The New York Times - USA (2020-06-28)

12 0 N THE NEW YORK TIMES, SUNDAY, JUNE 28, 2020

Tracking an OutbreakThe Government’s Role

LONDON — When 50 British
scientists and government offi-
cials got on a Zoom call on May 7,
emotions were running high, and
not just because Britain had over-
taken Italy for having the highest
death toll from the coronavirus in
Europe.
Two days earlier, a prominent
epidemiologist on the govern-
ment’s Scientific Advisory Group
for Emergencies, Neil Ferguson,
abruptly resigned after being con-
fronted by a newspaper with evi-
dence that he had breached Brit-
ain’s lockdown rules by inviting a
woman to visit him in his London
apartment.
Dr. Ferguson was the undisput-
ed star of the group, known by its
acronym, SAGE. The models gen-
erated by his team at Imperial
College London had guided the
government’s response to the cri-
sis from the earliest days. Yet, he
was being branded “Professor
Lockdown,” fodder for sneering
tabloid headlines.
As the scientists vented their
anxieties about their colleague’s
defenestration — and the unre-
lenting pressure and scrutiny that
comes with advising the govern-
ment during a once-in-a-century
pandemic — they were urged to
seek out “pastoral support” from a
new member, Ian L. Boyd, accord-
ing to minutes of the delibera-
tions.
A 63-year-old Scottish zoologist
who advised the government dur-
ing an earlier outbreak of avian
flu, Dr. Boyd is a veteran of the
tense interplay between scientists
and politicians. He was brought
into SAGE by its chairman, Pat-
rick Vallance, Prime Minister
Boris Johnson’s chief scientific ad-
viser, to observe the group’s de-
bates and to be a sympathetic ear
for the rattled scientists.
“There was an internal dynam-
ic going on that needed to be
treated,” Dr. Boyd said, declining
to get into details. “If it becomes
pathological, it’s for me to call it
out. But I hope everybody feels
they’re listened to.”
That SAGE would need the
equivalent of an in-house thera-
pist is less surprising than it might
seem. No other group has at-
tracted more attention or aroused
more suspicion during Britain’s
pandemic than this elite panel of
experts.
At first, it operated under a veil
of secrecy, refusing to disclose its
members and offering only spare
details of its deliberations. Then,
under pressure from lawmakers,
the government partly lifted the
veil, naming all but a handful of
the participants, who wished to
remain anonymous, and posting
redacted minutes of its meetings.
The group’s academic fire-
power is impressive: It includes
experts in fields from virology to

behavioral science, from labs at

Cambridge, Oxford, Imperial Col-

lege and the London School of Hy-

giene and Tropical Medicine.

But transparency brought its

own set of challenges. The role the

scientists played in Britain’s dila-

tory response to the virus has

come under sharper scrutiny, es-

pecially because Mr. Johnson and

his ministers repeatedly claim to

be “guided by the science” in im-

posing or relaxing lockdowns.

Some scientists worry that Mr.

Johnson is setting them up to take

the blame for the death toll, which

now exceeds 43,000.

As the group’s work has come

increasingly into the public eye,

the members’ advice is now sec-

ond-guessed on social media.

Their academic quarrels are

hinted at in the minutes of their

meetings. And as Dr. Ferguson’s

indiscretions showed, not even

their private lives are off limits.

“It was utterly horrible to see

what happened to him,” said Julia

Gog, a professor of mathematical

biology at the University of Cam-

bridge. “It was also extremely un-

settling to other modelers, espe-

cially to junior scientists. It was a

huge shock to see one of our col-

leagues treated in this way, and it

certainly had an effect on the re-

searchers.”

Dr. Gog described a pressure-

cooker atmosphere, in which the

scientists are handed complex as-

signments on very tight deadlines

and have to make recommenda-

tions in a rapidly changing envi-

ronment — all while holding down

their day jobs and dealing with the

stresses of the lockdown in their

personal lives.

“I am desperately worried

about the well-being of lots of the

scientists involved,” Dr. Gog said.

