The New York Times - USA (2020-07-22)

A14 N THE NEW YORK TIMES NATIONALWEDNESDAY, JULY 22, 2020

It has been one of the most chal-
lenging election years in a cen-
tury: A deadly pandemic upended
normal voting in state-by-state
primaries, and a rapid expansion
of mail-in ballots struggled to
meet demand — problems exacer-
bated by the decades-long hollow-
ing out of the Voting Rights Act
and new, Republican-backed law-
suits to restrict ballot access.
And yet: Overall turnout
among voters casting ballots for
Democratic presidential candi-
dates so far this year has already
surpassed primary season levels
in 2016, as did fund-raising be-
tween April and June. Democrats
are nearing the record numbers
set in 2008 on both counts, even
though the marquee 2020 race, for
the Democratic presidential nomi-
nation, largely ended in March
with Joseph R. Biden Jr. as the
presumptive nominee.
Roughly 34 million Democrats
have already cast their ballots in
2020, and major states like New
York, New Jersey and Connecti-
cut have yet to report official re-
sults, meaning the number will
most likely be millions more. By
contrast, in 2016, just under 31 mil-
lion Democrats voted in a more
contested presidential primary
race; in 2008, more than 37 million
voted in the primaries.
The apparent energy in the
Democratic base could foreshad-
ow significant turnout in the No-
vember general election, even as
the coronavirus continues to
scramble the political process.
The trend is especially notable in
some traditionally Republican
states like Texas, Georgia and Ari-
zona, as well as Democratic-lean-
ing states that Republicans often
contest, like Virginia.
There is ample evidence of en-
thusiasm among the Republican
base, too. Despite President
Trump’s lack of a serious chal-
lenger within the party, more than
14 million people have voted in Re-
publican primaries, according to
data from The Associated Press.
That is nearing the 18 million bal-
lots cast in the contested 2012 Re-
publican primary and outpaces
turnout in 2004, the last time there
was a Republican incumbent. The
Trump campaign received
725,000 individual donations on-
line in the second quarter, which
campaign officials boasted was
rare in Republican politics.

As for the impetus of the energy

coursing through the Democratic

electorate, political analysts point

to the prospect of getting Mr.

Trump out of office as the core rea-

son for voter engagement.

“The intensity around ousting

Donald Trump, which we saw on

full display in 2018, has not waned

one bit,” said Amy Walter, the na-

tional editor of the nonpartisan

Cook Political Report. “That en-

thusiasm in coming out to vote is

saying, ‘I’m letting everyone

know that I am showing up now —

in a primary that’s over and in a

pandemic — to send a signal that I

am going to show up in Novem-

ber.’ ”

For Democrats, 20 states have

surpassed 2016 turnout levels,

and multiple states that haven’t

yet certified results are likely to

join them. Nine states have sur-

passed 2008 levels. On Tuesday,

Texas Democrats obliterated the

record for turnout in a Democratic

statewide runoff election, with an

unofficial tally of 955,735. The pre-

vious record, set in 2018, was

432,180.

Georgia, one of the few states to

mail ballot applications to all its

registered voters, saw nearly 1.

million people vote in its Demo-

cratic presidential and Senate pri-

mary in June, even though Sena-

tor Bernie Sanders of Vermont

had already dropped out of the

race. It was a 68 percent increase

in turnout from 2016, and a 20 per-

cent increase over 2008.

“One inference you can make is

that getting the absentee ballot

applications made it easier, and

more people decided to vote by

mail,” said Trey Hood, the director

of the Survey Research Center at

the School of Public and Interna-

tional Affairs at the University of

Georgia.

Mr. Hood said that about half of

the primary voters in Georgia this

year did not vote in the 2016 pri-

mary, and that around 50 percent

of ballots cast this year were ab-

sentee. In 2016, just around 2 per-

cent were absentee ballots.

Numerous studies have found

that voting by mail has not tradi-

tionally favored one party over

the other. But as the president

falsely denounces the process as

“corrupt,” Democrats around the

country are requesting ballots at a

far higher rate than Republicans

are.

