◼ POLITICS Bloomberg Businessweek May27, 201942
THEBOTTOMLINE IslamicStatecellsin Africaarecurrently
no more than a regional threat, but terror experts fear a return of
global attacks if these offshoots are allowed to grow unchecked.beingpublishedthisyearonIslamicState’sactivities
onthecontinent.
Butthecellsstillbenefit.Theleadershipprovides
strategicandtheologicaladviceandhelpspub-
licizetheirattacksthroughitsslicksocialmedia
operationsandnewsletters.A formal alliance with
IslamicStatemakesit easierforAfrican groups to
attractandretainfighters,according to the CTC’s
paper.Andthephysicalseparationallows for day-
to-dayandtacticalindependence.Iswap is an exam-
ple.In 2016 it splitfromBokoHaram, which was
onceaffiliatedwithIslamicStateand is known for
kidnappingchildrenandstrappingbombs to them.
Thebreakawaymilitantswerefrustrated that
BokoHaram’sextremeaggression was turning
localsagainstit.Iswaphassincegained a reputation,
almostuniqueamongIslamicState’s affiliates, for
targetingsoldiersratherthancivilians, which ana-
lystssayis onereasonit’soutgrown Boko Haram.
Althoughstillviolent,thegrouphelps civilians by
diggingwells,providingsomehealth care, and pre-
ventingcattlerustling,Brussels-based International
CrisisGroupsaidina reportthismonth. “They are
tryingtowinheartsandmindsbydistinguishing
themselvesfromBokoHaramandoffering protec-
tiontopeopleandbusinessesfromthe Nigerian mil-
itary,whichis regularlyaccusedof human-rights
abuses,”Cummingssays.“It’sworking.”
Westernpowerstakethethreatof Islamic State
andotherjihadisinAfricaseriously. The U.S. has
thousandsofforcesonthecontinent, provides intel-
ligenceandmilitarysupporttoseveral governments,
andis steppingupairstrikesinSomalia,someof
whicharetargetedatIslamicState.Francehas
4,500counterterrorismtroopsinthe West African
Sahelregion.TheU.K.’sforeignsecretary, Jeremy
Hunt,suggestedinMaythatLondonwanted to pro-
videmoremilitaryhelpagainstIswap and Boko
Haram,butthattheNigeriangovernment was wary
ofhostingforeigncombattroops.
Washingtonseeslittleriskofattacks on U.S. soil
bytheAfricancellsofIslamicState,but it fears that
couldchangeif it takesoverlargeterritories or cre-
atesa caliphateonthecontinentakin to its for-
merstructureintheMiddleEast.Even if it doesn’t
achievethat,IslamicStateis alreadyreaping benefits
fromitsefforts.“Whatthey’redoing in Africa is to
showtheyhaveglobalreach,”saysJudd Devermont,
a formerCIAanalystwho’snowAfrica director at
theCenterforStrategicandInternational Studies in
Washington.“They’resaying:We’reundefeated. We
remaina player.”�PaulWallace3,500membersaccordingtotheCTC,mostof
theminnortheasternNigeria.Thatmakesit the
second-largestterrorist organization in Africa after
al-Shabaab, which is based in Somalia and linked to
al-Qaeda. ISGS gained notoriety when it killed four
AmericanandfiveNigeriensoldiersintheTongo
Tongo,Niger,ambushof2017;inEgypt,IslamicState
intheSinaiblewupa Russianairlinerwith 224 peo-
ple on board in 2015. A Libyan cell held the city of
Sirte for about a year until it was pushed out in 2016.
Although Islamic State’s ultimate goal may be
to merge its affiliates into something resembling a
cohesive unit, that’s improbable given their vastly
differinggeographiesandcultures,Stratfor’sAbi-
Hanna says.“Buttheydobenefitfromhaving
different branches in far-flung places,” he adds.
“Since 2014, when they declared a caliphate, they’ve
wanted to graduate from one core province to a
truly global network. Having provinces around the
globe—whether in Africa or elsewhere—achieves
their broader goal.”AsthegrouplostterritoryintheMiddleEast,and
thusitsabilitytolevytaxesandcontroloil-smuggling
routes, supporting operations abroad became
tougher. There’s little evidence of recent transfers
of money or fighters from the core of Islamic State
in Iraq and Syria to its affiliates in Africa, says Ryan
Cummings, a director at the business advisory firm
Signal Risk in Cape Town, who’s co-written a book◀ A mosque in
northeastern Nigeria
established by the
founder of Boko Haram