The New York Times - USA (2020-07-22)

A4 WEDNESDAY, JULY 22, 2020

Tracking an Outbreak

N

The disturbingly large numbers of coronavirus cases reported every
day since the pandemic exploded may in fact be low — by a lot. A
study from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention found
that the number of infected people “far exceeds the number of re-
ported cases” in some sections of the country. The study said that
actual infection rates were up to 13 times higher.
The analysis, based on antibody tests and published online by
JAMA Internal Medicine, suggested that large numbers of people
who lacked symptoms and never sought treatment may have kept
the virus circulating in their communities. Even so, most people in
the study had not been touched by the virus, an important finding
for assessing so-called herd immunity, the level of exposure at which
the virus stops spreading.
The study indicated that even hard-hit New York City, where
23.3 percent of people had coronavirus antibodies in early May,
remained well below the infection level required for herd immunity.
Experts believe that roughly 60 percent of the population would
need to have been exposed to the coronavirus for a city or region to
reach herd immunity.
But most people in the 10 regions covered in the survey had not
been infected. In Utah, for example, the infection rate was just over
1 percent by early June. At about the same time, the rate was 2.
percent for Minneapolis-St. Paul and 3.6 percent for the Philadelphia
metropolitan area.
Another study released on Tuesday said that Covid-19 patients
are prone to blood clots — and that clotting problems may be much
more common among patients with the virus than among people
with other infectious diseases. The study looked at the medical
records of 3,334 patients in four hospitals affiliated with N.Y.U.
Langone Health in New York and found that clot-related problems
— including blockages in a vein or artery, strokes and heart attacks
— were mentioned 16 percent of the time. By comparison, during
the 2009 flu pandemic, blood clots were reported in 5.9 percent of
patients, according to the study, published in the journal JAMA.

Solo Briefing at White House

After saying on Monday that he wanted to revive the pandemic
briefings that he had called off in April, President Trump appeared,
by himself, at the lectern in the White House press room on Tuesday.
Mr. Trump, who has repeatedly declared that the virus would go
away, said the pandemic would “probably unfortunately get worse
before it gets better.” He added: “Something I don’t like saying, but
that’s the way it is. It’s what we have.”
He also endorsed wearing masks, pulling one out of his pocket.
“I have no problem with a mask,” he said. “I view it this way. Any-
thing that could potentially help” is worth trying.
The president’s decision to reinstate the briefings had appeared
to catch Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease
expert, unawares on Monday. He did not attend the briefing, al-
though the president said that Dr. Deborah L. Birx, the White House
coronavirus response coordinator, was “right outside.” About an
hour earlier, Dr. Fauci had said on CNN that “I was not invited, up to
this point.”
But there is one place Dr. Fauci is certain to be: Watching the
Washington Nationals on Thursday. He is to throw out the first pitch
before the Nationals play the Yankees in the first game of the pan-
demic-delayed baseball season. The team described him as a “Nats
superfan.” (His loyalty has shifted: In 1989 he said that he rooted for
the Yankees as a boy growing up in Brooklyn. “I was somewhat of a
sports outcast among my friends, who were all Brooklyn Dodgers
fans,” he said then.)

Stimulus Debates, Here and Abroad

Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany was the central figure in
shaping a compromise on a coronavirus stimulus package for the
European Union. But the consensus came at a public cost: The
rancorous bargaining exposed serious divisions within the E.U. The
talks were defined by shifting roles among members trying to elbow
their way to the forefront now that Britain has stopped taking part
in summits.

The $857 billion package was noteworthy for its calling on coun-
tries in the bloc to raise money by selling bonds collectively. Much of
that money would be distributed as grants that would not need to be
repaid by virus-ravaged countries like Italy. “Exceptional situations
require exceptional measures,” Ms. Merkel said at a news confer-
ence.
Across the English Channel, Britain announced pay raises for
900,000 public workers — 3.1 percent for teachers, 2.8 percent for
dentists and 2 to 2.5 percent for the police and the military. Rishi

Sunak, the chancellor of the Exchequer, said the additional money
was in recognition of “what we always knew — that our public sec-
tor workers make a vital contribution.” (Nurses and other National
Health Service staff members are not included in the deal, because
they negotiated a three-year pay increase in 2018.)
In Washington, talks on the next coronavirus relief package
moved to Capitol Hill, where Steven Mnuchin, the Treasury secre-
tary, and Mark Meadows, the White House chief of staff, spent hours
trying to iron out differences with Republicans and reach out to

Democrats. Sketching out what is expected to be a $1 trillion pack-
age, Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the majority leader,
called for another round of checks to families, along with $105 billion
in aid for schools. But he signaled that the package would not be
ready for consideration until early next month, after enhanced
unemployment benefits have lapsed.

