The EconomistJune 27th 2020 Europe 392 for directing drone strikes in Afghanistan,
Pakistan, Somalia and Yemen (to some Ger-
man consternation). The Landstuhl mili-
tary hospital has treated 95,000 American
soldiers wounded in Iraq and Afghanistan
since 2001. “The amount of time and lives
that that has saved is just incredible,” says
Rachel Ellehuus, a former Pentagon official
now at the Centre for Strategic and Interna-
tional Studies, a think-tank. A vast $990m
replacement, nicknamed the “ufo” by lo-
cals, is being built nearby. At least 40% of
American activity in Germany supports op-
erations elsewhere, estimates Ms Ellehuus.
A drawdown would follow a decades-
long thinning of America’s presence. Over
10m of its troops were cycled through Ger-
many from 1950 to 2000, with 250,000 de-
ployed for much of that time. That had
dwindled to under 70,000 by the turn of
the millennium, and fell by half again be-
tween 2006 and 2018. Between 2005 and
2020 America’s overall footprint in Europe
shrank by over a third. That leaves little fat
to trim. American capabilities in Europe
are spread so thinly across various func-
tions that cutting any one of them by 30%
would, in effect, eliminate it, warns Gen-
eral Hodges. American generals in Ger-
many are said to be baffled by the proposal.
Yet among Germans the plan has elicit-
ed a broad shrug, at least in public. Watch-
ing a Pentagon apparently at odds with the
White House, German officials know they
can only hope to be bystanders. Barely half
of German voters see American bases as
important to national security. Although
Germany is still far short of the natode-
fence-spending target of 2% of gdp(see
chart), and plans to reach it only in 2031, re-
cent increases mean that in absolute terms
its military budget is now not much differ-
ent from that of Britain or France. Ameri-
can accusations of free-riding therefore no
longer carry quite the same sting.
Nerves are jumpier farther east. A draw-
down from Germany could weakennato’s
ability to send reinforcements to “tripwire”
battle groups stationed in Poland and the
Baltic states to deter Russia. Worse still,
America seems to be playing allies off
against one another, undermining nato
cohesion. On June 24th Mr Trump, stand-
ing beside Andrzej Duda, Poland’s presi-
dent, at the White House, said some Ameri-
can troops would probably be moved from
Germany to Poland. The meeting was a wel-
come boost for Mr Duda, who faces elec-
tions on June 28th and has long courted a
greater American military presence. (In
June last year Mr Trump agreed to send Po-
land 1,000 troops, on top of 4,500 already
there.) But Mr Duda also felt compelled to
say that he had asked Mr Trump not to
withdraw any troops from Europe.
At home, Mr Trump’s announcement
has had the unusual effect of galvanising
bipartisan opposition. Twenty-two Repub-
lican members of Congress objected that
cutting troops would encourage Russian
aggression and undermine American mili-
tary effectiveness. A Democratic bill seeks
to deny funding for costs incurred by the
withdrawal. With barely four months until
an election that could see Mr Trump defeat-
ed by Joe Biden, who says he wants to repair
America’s alliances, delay to a withdrawal
plan that already faces considerable logis-
tical hurdles could be fatal.
Yet as Heiko Maas, Germany’s foreign
minister, has warned, the Atlantic is clearly
widening. Tiffs over energy, trade, security
and China are now threaded through the
entire transatlantic relationship. Pro-
American Germans say the sabre-rattling
of Mr Trump and Mr Grenell makes it hard-
er for them to make their case to a sceptical
public. A recent Pew poll found that Ger-
mans now value their relations with China
as strongly as those with the United States.
Still, at least in Kaiserslautern, America-
philia reigns supreme. “We don’t want the
troops to leave,” says Mr Weiler. “It’s an
honour to have them here.” 7Baden-
WürttembergNorthRhine-
WestphaliaRhineland-
PalatinateHesseRamsteinABLandstuhlGrafenwöhrBavariaBerlinMunichStuttgartKaiserslauternWiesbaden CZECH
REP.SWITZERLAND AUSTRIAFRANCEGERMANY
100 kmArmy Air forceUS military installations, 2020Source: US Department of DefenceWitha littlehelpfrommyfriendsSources:TheHeritageFoundation;
USDepartmentofDefence;
German parliament; SIPRI*WestGermanyto 1990
†March 2020 including
proposed 9,500 cut in troops6 5 4 3 2 1 0
300250200150100500
102000908070601950 20US military personnel
deployed in Germany*, ’000German military
spending*,
%ofGDP†German
reunificationI
taly hashad other non-party, techno-
cratic leaders in modern times: Carlo
Ciampi, Lamberto Dini and Mario Monti,
all of whom came into office with more il-
lustrious cvs than Giuseppe Conte. Mr
Conte was an unknown law professor
when, in 2018, he was tapped by the anti-es-
tablishment Five Star Movement (m 5 s) to
lead its populist coalition with the hard-
right Northern League. Yet none of the oth-
er technocrats succeeded in heading a sec-
ond government, as Mr Conte has done
since last September, when the m 5 s
switched partners to yoke itself to the cen-
tre-left Democratic Party.
Not only that; Mr Conte has grown in-
creasingly popular. Surveys by Ipsos, a
polling firm, found that the prime minis-
ter’s approval ratings shot up in March
from around 50% to 61%, the same figure as
recorded again on June 11th. That was clear-
ly because of covid-19, which may seem
odd. On March 9th Mr Conte imposed one
of Europe’s strictest lockdowns, and his
government’s handling of the crisis was
scarcely faultless. But within Europe Italy
was the first country badly hit by covid-19,
and Italians seem not only to have made al-
lowances for that, but to have appreciated
the way Mr Conte took responsibility for
managing the crisis.
Reinforcing his authoritative image, Mr
Conte called a nine-day think-in on how to
revive Italy’s economy, grandiloquently
entitled a States General. Its most eye-
catching suggestion, a drastic cut in vat,
received a lukewarm reception. Still, Mr
Conte remains more popular than any
party leader, and much recent speculation
has centred on whether he might become
one—either as head of the Five Stars, lead-
erless since the resignation of Luigi Di
Maio in January, or a new formation which,
it has been mooted, could name itself Con
te (Italian for “With you”).
Mr Conte has pooh-poohed the second
possibility. He is doubtless aware of Mr
Monti’s unhappy experience at a general
election in 2013, when his alliance won less
than 11% of the vote. Polls have suggested a
putative Con te could fare even worse, but
that an m 5 sheaded by the prime minister
might harvest 20% or even 30% of the vote.
That is a tempting prospect, not just for Mr
Conte, but for a party that has lurched be-
tween fiascos and scandals since last Sep-
tember. The latest setback came in a report
that Gianroberto Casaleggio, who helpedROME
Its technocratic prime minister is
surprisingly popularItalyNo longer a
figurehead
1