May 2020, ScientificAmerican.com 13choose; by crashing tailored waveforms into one
another, they identified centimeter-scale precur-
sors that resulted in waves up to five times the
height of the surrounding ones.
The theory of large deviations also suggested
that any combination of waves that leads to a
significant height change will create a large wave
with one distinctive shape, regardless of initial
conditions—mathematically, wave formation
should take the most likely route that leads to
a rare event. And the tank measurements
proved that true. “All rogue waves are alike,”
Vanden-Eijnden says, “but each ordinary wave is
ordinary in its own way.”
The team’s model “seems to reconcile the two
main theories used so far to explain large and
rogue wave formation,” says Alvise Benetazzo,
a researcher at Italy’s Institute of Marine Sci ences,
who was not involved in the study. One theory
suggests they come from smaller waves simply
combining and piling up, and the other proposes
that variations in wave shapes amplify height dif-
ferences exponentially. Neither model had fully
aligned with earlier observations or experiments.
But the new calculations account for both
effects, which contribute in different amounts
based on water conditions, and they can be used
to estimate the likelihood and height of a rogue
wave arising from any set of ocean conditions. The
team is optimistic that if adapted to real-world
oceans with winds, currents and movement in any
direction, the model could be integrated into a
prediction system on ships, towers and platforms.
“Many experiments still must be performed,
especially in the field,” Benetazzo says. “That’s
the real playground where we want to explain
rogue wave formation.” — Rachel Berkowitz
another, they identified centimeter-scale precur-
sors that resulted in waves up to five times the
height of the surrounding ones.
The theory of large deviations also suggested
significant height change will create a large wave
with one distinctive shape, regardless of initial
should take the most likely route that leads to
a rare event. And the tank measurements
proved that true. “All rogue waves are alike,”
Vanden-Eijnden says, “but each ordinary wave is
ordinary in its own way.”
The team’s model “seems to reconcile the two
main theories used so far to explain large and
rogue wave formation,” says Alvise Benetazzo,
a researcher at Italy’s Institute of Marine Sci ences,
who was not involved in the study. One theor y
suggests they come from smaller waves simply
combining and piling up, and the other proposes
that variations in wave shapes amplify height dif-
ferences exponentially. Neither model had fully
aligned with earlier observations or experiments.
But the new calculations account for both
effects, which contribute in different amounts
based on water conditions, and they can be used
to estimate the likelihood and height of a rogue
wave arising from any set of ocean conditions. The
team is optimistic that if adapted to real-world
oceans with winds, currents and movement in any
direction, the model could be integrated into a
prediction system on ships, towers and platforms.
“Many experiments still must be performed,
especially in the field,” Benetazzo says. “That’s
the real playground where we want to explain
rogue wave formation.” —
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