4 July 2020 | New Scientist | 7MORE than half a million people
are now confirmed to have died
from the coronavirus, as local
outbreaks around the world trigger
fears of a second wave of covid-19.
Globally, a record 189,077 cases
were reported on 27 June, and
cases are rising in Africa, Asia
and North and South America.
Some of the surge is due to
greater testing, and the rate of
deaths is yet to see an equivalent
increase. However, the World
Health Organization (WHO)
believes the growth in daily cases
is down to a genuine acceleration
in the spread of the virus. “Intense
transmission is going on in many
communities in many parts
of the world,” a spokesperson
says. There are also flare-ups
in countries that successfully
lowered infection rates but
have since relaxed restrictions.Azra Ghani at Imperial College
London notes that in many
countries that rapidly introduced
lockdowns, such as South Korea,
only around 5 per cent of people
have had the virus. “Which means
as soon as you start to open up and
connections start to come back
between countries, it’s very likely
to take off again,” she says.
The South Korean government
declared the start of a “second
wave” of infections last week, due
to small clusters of cases after an
easing of restrictions in May. A
jump in cases in the Australian
state of Victoria has led to the
reintroduction of lockdown in
some areas of Melbourne. China
has reimposed a lockdown on400,000 people in Anxin county
near Beijing after 18 new cases.
“We are likely to see, in every
place, a relaxation and then maybe
a ramping up of interventions
again to control it. I expect we will
see continual waves,” says Ghani.
The US, which has the world’s
highest number of confirmed
cases and deaths, has had an uptick
in both in places that previously
seemed to have the virus under
control. Two months ago, almost
all 50 states had an estimated
reproduction number (R) of under
1, indicating that the epidemic was
in decline. But according to one
analysis, 33 now have an estimated
R of 1 or above, meaning the virus
will spread exponentially.Coronavirus infections are rising globally, including in some places
that had brought the virus under control, reports Adam VaughanCases flare up worldwide
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newscientist.com/coronavirus-latestGhani, whose colleagues have
modelled epidemics at a state-
level in the US, says many states
began to relax restrictions while R
was still above 1. She says: “I think
it’s inevitable we’ll see increasing
cases and deaths in the US.”
In Europe, cases rose in the
week commencing 15 June,
the first increase in months.
Sweden, Albania and Bosnia andHerzegovina were among the
nations that the WHO identified
as having a rise. Sweden said its
increase was due to greater testing
rather than fresh outbreaks.
Local outbreaks across Europe
have seen authorities taking new
action, such as nearly 300 people
who went to a Swiss nightclub
being quarantined after one
person later tested positive.
Meat-processing facilities, where
people work close together, have
emerged as the source of case
clusters in several countries,
including Germany.
However, the WHO has made
it clear that not all local outbreaks
are equal. The agency is less
concerned about some clusters
in Europe that were controlled
with a “rapid and targeted
response”, including restrictions
and ramped-up testing, than in
places where there is no such
quick and proportionate reaction.
David Heymann at the London
School of Hygiene & Tropical
Medicine says second waves are
“not the right way to think about
it” because, unlike flu, covid-
seems to spread in summer.
“It may be [better] to think about
suppressing and unsuppressing.
That’s what the countries are
going to have to do: unlock their
suppressing activities and if they
see suppression isn’t working as
they wanted it to do, they’ll have
to lockdown again,” he says. ❚People protest against
mandatory mask-
wearing in Texas“Nearly 300 people who
went to a Swiss nightclub
were quarantined after
one later tested positive”