SIMPLY ENUMERATINGthe crises afflicting
the United States this year is an exhausting
job.
Consider that the country has already ex-
perienced a presidential impeachment trial,
the onset of a tenacious coronavirus pan-
demic and a grave recession. Add to all of
that the heartbreaking video recordings of
police officers killing people of color, which
vastly amplified the power of the Black
Lives Matter movement and led to a presi-
dential threat to unleash armed forces in
the streets.
Enough already, right? But there’s more.
Even if, by some serendipitous twist, the
shocks of 2020 stopped right now, the
United States would face predictable trau-
mas already locked in the calendar — most
notably an election season of monumental
vitriol and consequence that has barely
begun.
What’s just as extraordinary as all of this
is the stock market’s reaction to it. The S&P
500 is down about 7 percent for 2020, and if
you haven’t been following closely, it may
look as though little has happened in the
world. But the numbers plainly show that
the market has been traveling in rare and,
in some ways, troubling territory.
Recall that in the first three months of the
year, as the pandemic and its economic con-
sequences set in, stocks had a calamitous
decline. Then, after the Federal Reserve an-
nounced an intervention in late March, the
stock market soared even as the economy
sank.
Equities have seldom moved as sharply
down and then up, from quarter to quarter,
as they have this year. Calling the stock
market a “roller coaster” is a cliché, yet if
the term were ever apt, it would be so now.
This particular sequence of extreme
movements — a remarkably bad quarter,
followed by a remarkably good one —
makes this market noteworthy from a his-
torical standpoint.
In the United States since 1928, there has
been only one instance when the stock mar-
ket declined at least 20 percent in one quar-
ter and rose at least 20 percent in the next,
according to data supplied by Bespoke In-
vestment Group, an independent market
research firm. That was in the heart of the
Great Depression in 1932, an era of misery
and staggering unemployment. It’s not a
year that anyone wants to see again.
Stocks have declined somewhat amid
new flare-ups of the coronavirus and fresh
warnings about the weakness of the econ-
omy, and the quarter doesn’t end until June- Even so, the stock market is flirting with
an unenviable distinction. Stocks have de-
clined at least 15 percent in one quarter and
risen at least 15 percent the next only eight
times, and seven of them were during the
Great Depression. (The singular post-De-
pression quarters were in 1970, during a
Nixon-era recession.)
It would be easy to simply rejoice at the
market’s outsize gains. But there were far
better quarterly returns — two quarters
with gains of more than 80 percent — in 1932
and again in 1933, back in the Great Depres-
sion.
These echoes of the Great Depression are
disturbing for many reasons.
It’s not just that unemployment stayed
above 12 percent for nine years in that dis-
mal period, or that, despite some periodic
improvements, the economy was mired in a
long-term slump that didn’t end until World
War II.
As the economist Robert Shiller has writ-
ten, the enormous gains that recurred sev-
eral times in the stock market of the Great
Depression were accompanied by periodic
crashes and longer-term stagnation that
could have swept any profits away. It was
an inauspicious moment to be a buy-and-
hold investor.
In fact, despite those glorious streaks in
the 1930s, it took 20 years for the stock mar-
ket to rise above its 1929 peak and stay
there, when you include dividends and in-
flation, Professor Shiller has found.
Imagine if that happened today. Invest-
ors would be living in a world of pain. It
wouldn’t be until 2040 that the stock marketcrossed the peak reached in February
(again, dividends and inflation included).
Such parallels can be overdrawn, of
course. For comfort, emphasize that the
current era is very different.
“What’s unique about this period is that
the stock market is hostage to the health
data,” said Paul Hickey, a co-founder of Be-
spoke. “Coming into the fall, I think, the
economy and the stock market are going to
be dependent on how the health numbers
come out, and unfortunately none of us
know the answer to that.”
It is quite possible that once the coro-
navirus pandemic is behind us — whenever
that may be — the stock market and, more
important, the real economy will flourish.
Those assumptions are certainly built into
current stock market prices.
