The Economist - USA (2020-06-27)

Economic data

Gross domestic product Consumer prices Unemployment Current-account Budget Interest rates Currency units

% change on year ago % change on year ago rate balance balance 10-yr gov't bonds change on per $ % change

latest quarter* 2020† latest 2020† % % of GDP, 2020† % of GDP, 2020† latest,% year ago, bp Jun 24th on year ago

United States 0.3 Q1 -5.0 -4.8 0.1 May 0.7 13.3 May -1.8 -14.0 0.7 -133 -

China -6.8 Q1 -33.8 1.0 2.4 May 4.0 3.7 Q1§ 0.8 -6.0 2.6 §§ -46.0 7.07 -2.7

Japan -1.7 Q1 -2.2 -5.2 nil May -0.1 2.6 Apr 3.4 -11.1 nil -8.0 107 0.4

Britain -1.6 Q1 -7.7 -8.7 0.5 May 1.0 3.9 Mar†† -2.2 -14.9 0.2 -67.0 0.80 -1.3

Canada -0.9 Q1 -8.2 -5.1 -0.4 May 0.5 13.7 May -3.4 -9.3 0.6 -91.0 1.36 -2.9

Euro area -3.1 Q1 -13.6 -8.2 0.1 May 0.3 7.3 Apr 2.0 -8.6 -0.4 -14.0 0.89 -1.1

Austria -2.9 Q1 -11.6 -6.0 0.7 May 0.7 4.8 Apr 0.1 -6.3 -0.2 -19.0 0.89 -1.1

Belgium -2.5 Q1 -13.6 -7.9 0.5 May 0.5 5.6 Apr -1.5 -7.7 -0.1 -17.0 0.89 -1.1

France -5.0 Q1 -19.7 -9.9 0.4 May 0.4 8.7 Apr -1.1 -11.0 -0.1 -17.0 0.89 -1.1

Germany -2.3 Q1 -8.6 -5.8 0.6 May 0.8 3.5 Apr 5.4 -6.1 -0.4 -14.0 0.89 -1.1

Greece -1.2 Q1 -6.2 -7.0 -1.1 May -0.4 14.4 Mar -3.0 -6.1 1.3 -119 0.89 -1.1

Italy -5.4 Q1 -19.6 -10.8 -0.2 May -0.2 6.3 Apr 2.0 -12.0 1.4 -81.0 0.89 -1.1

Netherlands -0.2 Q1 -5.8 -6.0 1.2 May 0.9 3.8 Mar 4.0 -5.4 -0.3 -22.0 0.89 -1.1

Spain -4.1 Q1 -19.4 -11.0 -0.9 May -0.3 14.8 Apr 1.4 -10.7 0.5 7.0 0.89 -1.1

Czech Republic -1.7 Q1 -12.7 -7.5 2.9 May 2.4 2.3 Apr‡ -1.3 -7.0 0.8 -73.0 23.7 -5.2