In Pennsylvania, for example,

Democrats have requested more

mail-in ballots than Republicans

have in every single county in the

state. In Michigan, some support-

ers of the president burned absen-

tee-ballot applications in a sign of

protest.

The suburbs, even in tradition-

ally red states, are also seeing an

increase in Democratic turnout,

continuing a trend that began in

the 2018 midterms. In Texas, both

Denton and Collin Counties, tradi-

tional Republican strongholds

north of Dallas, saw the number of

Democrats voting in 2020 surpass

2008 levels and more than double

2016 levels.

In Virginia the suburbs wit-

nessed a similar surge, with

Loudoun County, just outside of

Washington, D.C., doubling its

2016 turnout. Nearby Fairfax and

Prince William Counties, two of

the largest in the state, saw a

roughly 70 percent increase over

2016.

A few states have seen a major

drop-off in turnout in 2020. While

some of that can be attributed to a

less competitive presidential pri-

mary, states that weren’t ad-

equately prepared for the pan-

demic were also deeply affected.

Illinois, which held its primary on

March 17, just as the coronavirus

crisis was beginning to take hold

in the United States, made few

preparations, forcing polling sta-

tions around Chicago to shutter at

the last minute because of a short-

age of poll workers. In previous

election years, turnout in the state

was around two million; this year

around 500,000 fewer votes were

cast.

The state with the biggest de-

crease, Ohio, changed its election

date multiple times because of the

pandemic, the result of a clash be-

tween the governor and state leg-

islature.

Some of the higher turnout in

Democratic primaries can also be

attributed to the decision by at

least six states, including Wash-

ington, Minnesota and Colorado,

to switch from holding caucuses to

more traditional primary elec-

tions. Primaries tend to be more

accessible for voters who might

not have time to caucus for hours

in a day.

Democrats up and down the

ballot are also setting records with

their fund-raising. After months

in which the Trump campaign’s

fund-raising numbers dwarfed

those of the Democratic primary

candidates, Mr. Biden outraised

Mr. Trump in June by $10 million.

That same dynamic is at play in

several Senate races. Amy Mc-

Grath, the Democratic nominee in

Kentucky running against Sena-

tor Mitch McConnell, the majority

leader, has already raised $41 mil-

lion, $17.4 million of which came in

the second quarter of 2020. Jamie

Harrison, the Democratic chal-

lenger to Senator Lindsey Gra-

ham in South Carolina, raised just

under $14 million in the second

quarter, while Mark Kelly, who is

running against Senator Martha

McSally in Arizona, raised $12.

million.

Such fund-raising numbers,

backed by a significant volume of

small-dollar donations (which ac-

counted for over 60 percent of

both Ms. McGrath’s and Mr. Har-

rison’s second-quarter haul), have

smashed previous records for this

point in the cycle. In the post-Citi-

zens United era, the previous

record-holder for second-quarter

fund-raising by a senator during a

presidential cycle was Elizabeth

Warren of Massachusetts, when

she brought in $8.6 million during

her race against Scott Brown in

2012.

Even record-setting Senate

candidates from 2018, like Beto

O’Rourke of Texas, have been sur-

passed by the top fund-raising

Democrats in 2020. Mr. O’Rourke

had raised around $10 million dur-

ing the second quarter of 2018,

while the state saw an 18 percent

increase in voting turnout that

year.

This cycle has also experienced

an uptick in out-of-state donations

fueling competitive Democratic

primaries, said Sheila Krumholz,

the executive director of the Cen-

ter for Responsive Politics.

The nationalization of dona-

tions, she noted, was amplified by

ActBlue, the Democrats’ widely

used and readily available fund-

raising software. When local races

turn into national causes, such as

ousting a loathed incumbent or

backing an insurgent challenger,

the ease of donating digitally

across state lines has significantly

increased cash flow.

“There are new and profound

factors or issues that voters are

considering in their political en-

gagement, and that includes in

their political donations,” Ms.

Krumholz said.