But pockets of irrational exuberance
clearly exist. Hertz, as I wrote recently, is in
bankruptcy but wanted to sell new stock
anyway, saying quite openly that there was
a good chance the stock would be entirely
worthless. The Securities and Exchange
Commission raised questions about that
stock offering, and Hertz canceled it.
But Hertz’s assessment of the stock mar-
ket climate seemed on the mark. It wanted
to take advantage of a “unique opportunity”
— the current day-trading frenzy.
Thanks in large part to the Federal Re-
serve’s intervention in the markets since
late March, risk-taking abounds, some-
times in willful disregard of unappealing
stock valuations. As I’ve pointed out, the
market has often operated as though the
current problems of the world, and of public
companies, were irrelevant.
Even when stocks make sense in the pan-
demic, exuberant traders have been push-
ing prices to stratospheric levels. Zoom Vid-
eo has become a household name because
of the coronavirus, but its earnings are
small. Does it really merit a price-to-earn-
ings ratio of 1,421.4 — Apple’s is 28.3 — and a
gain this year of more than 270 percent?
Depending on your point of view, traders
have either ignored the economic devasta-
tion wrought by the coronavirus — or had
the wisdom to focus on the earnings that
will flow once the pandemic ends.
Critiques of current market prices are in-
creasingly common. David Solomon, the
chief executive of Goldman Sachs, said on
Wednesday, “The equity market does seem
to be a little bit ahead of my view of the fu-
ture earnings performance of businesses.”
He added that he expected price declines
“over time.”
Stay strong. The year isn’t even half over.The Market Partied Like It Was 1932
OTTO STEININGERA snapback rally after a deep
coronavirus-induced plunge
looks like troubling territory.
What’s different: ‘The
stock market is hostage
to the health data.’Follow Jeff Sommer on Twitter:
@jeffsommer
STRATEGIES JEFF SOMMER
THE NEW YORK TIMES, SUNDAY, JUNE 28, 2020 NBU 3Send questions about the
office, money, careers
and work-life balance to
[email protected].
Include your name and location,
even if you want them withheld.
Letters may be edited.
Q
:
I’m an undergraduate, and I’ve been discussing with my friends:
Is it wrong to get a summer job? One of our concerns is taking a
job from someone older than us who is possibly supporting other
people.ANONYMOUS, FLORIDA
I am genuinely moved by the considera-
tion in your question, especially given the
staggering number of unemployed Ameri-
cans. If more people were this considerate,
the world might be a different place. Go
ahead and get whatever summer job you
want. You are not taking anyone else’s job.
The job you find is your job. You may
not have people to support — though there
are many undergraduates who do indeed
have significant obligations — but you do
still need money for tuition or books or a
new tattoo or a trip to Cabo.
There are more job seekers than jobs,
but that is not your problem to solve. This,
ideally, is why we have elected leaders.
The state of the economy is their responsi-
bility, one they are presently, and shame-
fully, shirking. I commend you for showing
more leadership than those who govern
us.AM I TOKENIZING MY EMPLOYEES?I am a co-founder of a small business. We
have a significant number of black staff
members in high-ranking and visible roles,
and I regularly include photos and videos of
them in our marketing. I’m concerned about
the optics. Will my business look like we are
“using” these people I value? I have cringed
at posts I’ve seen from other companies,
showcasing what appears to be the single
black person at an organization.
Our business could not exist without our
amazing black staff members and our loyal
black clients. I’ve considered posting some-
thing explaining the black faces on our Insta-
gram feed. Bad idea?
I am a white woman. My heart hurts for the
black community. I want to do the right thing,
and I know I sometimes will screw things up. I
have been actively working on doing better.
KILE LAW, RALEIGH, N.C.
At nearly every job I’ve ever had, I’ve
been asked to participate in marketing
campaigns to make those universities or
companies seem more diverse than they
actually were. It was frustrating and
sometimes painful, especially when I was
not in a position to decline my participa-
tion and tokenization.