By JAMES BARRON

Coronavirus Update

Coronavirus Update wraps up the day’s developments with infor-

mation from across the virus report.

Study Suggests Big Undercount in Cases

‘No Problem With a Mask,’ Says President

First Pitch From Fauci at Nationals Opener

New Coronavirus Cases Announced Daily in U.S.

THE NEW YORK TIMES

March 1 July 21
Note: Tuesday’s total is incomplete because some states report cases
after press time. Data is as of July 21, 2020, at 5 p.m. Eastern.
Sources: State and local health agencies; hospitals; C.D.C.

As of Tuesday evening, more than 3,893,700 people across every
state, plus Washington, D.C., and four U.S. territories, have tested
positive for the virus, according to a New York Times database.

New cases

7-day

average

60,

30,

Average daily cases per 100,000 people

in the past week

16 Few or

no cases

32 48

Hot Spots in the United States

THE NEW YORK TIMES

As of Tuesday evening, more than 3 , 893 ,7 00 people across every state, plus Washington, D.C., and four U.S. territories, have tested positive for the

coronavirus, according to a New York Times database. More than 1 41,7 00 people with the virus have died in the United States.

Nev.

Ga.

Miss.

Conn.

N.C.

Iowa

N.D.

Kan.

Te x a s

R.I.

Mass.

Ark.

Utah

Mont.

S.C.

Mich.

Calif.

Wis.

N.M.

Ill.

Fla.

Wyo.

N.Y.

Ind.

Minn.

Ore.

Maine

Alaska

Tenn.

Pa.

Md.

Ariz.

Wash.

N.H.

Hawaii

Mo.

Del.

W. Va.

N.J.

Idaho

D.C.

Ohio

Ky.

Okla.

La.

Ala.

Vt.

Neb.

S.D.

Minn.

Colo. Va.

Puerto Rico

Sources: State and local health agencies. The map shows the share ofpopulation with a new reported case over the last week. Parts of a county with a

population density lower than 10 people per square mile are not shaded. Data for Rhode Island is shown at the state level because county level data is

infrequently reported. Data is as of July 21, 2020, at 5 p.m., Eastern.

Facing one of the biggest finan-

cial crises in the history of the sub-

way, New York’s public trans-

portation agency is preparing

drastic measures to restore its fi-

nances that are likely to affect rid-

ers for years to come.

The measures the agency is

drafting include reducing service,

slashing the transit work force,

scrapping planned infrastructure

improvements, raising tolls be-

yond scheduled increases and

adding to its already record-high

debt, according to officials at the

Metropolitan Transportation Au-

thority, which runs the city’s sub-

way, buses and two commuter

rails.

With forecasts showing a stag-

gering budget shortfall of $16.

billion through 2024, transit lead-

ers now say that at least some of

these cuts are unavoidable as the

system copes with the devastat-

ing impact of the coronavirus pan-

demic. The agency’s two-year

budget for 2020-21 totaled $34.

billion.

“There have been financial cri-

ses before, but never one where

the deficits were measured in bil-

lions on top of billions on top of bil-

lions of dollars,” Patrick J. Foye,

the M.T.A. chairman, said in an in-

terview. “That’s why these unpal-

atable, unacceptable alternatives

have to be considered.”

He added: “We are going to

have to make hard choices no mat-

ter what happens here.”

Across the country, transit sys-

tems have been hit particularly

hard by the pandemic: Lock-

downs led to an over 90 percent

drop in ridership while the cost of

running service for essential

workers increased because of

stringent disinfection protocols.

In New York, transit officials

said that they would only resort to

severe cuts if they had no other

options.

They stressed that additional

emergency federal assistance

would help stave off some of these

reductions — part of a broader po-

litical strategy to pressure Wash-

ington to provide help as part of

the $3 trillion relief package being

debated in Congress this week.

Officials say it is not yet clear

how the authority will fare this

time. In March, the agency re-

ceived $3.8 billion — nearly its full

initial request — in the first fed-

eral emergency aid package.

But even with more federal aid,

cost-saving efforts and cuts that

have already been made, the au-

thority still faces a multibillion-

dollar budget hole.

Adding to the financial strain,

the M.T.A.’s plan to implement the

country’s first congestion pricing

system — a new revenue stream

for public transit — has stalled.

The plan would charge drivers

entering the busiest parts of Man-

hattan and could generate up to $

billion annually for the transit

agency.

But the project requires federal

approval and so far the Trump ad-

ministration has not provided the

necessary guidance on an envi-

ronmental review process. M.T.A.

officials say the project, which

was to begin as early as January,

faces at least a year of delays.

The agency’s increasingly

acute financial emergency is a

sharp reversal from the system’s

recent strides toward reliability

after years of disinvestment

plunged the subway into a state of

emergency in 2017.