“It has been so immersive. You

can’t get away. Even when you are

trying to not be working, every-

thing on the news is this, every-

thing anyone wants to talk about,

and your life is also controlled by

this.”

Academics relish debating with

their colleagues. But debating

while on a government panel in

the heat of a public-health emer-

gency is another matter. Members

of SAGE said they had fierce argu-

ments over whether to recom-

mend that the government urge

people to wear face masks. A

glimpse of that back-and-forth is

evident in the minutes.

At its April 21 meeting, the pan-

el concluded, “on balance, there is

enough evidence to support com-

munity use of cloth face masks, for

short periods in enclosed spaces

where social distancing is not pos-

sible.” But a week later, it

amended its minutes to add a line

noting that the “evidence is weak,

and it would be unreasonable to

claim a large benefit from wearing

a mask.”

It is not clear what triggered the

reversal, but it coincided with an

issue where Britain has been an

outlier among European coun-

tries. Although the government

recently required people to wear

face coverings on buses and sub-

ways, Mr. Johnson and his min-

isters have never actively encour-

aged their use, expressing doubts

about their efficacy. As a result,

relatively few Britons wear them.

One of Dr. Boyd’s mandates, he

said, was to review SAGE’s min-

utes to make sure they accurately

reflected the scientific advice. He

declined to elaborate further on

his role and Dr. Vallance turned

down a request for an interview.

But Dr. Boyd clearly arrived at a

charged moment. At its May 7

meeting, the panel said it needed

“a better mechanism for filtering

commissions and requests” from

the government. Weeding out ex-

traneous or convoluted requests

would “help the resilience of par-

ticipants of SAGE who will contin-

ue to work under intense pressure

in the Covid-19 response for many

more months.” It added that the

“need for pastoral support to be

available to participants was

noted.”

In addition to their mental

health, the government offered

the scientists counseling on how

to deal with abuse on social media,

according to an official, who noted

that a few even faced shouted epi-

thets on the street early in the cri-

sis, when the government was still

debating how to respond to the vi-

rus.

Dr. Ferguson, who did not re-

spond to requests for comment,

had his detractors in the group.

Some bridled at his appetite for

media coverage, which they said

interfered with its work. Rivals

noted that his early models under-

estimated how fast the virus

spread. But others argued that

changes in projections — even

radical ones — were inevitable,

given how little was known about

this virus.

The constant uncertainty has

posed a challenge to Dr. Vallance

and Chris Whitty, the chief medi-

cal officer, who serves as co-chair-

man of the panel. They must navi-

gate between politicians like Mr.

Johnson, who often turn to them

for validation of their policies, and

the scientists, who are often divid-

ed about the proper response.

“The evidence is not clear even

now,” said David Spiegelhalter, a

statistics professor at the Univer-

sity of Cambridge and a member.

“That means that there are hugely

different interpretations of almost

the same information. And there

are presumably some strong per-

sonalities that can be dominant.”

Other scientists said some de-

gree of dysfunction was under-

standable, given the panel’s his-

tory. Its last major assignment

was to advise the government in

the aftermath of the poisoning of a

Russian former spy, Sergei V. Skri-

pal, in Salisbury, England. That

work was conducted at a high lev-

el of secrecy, involved narrow

questions of security and intelli-

gence and got very little public ex-

posure.

“SAGE went from being this in-

ternal advisory group to some-

thing that is much bigger in the

public domain,” Dr. Boyd said.

Some scientists worry that

their advice is cherry-picked and

politicized. Susan Michie, a pro-

fessor of health psychology at

University College London, noted

that a SAGE committee on which

she serves produced a detailed

study of the risks of cutting the so-

cial distancing rule from two me-

ters (six feet) to one meter.

It concluded that shortening to

one meter raised the risk of trans-

mission by twice to 10 times,

though it said the dangers could

be mitigated with protective

measures like ventilation, plastic

dividers and face coverings. Mr.

Johnson said little about the

heightened risks when, after con-

siderable pressure from the hospi-

tality industries, he announced

the loosened rules this past week.