Ms. Walter, of the Cook Political

Report, noted that as politics has

become increasingly nationalized

in the Trump era, it’s often the can-

didates, rather than geography,

driving voter enthusiasm, espe-

cially among Democrats. “Who

you’re running against is almost

as important as where you’re run-

ning,” she said.

A poll worker counted provisional ballots for the New Jersey pri-
mary on July 7. The state has yet to report official results.

ERICA LEE FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES

Above, voters in Dallas for

primary runoffs last week.

Supporters of Amy McGrath,

running against Senator Mitch

McConnell in Kentucky. She

has raised $41 million.

NITASHIA JOHNSON FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES

BRETT CARLSEN/GETTY IMAGES

On Left, Rise in Voters,

Money and, Also, Hope

By NICK CORASANITI

and ISABELLA GRULLÓN PAZ

Joseph R. Biden Jr. announced a
sweeping new $775 billion invest-
ment in caregiving programs on
Tuesday, with a series of propos-
als covering care for small chil-
dren, older adults and family
members with disabilities. His
campaign hopes the plan will land
with particular resonance during
a pandemic that has severely af-
fected the caregiving needs of mil-
lions of American families.
The proposals, outlined in a
speech near his home in Dela-
ware, were the third of four eco-
nomic rollouts that Mr. Biden, the
former vice president and pre-
sumptive Democratic nominee, is
doing before the Democratic Na-
tional Convention next month. He
is seeking to blunt one of the few
areas of advantage — the econ-
omy — that President Trump
maintains even as Mr. Trump’s
overall standing has dipped.
“Families are squeezed emo-
tionally and financially,” Mr. Biden
said in the speech. “They need
help, but too often they can’t af-
ford it.”
Professional caregivers, he
added, “are too often underpaid,
unseen and undervalued.”
Mr. Biden’s proposals are in-
tended to appeal to voters who are
now more acutely aware of how
essential caregivers are, as the
health crisis has shuttered
schools — a source of child care
for many Americans — and lim-
ited the options to care for older
relatives who are more vulnerable
to the coronavirus.
But they are also aimed at the
caregivers themselves, promising
more jobs and higher pay. His
campaign estimated that the new

spending would create three mil-

lion new jobs in the next decade,

and even more after accounting

for people able to enter the work

force instead of serving as unpaid,

at-home caregivers.

Mr. Biden’s ideas are in line with

what other Democrats have pro-

posed and what researchers have

demonstrated could help working

families, but it is notable to make

caregiving a central issue in a

presidential campaign.

“Care has largely been ignored,

certainly in presidential elections,

so it’s really exciting to see spe-

cific plans that would really move

the needle,” said Taryn Morrissey,

who studies child and family poli-

cies at American University. “This

would change families’ finances.”

In a conference call outlining

the plan on Monday night, the Bi-

den campaign framed caregiving

help as an economic imperative to

keep the country competitive

globally, and to enable it to re-

cover from the economic crisis

brought on by the pandemic. The

United States is the only rich

country without paid family leave

and has no universal child care;

research has shown that labor

force participation has stalled be-

cause of that.

But advisers to Mr. Biden,

whose campaign has made empa-

thy a central component of his

2020 candidacy, also repeatedly

invoked the former vice presi-

dent’s own history as a single fa-

ther. Mr. Biden’s first wife and his

1-year-old daughter died in a car

accident in 1972, shortly before he

was first sworn into the United

States Senate. His two sons sur-

vived the accident.

In his speech, Mr. Biden re-

called the years after the accident

and other difficult periods in his

life, like when his son Beau Biden

had brain cancer.

“We know what it’s like,” Mr. Bi-

den said. “We know so many of

you are going through the same

thing without the kind of help I

had.”

To address elder care, the Biden

campaign announced proposals to

eliminate the waiting list for home

and community care under Med-

icaid, which has roughly 800,

people on it; provide fresh funding

to states and groups that explore

alternatives to institutional care;

and add 150,000 new community

health workers. The campaign

said that coronavirus outbreaks in

nursing homes had highlighted

the necessity of providing care for

aging adults at home.