Now the likelihood that the sys-

tem will be cut back risks under-

mining New York City’s chance of

an economic recovery at a time

when its unemployment rate has

climbed to over 20 percent.

“The M.T.A. is both a source of

the region’s economy and a reflec-

tion of the region’s economy,” said

Mitchell Moss, a professor of ur-

ban policy and planning at N.Y.U.

“This is the most severe crisis the

M.T.A. has ever faced because the

state is facing a crisis, the city is

facing a crisis.”

The grim financial forecast,

which transit officials are ex-

pected to present to the authori-

ty’s board on Wednesday, paints a

bleaker picture for public transit

than in past crises.

After the great recession in

2008, the M.T.A. eliminated two

subway lines and dozens of bus

routes to close a major budget

gap. And with the city on the brink

of bankruptcy in the 1970s, the

subway became a global symbol

of urban decay, with rampant

crime, graffiti-covered trains and

constant mechanical breakdowns.

When the pandemic enveloped

New York and the city shut down,

nearly all of the system’s operat-

ing revenue — which comes from

fares and tolls, taxes and subsi-

dies — vanished.

Even as New York has started

to slowly reopen, daily subway

ridership has plateaued at around

20 percent of its usual 5.5 million

passengers in recent weeks.

This year, the agency projects

$5.1 billion in lost fare and toll rev-

enue and $2.1 billion in losses from

dedicated taxes and subsidies. In

2021, it estimates those losses at

$3.9 billion from fares and tolls

and $1.9 billion for subsidies.

To fill the immediate operating

budget shortfall, transit officials

are lobbying for another $3.9 bil-

lion to be included in the next co-

ronavirus relief package. That ad-

ditional funding would cover the

M.T.A.’s operating deficit through

the end of the year.

“Without federal funding, the

M.T.A. can’t possibly get out of

this by being lean without reduc-

ing service in a way that would be

devastating for riders,” said

Rachael Fauss, a senior research

analyst at Reinvent Albany, a

watchdog group.

But even if the public transit

system does receive additional

federal assistance this year, the

agency will still have to slash

spending because of declines in

ridership and in dedicated tax rev-

enues, which are expected to drop

because of the weakness of the

city economy.

The M.T.A. board is expected on

Wednesday to review initial cost-

cutting measures that will provide

$1 billion in savings in 2021 by

trimming nonessential services,

including reducing overtime and

eliminating consulting contracts.

But these steps will only begin

to offset the pandemic’s financial

fallout. The authority’s board, con-

trolled by Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo,

will find deeper budget cuts in the

coming months — worrying advo-

cates who warn that riders may

have to shoulder the burden for

years.

“Turning to the old levers of fare

hikes and service cuts would send

the transit system into a death spi-

ral,” said Danny Pearlstein, a

spokesman for the Riders Alli-

ance, a grass-roots organization of

transit riders. “When a system be-

comes less functional because of

service cuts or less accessible be-

cause of fare hikes, people leave

it.”

To start, transit officials say the

authority will probably have to

take on more long-term debt and

shift funds to cover operating ex-

penses that had been set aside for

its $51 billion plan to modernize

the antiquated subway system.

The state has already given the

M.T.A. permission to divert funds

set aside for capital improve-

ments to operating costs over the

next two years and to issue bonds

so it can borrow up to $10 billion in

long-term debt and also borrow

up to $3.4 billion as part of a short-

term lending program set up by

the Federal Reserve.

If the financial situation deteri-

orates further, transit leaders may

have to consider furloughs or lay-

offs.

In a modest silver lining for rid-

ers, the precipitous decline in rid-

ership means that fare increases

that have not already been sched-

uled in the next two years are un-

likely since they would not

produce significant new revenue.

But as funds set aside for the

agency’s capital program are

plundered, the system will contin-

ue to be hobbled by aging equip-

ment — making it hard to improve

service and entice riders back

onto trains.

“Without constantly investing

in capital improvements and ex-

pansions, they will never rebuild

the ridership they lost or attract

new ridership through growth,”

said Nicole Gelinas, a senior fel-

low at the Manhattan Institute.

“Five years from now, there is a

good chance they will have still

crippled finances and lower rider-

ship but will have increased their

debt burden enormously.”

Still, transit leaders argue that

there are few alternatives — be-

yond increased federal assistance

— to stabilize the system in the

face of a catastrophic financial cri-

sis.

“The deficit the M.T.A. faces is

not one we can just cut our way

out of,” Mr. Foye said.

NEW YORK CITY

Drastic Cuts Threaten to Hobble the Transit System

Fewer riders means less revenue, and New York’s transit agency

is experiencing the worst of both worlds during a pandemic that

also requires costly increases in disinfection protocols.

PHOTOGRAPHS BY BRITTAINY NEWMAN/THE NEW YORK TIMES

By CHRISTINA GOLDBAUM