Denmark -0.4 Q1 -8.0 -4.5 nil May 0.4 5.4 Apr 5.3 -6.0 -0.3 -6.0 6.61 -0.8

Norway 1.1 Q1 -6.0 -5.5 1.3 May 0.2 4.2 Apr‡‡ 1.6 -0.9 0.7 -78.0 9.59 -11.5

Poland 1.7 Q1 -1.6 -3.5 2.9 May 3.0 6.0 May§ -1.4 -5.2 1.4 -97.0 3.95 -5.6

Russia 1.6 Q1 na -5.2 3.0 May 4.2 6.1 May§ 0.2 -4.2 5.8 -174 69.2 -9.2

Sweden 0.4 Q1 0.5 -5.1 nil May 0.5 9.0 May§ 1.2 -4.4 nil -3.0 9.31 nil

Switzerland -1.3 Q1 -10.0 -6.0 -1.3 May -1.0 3.4 May 7.1 -6.3 -0.4 9.0 0.95 2.1

Turkey 4.5 Q1 na -5.9 11.4 May 11.2 13.2 Mar§ -2.1 -6.3 11.5 -477 6.85 -15.3

Australia 1.4 Q1 -1.2 -4.2 2.2 Q1 1.6 7.1 May -2.5 -6.8 0.9 -38.0 1.45 -0.7

Hong Kong -8.9 Q1 -19.6 -3.3 1.5 May 1.4 5.9 May‡‡ 2.6 -5.3 0.7 -95.0 7.75 0.8

India 3.1 Q1 1.2 -5.8 5.8 Mar 3.4 23.5 May -0.4 -7.4 5.9 -93.0 75.7 -8.4

Indonesia 3.0 Q1 na 1.0 2.2 May 1.3 5.0 Q1§ -1.4 -6.5 7.1 -34.0 14,140 nil

Malaysia 0.7 Q1 na -5.1 -2.9 May nil 5.0 Apr§ 3.0 -6.8 3.0 -63.0 4.27 -3.0

Pakistan 0.5 2020** na -1.6 8.2 May 7.4 5.8 2018 -1.6 -10.2 8.6 ††† -553 167 -6.2

Philippines -0.2 Q1 -18.9 -1.3 2.1 May 1.6 17.7 Q2§ 1.1 -7.6 3.4 -171 50.0 2.8

Singapore -0.7 Q1 -4.7 -6.0 -0.8 May -0.2 2.4 Q1 19.3 -13.5 0.9 -107 1.39 -2.9

South Korea 1.4 Q1 -5.0 -2.1 -0.3 May 0.5 4.5 May§ 4.0 -4.7 1.4 -20.0 1,200 -3.6

Taiwan 1.6 Q1 -3.6 -2.0 -1.2 May -0.8 4.2 May 11.9 -5.1 0.5 -21.0 29.5 5.3

Thailand -1.8 Q1 -8.5 -5.3 -3.4 May 0.2 1.0 Mar§ 3.4 -6.5 1.1 -77.0 30.8 -0.3

Argentina -5.4 Q1 -18.0 -10.0 43.4 May‡ 41.9 10.4 Q1§ 1.4 -7.7 na -464 70.1 -39.1

Brazil -0.3 Q1 -6.0 -7.5 1.9 May 2.5 12.6 Apr§‡‡ -2.5 -16.3 2.0 -388 5.26 -27.4

Chile 0.4 Q1 12.7 -4.8 2.8 May 3.2 9.0 Apr§‡‡ -4.5 -11.0 2.2 -111 820 -16.7

Colombia 0.4 Q1 -9.2 -7.7 2.9 May 1.9 19.8 Apr§ -5.2 -7.1 5.8 -23.0 3,723 -14.0

Mexico -1.4 Q1 -4.9 -9.2 2.8 May 2.6 3.3 Mar -2.7 -4.6 6.0 -173 22.6 -15.0

Peru -3.4 Q1 -19.5 -9.2 1.8 May 1.7 7.6 Mar§ -2.2 -13.2 3.9 -105 3.53 -6.5

Egypt 5.6 Q4 na 0.9 4.8 May 6.8 7.7 Q1§ -4.0 -11.0 na nil 16.2 3.1

Israel 0.4 Q1 -6.8 -4.0 -1.6 May -1.0 4.2 May 3.2 -11.3 0.6 -95.0 3.44 4.7

Saudi Arabia 0.3 2019 na -5.2 1.0 May 1.2 5.7 Q4 -6.4 -11.2 na nil 3.75 nil

South Africa -0.5 Q4 -1.4 -7.0 2.9 Apr 3.6 30.1 Q1§ -2.6 -12.4 9.2 99.0 17.3 -17.0

Source: Haver Analytics. *% change on previous quarter, annual rate. †The Economist Intelligence Unit estimate/forecast. §Not seasonally adjusted. ‡New series. **Year ending June. ††Latest 3 months. ‡‡3-month moving

average. §§5-year yield. †††Dollar-denominated bonds.