“The overwhelming majority of

our advice is ignored,” Dr. Michie

said, “but the pieces are picked up

and used for political purposes.”

As the government moves to re-

open Britain’s economy, it may

rely less on the advice of its scien-

tific advisers and more on a new

Joint Biosecurity Center, which it

set up last month to detect out-

breaks of the virus and advise the

government on how to respond to

them — for example, by closing

schools or offices. The center is

led by Clare Gardiner, a cyber-

security expert who worked at

Government Communications

Headquarters, or GCHQ, Britain’s

secretive electronic surveillance

agency.

Mr. Johnson cited the center’s

Covid-19 alert system, which

measures the prevalence of the vi-

rus, as one reason to ease the lock-

down. The threat level was re-

cently lowered from four, signify-

ing high or exponentially increas-

ing transmission, to three,

signifying general circulation in

the population.

For some scientists, the new

center is a necessary recognition

that the coronavirus will be

around for a year or more, and the

government cannot rely on

SAGE’s ad hoc, overworked mem-

bers to analyze every outbreak.

Others, though, worry that poli-

ticians could use it to circumvent

unwelcome advice.

“Now that the government

doesn’t seem to like SAGE’s ad-

vice so much, they can set up their

own review,” Dr. Michie said.

“They can handpick their own sci-

entists.”

BRITAIN

For U.K. Science Advisers, Pressure, Anxieties and ‘Pastoral Support’

Shoppers in London this month. As the government moves to reopen the economy, it may rely less on the advice of its health experts.

TOLGA AKMEN/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE — GETTY IMAGES

By MARK LANDLER

and STEPHEN CASTLE

HOUSTON — Alex Belt, a sin-
gle mother of three girls and the
owner of Silly Silly Girls gift bou-
tique, has a succinct way of de-
scribing her life in Houston as offi-
cials warn of an alarming spike in
coronavirus cases: “Business as
usual without the business.”
When Ms. Belt, 46, first re-
opened her store after weeks of
mandatory business closures, a
wave of loyal customers came in
to show their support. Lately,
though, the store has often been
empty again as Houston residents

try to make sense of a fluctuating
series of recommendations from
state and local officials and a virus
that seems to be characterized
chiefly by its unpredictability.
“It’s hurt us all over the board,”
Ms. Belt said. “People are just
scared.”
On Friday, a troubling spike in
virus cases led county officials to
again urge residents to stay in
their homes, nearly two months
after the state had started to re-
open. Texas, like Florida and parts
of California, Idaho and other
states where cases are on the rise,
has reinstated some of the restric-

tions it once lifted. But some fear

that Texans who were told only re-

cently that it was safe to gather in

small numbers, shop and go to

restaurants may not be as willing

to hunker down inside — again.

When officials in Harris County,

which includes Houston, sent a

message to residents’ cellphones

on Friday evening, alerting them

that the virus threat level had

been bumped up to “LEVEL 1

(RED) SEVERE,” many residents

were doing the opposite of what

the advisory recommended:

avoid gatherings, stay at home ex-

cept for necessary tasks and wear

a mask.

The bumper-to-bumper vehi-

cles crawling along a section of In-

terstate 610 resembled pre-coro-

navirus traffic. And at a shopping

plaza off Interstate 10 with a view

of the downtown skyline, the park-

ing lot was packed, as shoppers

headed in and out of a grocery

store, liquor shop and salon.

Houston had until recently

avoided the worst of the pan-

demic. In April, county officials

had shuttered a medical shelter

that was meant to serve coro-

navirus patients in case hospitals

were overrun. That never hap-

pened. On May 1, Gov. Greg Ab-

bott said he would begin to reopen

the state in phases.

But on Friday, Lina Hidalgo, the

Harris County judge, warned that

hospitals would be overwhelmed

if people did not stay inside.

“We are in a worse situation

now than we were back then, and

the only thing that worked back

then was flattening that curve by

staying home,” Ms. Hidalgo said

at a news conference, adding

bluntly that the rise in cases was

happening because “we opened

too quickly.”

