advance, in-
volving a number of agencies as well as the
authorities on the ground. Moves and
money are ready to be triggered when con-
ditions deteriorate.
Interest in this approach has grown,
thanks to a few pilot projects and Mr Low-
cock’s lobbying. He has carved out about
$140m for anticipatory-action experi-
ments, starting with Somalia, over the next
18 months. A plan for responding pre-emp-
tively to flooding in Bangladesh is ready
and likely to be triggered at some point this
year (the flooding season starts in July). An-
other is in the works for Ethiopia, where
famine looms because of drought and co-
vid-19, though the trigger-points and the
likely impact of early intervention in such
a big country are still under discussion. A
pre-emptive plan for cholera may follow
next year: scientists think they can use data
to predict outbreaks in specific areas be-
fore a single case has occurred.
Whether anticipatory action works as
well as its advocates hope remains to be
seen. A report last month by the wfp sug-
gests that its effects on households are
“mainly positive”, but the evidence base is
slim and the authors stress the need for
more rigorous studies. The intervention in
Somalia is to be monitored and lessons will
be drawn from it with the help of the Centre
for Disaster Protection, a London-based
agency set up by the British government.
The initial $15m in funding for anticipa-
tory action may not be much. But it could
make a big difference to Somalis’ lives, and
to the future of ahead-of-the-curve inter-
vention. By proving that the concept
works, Mr Lowcock wants to “change the
whole mentality and mindset of dealing
with predictable emergencies”. 7If famine is predictable, it’s preventableA
nigerian passport, says Karo Agono,
a Nigerian businessman, raises all
sorts of “red flags”. For 15 years internation-
al deals made by his finance and property
business were held up when people saw his
green travel document and then asked for
stacks of extra paperwork. Fed up, Mr
Agono stumped up $150,000 for citizen-
ship of a Caribbean country.
More and more rich Africans are buying
second passports or foreign residency
rights. They do so because their own pass-
ports open few doors (see chart). Henley
and Partners, which advises people on how
to acquire a spare nationality, says inqui-
ries from Africa are up by a third compared
with last year. The firm is opening an office
in Lagos, adding to those in Johannesburg
and Cape Town. Habila Malgwi of Arton
Capital, another adviser, says it has agents
in 15 African countries and plans to open an
office on the continent “very, very soon”.
Covid-19 has led to soaring interest. People,
he says, are looking for a Plan b.
Mr Agono, who is waiting for his new
passport, hopes it will help him enter new
markets. There are intangible benefits, too.
Tari Best, who runs a Nigerian logistics
company, is expanding his business to Sin-
gapore. With his new Grenadian passport
“we are treated as equals”, he says. Others
wish to whisk a spouse or lover off to the
French Riviera or nip over to their kids at
Eton without queuing for visas. And a few,
of course, want to up sticks altogether.
The wealthy country-shopper has a
range of options. A passport from Antigua
and Barbuda requires a “contribution” ofWealthy Africans are snapping up
foreign passportsTravel troubleCitizens of the
world
The book of freedom
Number of destinations for which no visa
is required*,bypassportheld,atApril7th 2020Source: Henley & Partners Passport Index 2020 *Out of 227NigeriaAngolaGhanaKenyaSouth AfricaDominicaGrenadaCyprusMalta100500 150 227200