A great many organizations believe that
if they make it seem like they are diverse
and inclusive, that is just as good as actu-
ally being diverse and inclusive. These
half-assed efforts are, frankly, worse than
doing nothing at all. Thankfully, I am now
at a place in my career where I can and dorefuse to participate in disingenuous mar-
keting efforts. It serves no one to falsely
advertise inclusion efforts, because it lets
potential employees or clients believe a lie
about a given organization and what they
value.
I do think you’re overthinking this, but
it’s good that you’re asking these ques-
tions. We should all hold ourselves ac-
countable. If your business is genuinely as
inclusive as you think it is, you have noth-
ing to worry about. People who see your
marketing materials might incorrectly
assume that the black people you feature
are being tokenized, but so what? Let
them be wrong. Your actual practices are
far more important than their conde-
scending assumptions.
Please do not post a message explaining
the presence of black people in your mar-
keting. It isn’t necessary and would come
off as weird. If you want to make a state-
ment, you should talk about what inclu-
sion looks like in your organization, at
every level, and share how you intend to
sustain those efforts long-term. Some-
times it feels like the words “diversity and
inclusion” have become utterly meaning-
less placeholders. In truth, actions speak
louder than words. How you, as a business
owner, practice inclusion matters more
than any gestures you might make. I
understand what you’re feeling in this
moment of profound cultural change, but I
would worry less about getting things
wrong, and focus more of your energy on
how to get things closer to right.I’M ASHAMED FOR HATING MY JOBI am so unhappy with my job. I feel guilty for
feeling this way. I work at a multinational
company; I have big responsibilities and work
on strategic projects. Despite Covid-19, I still
have upward mobility and great perks. But I
want to leave. I feel uninspired and dread
most of my projects. I feel ungrateful and
ashamed. I’ve thought about quitting so
someone who’s out of work and can appreci-
ate the job more than I do can benefit from it.
But my company has stopped backfilling
positions at my level. It doesn’t feel right to
apply to the few interesting, available jobs
when there’s a growing pool of highly quali-
fied, unemployed professionals who need a
job more than I do.
How do I deal with work dissatisfaction in
these times? Do I even have a right to com-
plain? Should I just suck it up? How do I get
unstuck?ANONYMOUSProfessional dissatisfaction when you
have a “good job” is a problem you discuss
with your closest friends, the ones who
understand where you’re coming from
without judgment. I am not here to judge,
either. Millions of people are currently
unemployed. It is a travesty, but how you
feel about your job will not affect the un-
employment rate. Your guilt will not magi-
cally create positions for the more than 40
million people who have filed for unem-
ployment since March.
You have a right to complain. Complain-
ing about work, within reason, is healthy
and cathartic, especially when the world is
falling apart. It is low-stakes and harm-
less, so long as you are mindful of whom
you complain to, when, and how often.
If you enjoy martyrdom, you can suck it
up — but you don’t seem particularly
ungrateful. You are clear on your privi-
lege. Take time to figure out what lies at
the heart of your dissatisfaction. Deter-
mine if there is anything you can do to
address the why of your discontent. If
there is truly nothing that can be done tochange how you feel about your job, it is
time to start looking for other work. It
may be quite a long time before you find a
new job. A general rule of thumb is that it
takes a month for every $10,000 of income
you earn, and during a recession your job
search may be even more protracted. You
might also find something meaningful to
do in your free time to balance your pro-
fessional unhappiness. Now is an excellent
time to volunteer your energy and exper-
tise to a community organization or politi-
cal campaign. When you’re feeling help-
less, it’s good to look beyond yourself,
whether for distraction or perspective.
Let me know what you decide to do
after you’ve taken some time to reflect.
Flagellating yourself is only making your
misery more profound. Please be gentler
with yourself. I hope you find peace, both
professionally and personally.WORK FRIEND ROXANE GAY
When a Summer Job Feels Wrong
MARGEAUX WALTER FOR THE NEW YORK TIMESRoxane Gayis the author, most recently, of
“Hunger” and a contributing Opinion writer.
Write to her at [email protected].