The EconomistJuly 25th 2020 Middle East & Africa 332 Nonetheless, the concerns raised by the
imfdid not disappear like their report.
Analysis by The Economistusing the Tan-
zanian central bank’s own numbers for the
most recent full fiscal year available (2018-
19) shows that tax revenue has shrunk in
real terms. Discrepancies such as these,
says Thorsten Beck of Cass Business
School, are “red signals” that gdp may have
been overestimated.
Public-sector wages and lending to the
private sector, which had both been grow-
ing at well over 10% earlier in the decade,
crept up by just 2% and 4% respectively
(see chart). The amount of money circulat-
ing, normally higher when the economy is
booming and people need cash, had grown
at 10% for several years earlier in the decade
but has edged up by only 2% in 2019.
The World Bank produces its own
growth numbers for Tanzania, a reflection
of its unease. These are lower than the gov-
ernment’s but still close to 6% in recent
years. The Bank says that the gaps between
gdp and other indicators such as tax rev-
enue have narrowed of late, which would
suggest that actual economic growth may
have been recovering.
Yet if one looks beyond the indicators
flagged by the imf last year, the picture is
still alarming. Foreign direct investment
has almost halved since 2013. Exports and
imports both fell between 2012 and 2018.
Imports of machinery and construction
equipment fell between 2015 and 2018, de-
spite claims of booming construction.
“The growth numbers are out of line with
almost everything else we are seeing out of
Tanzania,” says Justin Sandefur of the Cen-
tre for Global Development, a think-tank.
Tanzania’s recent growth ought to be ev-
ident in ordinary lives. When incomes rise,
people buy more beer; yet revenue for Tan-
zania’s biggest brewer fell in 2018 and 2019.
According to door-to-door surveys done in
2012 and 2018, the share of Tanzanians who
are extremely poor, 49%, did not change at
all over the period. That is almost unheard
of. And because Tanzania’s population is
growing, the number of extremely poor
peoplehasincreasedbyabout4.5m.
DiggingbyindependentwonksinTan-
zaniamightclearallthisup.Butchalleng-
ingthenumbersisrisky.In 2017 ZittoKab-
we, a prominent opposition mp, was
arrestedforquestioninggdp. In 2018 the
governmentmadeit a crimetodisputeoffi-
cialstatistics.Afteranoutcrythelawwas
toneddown,butitschillingeffectpersists.
MrMagufuliavoidssunlightinotherar-
eas,too.Tanzaniastoppedreportingonco-
vid-19onMay7th,whenithad 509 cases
and21 deaths.InMayaloneKenyaturned
100 Tanzaniansawayattheborderafter
findingtheywereinfectedwithcovid-19.
Nonetheless,onJune8thMrMagufulide-
claredTanzania“coronavirusfree”.
Thegovernmentsaystheeconomywill
growby5.5%in2020.Thatwouldprobably
makeTanzaniathebest-performingecon-
omyintheworld.Theimfpredictsa more
modest1.9%
Withanelectionlooming,thegovern-
ment’s economic record is facing fresh
scrutiny.BernardMembe,a formerforeign
ministerwhohasdefectedtotheopposi-
tion,saysgrowthis“exaggerated”and“in
factislessthan3%”.WhataboutTanzania’s
middle-incomestatus?“Averybigjoke,”
saysMrMembe. 7Bumps in the light
Tanzania, % change on a year earlierSources:IMF;BankofTanzania;
nationalstatistics;TheEconomist*Fiscalyears
†CalendaryearsOct2015,JohnMagufulielected
20100-10
1918171615142013GDP†Public-sector wages*Private-sector
credit*T
he ugandan health minister, Jane
Ruth Aceng, has won praise for her han-
dling of covid-19, which has yet to cause a
single reported death in her country. But
recently she was photographed in a crowd,
without a mask, in the district where she is
seeking election in six months, when
Uganda faces presidential, parliamentary
and local elections. Ms Aceng’s critics said
she was flouting the rules to chase votes,
which she denies.
The coming campaigns will take place
without the usual mass rallies, according
to covid-19 guidelines issued by the elec-
toral commission. That favours Yoweri
Museveni, the incumbent president, who
has won five contests, by fair means and
foul, since fighting his way to power in- Kizza Besigye, the main challenger in
the past four elections, has yet to say if he
will run again. But there is a new contend-
er: Robert Kyagulanyi, a singer known as
Bobi Wine, who is popular with young ur-
banites and has recently taken over a hith-
erto obscure party.
The pandemic complicates a long-
standing struggle over freedom of speech
and assembly. In January Mr Wine and his
supporters were arrested in a cloud of tear-
gas as they tried to hold meetings with vot-
ers. The police said the singer had fallen
foul of the draconian Public Order Manage-
ment Act, which has been used since 2013
to block gatherings the government does
not like. In March the constitutional court
struck down a key section of the act, giving
civil society a rare victory.
But the country was already entering a
covid-19 lockdown, which offered a com-
pelling new reason to clear the streets.
With churches, schools and football pitch-
es still closed, it would be a “total disaster”
to stage rallies, argues Mike Mukula, a big-
wig in the ruling National Resistance
Movement (nrm). That has not stopped
him holding indoor meetings with scores
of nrm activists. Opposition leaders say
the state is keener to control people than to
protect them. “If you continue provoking
Ugandans, Ugandans will rise up against
you,” warns Mr Wine.
Without public rallies, candidates will
rely on the media to promote their causes.
The press in Kampala, the capital, is lively.
But most Ugandans get their news from lo-
cal radio, which has learned to tread care-
fully. Maria Ledochowska Nnatabi, a 24-
year-old parliamentary candidate who
backs Mr Wine, says that talk-show moder-
ators steer her away from sensitive topics.
“If I go to the communities, I’m going to say
what I want to say openly,” she says. On ra-
dio “you’re already compromised.”
Many private broadcasters are owned
by politicians or business people with
links to the nrm, which state-owned sta-
tions also support. “Our majority share-
holder is the government so we find our
hands are somehow tied,” says Dickson
Nandinda of Radio West, a regional outlet.
“There are things we will not say.” Candi-
dates will have to pay 3m shillings ($813) to
appear on an hour-long talk-show, he adds.
That is as much as the average Ugandan
makes in a year.
Some opposition leaders want Mr Mu-
seveni to declare a state of emergency and
postpone elections. The old soldier is dis-
inclined to do so. His regime has built a ci-
vilian architecture over the hard founda-
tions of military power. Regular elections,
however flawed, reinforce his position as
“the elected general” who “stands between
the army and the population”, argues Ange-
lo Izama, a Ugandan analyst.
The most radical opposition figures,
such as Mr Besigye, say that Mr Museveni
has such a tight grip that an election alone
will never unseat him. Instead, they see the
polls as the catalyst for a political crisis, or
even a popular uprising. The deployment
of armed militia to enforce the covid-19
curfew looks to some like a dress rehearsal
for suppressing post-election protests. 7KAMPALA
The opposition is already crying foulUganda’s coming electionsPower unmasked