Harris County, home to about

4.7 million people, has seen a sud-

den rise in reported cases over the

last few weeks. There have now

been at least 28,255 cases in the

county and 361 deaths, a majority

of which have come from within

Houston’s city limits.

But despite Ms. Hidalgo’s urg-

ing residents to stay home, the

county is not under a stay-at-

home order as it was two months

ago because Mr. Abbott’s reopen-

ing guidelines supersede Ms. Hi-

dalgo’s recommendations. She

said at the news conference that

she had urged the governor to let

her issue an enforceable stay-at-

home order, and when that did not

happen, she pleaded with resi-

dents to remain at home volun-

tarily.

At Gatlin’s BBQ in Houston, the

restaurant owners kept a tighter

limit on customers than the state

guidelines require because Mary

Gatlin, 69, a co-owner, felt it was

simply too soon. They have been

mostly serving takeout and allow-

ing customers at only 25 percent

of full capacity. Even so, they are

sometimes selling out of brisket

and ribs.

“Our neighbors all around the

area, they actually support us,

and we really thank God for them,

because they’re helping to keep us

open and to keep the employees

that we have working,” Ms. Gatlin

said.

Houstonians are not the only

ones who have had to deal with

whipsawing public health guide-

lines. In Florida, where cases are

also rising, officials banned alco-

hol consumption at bars, an ac-

knowledgment that infections

could be spreading there. Bars in

and around Boise, Idaho, were or-

dered closed only weeks after

they had opened.

Russ Duke, the director of the

state health agency in Idaho that

oversees four central counties,

moved Ada County, which in-

cludes Boise, back one stage in its

reopening progression this week

after investigators determined

that half of the region’s new cases

were among people who had

flocked to the just-opened bars

and nightclubs. Mr. Duke said it

seemed increasingly clear that re-

opening would have to happen

slowly and cautiously, allowing a

reversal to more restrictive meas-

ures if things got worse.

“We’ll be able to kind of dial this

up and down based on what we’re

seeing,” Mr. Duke said, later add-

ing: “The sad reality is there’s go-

ing to be no choice but to imple-

ment restrictions and lift restric-

tions until we have a vaccine or an

effective treatment.”

That back-and-forth in several

states raised questions about how

seriously the public would comply

after weeks of relative freedom.

“It’s hard to put the toothpaste

back in the tube once you’ve got it

out,” said Brandon Rottinghaus, a

political-science professor at the

University of Houston. “It’s hard

to get enough people to follow the

rules when the rules keep chang-

ing.”

As cases rise in Harris County,

residents have overrun testing

sites. Two stadium testing loca-

tions in Houston reached capacity

just hours after opening on Satur-

day, according to the city’s Health

Department.

Joi Ross-Moore said she arrived

at a drive-through facility at 8 a.m.

on Tuesday and was told that peo-

ple had been waiting since 4 a.m.

Unable to get a test, Ms. Ross-

Moore had to go to a different fa-

cility the next day.

“It’s exploded here,” Ms. Ross-

Moore said.

Ms. Belt saw a good uptick in

business at her boutique after it

reopened, with a lot of loyal

customers — mostly neighbor-

hood moms — coming back to

show their support, buying art-

work, gifts and toys.

Since then, while there are

plenty of people at malls and

restaurants, there have been only

a handful of customers at her

store.

The drop in sales is hurting her

bottom line, but she understands

that people are frightened. She is,

too.

“This is unfortunately what we

have to deal with,” she said. “It’s

scary.”

TEXAS

‘We Opened Too Quickly’: Calls to Return Home as Cases Surge in Houston

A drive-through coronavirus testing center in Houston. The threat in Harris County, which in-

cludes Houston, was increased to its top level on Friday, as people packed stores and salons.

ERIN TRIEB FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES

By MANNY FERNANDEZ

and DAVID MONTGOMERY

Manny Fernandez reported from
Houston and David Montgomery
from Austin, Texas. Nicholas Bo-
gel-Burroughs and Giulia McDon-
nell Nieto del Rio contributed re-
porting from New York.

After a brief taste of

mobility, officials ask

millions to voluntarily

stop gathering.