For young children, Mr. Biden is

proposing to start with a bailout

for child care centers, many of

which are at risk of closing amid

the pandemic because they are fi-

nanced almost entirely by private

payments. Even before lock-

downs began, they operated on

very small profit margins.

Mr. Biden also proposed na-

tional pre-K for all children ages 3

and 4, and his campaign pointed to

research that has shown that such

programs help women work and

shrink racial and socioeconomic

achievement gaps.

For parents of younger chil-

dren, he proposed an $8,000 child

care tax credit per child, up to

$16,000, for families earning less

than $125,000. It would be refund-

able so parents who did not pay

much in taxes could still collect it.

Or families earning less than 1.

times the median income in their

state could choose subsidized

child care, so they would pay no

more than 7 percent of their in-

come. The lowest earners would

pay nothing.

The plan would address the

dearth of child care by providing

financing for the construction of

new child care facilities, including

at workplaces and in rural areas,

and expanding after-school and

summer options and care for peo-

ple who work nontraditional

hours.

Mr. Biden’s plan also calls for in-

creased pay for child care workers

— who are disproportionately

women and minorities — along

with health benefits, career train-

ing and the ability to unionize. On

average, preschool teachers in the

United States earn less than

$30,000 a year, while kindergarten

teachers earn over $50,000, ac-

cording to researchers at the Uni-

versity of California, Berkeley.

The plan would provide benefits

for people who care for family

members instead of working for

pay, an idea that has recently

gained support from both parties.

It would give unpaid caregivers a

$5,000 tax credit as well as Social

Security credits.

Though Mr. Biden had previ-

ously called for public pre-K, paid

family leave and elder care, this is

the most detail he has given about

what those plans would look like

and about additional ideas he has

for helping caregivers. During the

Democratic primary, Senators

Elizabeth Warren and Bernie

Sanders were at the forefront of

family policies, and each proposed

universal child care, beginning at

birth. Even now, Mr. Biden has not

gone that far. Other of the sena-

tors’ ideas, like raising preschool

teachers’ pay, are included in his

new proposals.

The Trump administration has

also proposed policies for items

like paid family leave and afford-

able child care, an effort led by the

president’s daughter Ivanka

Trump, who has framed the initia-

tives as economic ones. Politically,

family policies appeal to a group

that both parties are trying to

court, suburban women.

Yet very few family policies

have been put into place while Mr.

Trump has been in office, and the

ones that have, like an expanded

child tax credit and more money

for child care for low-income fam-

ilies, have been minimal and have

not reached all the families that

need help.

In response to the pandemic

caregiving crisis, Democrats have

introduced bills to provide more

parents with paid leave while

schools are closed and to invest

billions to save the child care in-

dustry, but most Republicans

have not supported them.

In general, Republicans have

resisted any caregiving policy

that would be paid for through a

tax increase, which most of the

Democratic plans would.

Mr. Biden’s campaign said the

newly proposed programs, some

of which would be operated with

state and local officials, would be

paid for by rolling back some

taxes on real estate investors with

incomes over $400,000, as well as

by increasing tax enforcement on

the wealthy.

In response, the Trump cam-

paign tried to draw attention to

the cost of Mr. Biden’s plan. “In-

stead of pro-job and pro-growth

policies, Biden is turning to an old

friend — tax hikes and big govern-

ment,” an email from the cam-

paign said.

Mr. Biden’s first economic ad-

dress was focused on reinvigorat-

ing manufacturing and strength-

ening “Buy American” rules; the

second was on building the infra-

structure of a new, greener econ-

omy; and the final one will be

about advancing “racial equity,”

the campaign has said.

Biden Announces $775 Billion Proposal to Assist Working Parents and Caregivers

In a speech on Tuesday, Joseph R. Biden Jr., said professional

caregivers “are too often underpaid, unseen and undervalued.”

KRISTON JAE BETHEL FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES

This article is by Shane Gold-
macher, Claire Cain Millerand
Thomas Kaplan.