76 The EconomistJune 27th 2020

Commodities

TheEconomist commodity-price index % change on

2015=100 Jun 16th Jun 23rd* month year

DollarIndex

AllItems 110.4 109.5 2.2 -8.1

Food 91.3 90.8 -3.0 -7.3

Industrials

All 128.3 127.0 6.0 -8.7

Non-foodagriculturals 89.5 92.9 6.1 -9.6

Metals 139.8 137.1 6.0 -8.5

SterlingIndex

Allitems 134.1 133.5 0.8 -6.7

EuroIndex

Allitems 109.0 107.2 -0.9 -7.7

Gold

$ peroz 1,727.3 1,767.0 3.4 23.4

Brent

$ perbarrel 41.0 42.7 17.7 -34.8

Sources:Bloomberg; CME Group; Cotlook; Datastream from Refinitiv;

Fastmarkets;FT; ICCO; ICO; ISO; Live Rice Index; LME; NZ Wool

Services;Thompson Lloyd & Ewart; Urner Barry; WSJ. *Provisional.

Markets

% change on: % change on:

Index one Dec 31st index one Dec 31st

In local currency Jun 24th week 2019 Jun 24th week 2019

United States S&P 500 3,050.3 -2.0 -5.6

United States NAScomp 9,909.2 nil 10.4

China Shanghai Comp 2,979.6 1.5 -2.3

China Shenzhen Comp 1,947.7 2.3 13.0

Japan Nikkei 225 22,534.3 0.3 -4.7

Japan Topix 1,580.5 -0.4 -8.2

Britain FTSE 100 6,123.7 -2.1 -18.8

Canada S&P TSX 15,294.4 -0.9 -10.4

Euro area EURO STOXX 50 3,196.1 -2.2 -14.7

France CAC 40 4,871.4 -2.5 -18.5

Germany DAX* 12,093.9 -2.3 -8.7

Italy FTSE/MIB 19,163.0 -2.2 -18.5

Netherlands AEX 557.3 -1.6 -7.8

Spain IBEX 35 7,195.5 -3.8 -24.6

Poland WIG 50,479.6 0.3 -12.7

Russia RTS, $ terms 1,281.2 3.5 -17.3

Switzerland SMI 10,022.0 -1.8 -5.6

Tu r ke y BIST 114,448.9 3.2 nil

Australia All Ord. 6,081.6 -0.5 -10.6

Hong Kong Hang Seng 24,781.6 1.2 -12.1

India BSE 34,869.0 4.1 -15.5

Indonesia IDX 4,964.7 -0.5 -21.2

Malaysia KLSE 1,502.6 -1.6 -5.4

Pakistan KSE 34,034.7 0.5 -16.4

Singapore STI 2,628.6 -1.5 -18.4

South Korea KOSPI 2,161.5 1.0 -1.6

Taiwan TWI 11,660.7 1.1 -2.8

Thailand SET 1,333.4 -3.1 -15.6

Argentina MERV 40,435.3 -0.1 -3.0

Brazil BVSP 94,377.4 -1.2 -18.4

Mexico IPC 37,908.4 nil -12.9

Egypt EGX 30 11,039.5 1.2 -20.9

Israel TA-125 1,345.7 -4.9 -16.8

Saudi Arabia Tadawul 7,213.4 -1.3 -14.0

South Africa JSE AS 54,447.7 0.8 -4.6

World, dev'd MSCI 2,180.1 -1.7 -7.6

Emerging markets MSCI 1,010.8 1.6 -9.3

US corporate bonds, spread over Treasuries

Dec 31st

Basis points latest 2019

Investment grade 197 141

High-yield 652 449

Sources: Datastream from Refinitiv; Standard & Poor's Global Fixed

Income Research. *Total return index.

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