The Economist - USA (2020-07-25)

38 Britain The EconomistJuly 25th 2020

boombegan.ButonJuly22ndtheOfficefor

National Statistics revealed that just

640,000babieswereborninEnglandand

Walesin2019—evenfewerthanwhenFer-

rabyfretted.Thefertilityrate,whichmea-

suresbirthsperwoman,standsat1.65.Eng-

lishand Welshwomenarenownotably

lessfecundthanFrenchwomenandareap-

proachingtheGermanlevel(seechart).

A fallinthefertilityratedoesnotalways

meanchildrenaregoingoutoffashion.If

womenpostponepregnancy,thefertility

ratewillfallandthenrise,eventhough

womenenduphavingthesamenumberof

childrenintheend.Thathappenedinthe

early2000s.EnglishandWelshmothers

continuetogrowolder—themeanageof

childbirthisnowalmost31.BirteHarlev-

LamoftheRoyalCollegeofMidwivessays

thatisthemainreasonwhy,overthepast

tenyears,theproportionofbirthsthatbe-

ginwithaninductionora caesariansec-

tionhasrisenfrom31%to50%.

Butitincreasinglyseemsthatfamilies

are becoming smaller, not just more

stretched-out.If womenweremerelypost-

poningbabies,youwouldexpecttoseea

sharpdeclineinbirthstowomenintheir

20sanda slightriseamongwomenintheir

30s.Instead, forthepastfouryears the

birthrateamongwomenaged30-39has

fallen.A fewmorebabiesarebeingbornto

women 40 andover,butthesearestillrare,

accountingforlessthan5%ofbirths.Be-

forecovid-19hit,unemploymentinBritain

waslow;onlinedatinghasmadeit easierto

finda partner.Whythereticence?

A lack of what Ferraby called“zest”

couldbepartofit.Althoughtheminimum

wageroseby6%inApril,itmaybethat

working-classcouplesinparticularhave

lostalittleconfidenceinthefuturebe-

causejobshavebecomelessstable. Last

yeartwopoorregions,north-eastEngland

andWales,hadlowerfertilityratesthan

anywhereelse.TomasSobotkaoftheVien-

naInstituteof Demographysaysthatin

severalrichcountries,birthrateshavefall-

ensharplyamongwomenwhodonotgoto

university—whonormally have children

earlierinlife.

Youcouldalsoblameimmigrants,who

supplied29%ofthenewbabiesinEngland

andWaleslastyear.Asa rule,immigrants

havehigherbirthratesthannatives.But

thegapisclosing:since 2004 theimmi-

grantfertilityrateinEnglandand Wales

hasfallenfrom2.46to1.97.Germany’sfer-

tilityratehashelduppartlybecausethe

countryhastakeninlotsofpeoplefrom

Syria,wherebigfamiliesarenormal.Brit-

ainhasseenbig increasesin migration

fromlow-fertilitycountrieslikeItaly,Lith-

uaniaandRomania.

Fewplaceshavechangedasmuchasthe

EastEndofLondon.Intheearly2000s,im-

migrant-heavyboroughslikeHackneyand

TowerHamlets were Britain’snurseries,

withfertilityratesabovethenationalaver-

age.Bothboroughsnowhavebelow-aver-

agefertility,andtheproportionofbirthsto

immigrantmothersisfalling.Whatstarts

intheEastEndtendstospread. 7

Contractions

Births per woman of childbearing age

Sources:WorldBank;nationalstatistics

2.25

2.00

1.75

1.50

1.25

1.00

1917151311092007

England & Wales

Germany

France

T

ommy rowlands hasspentthe past

fewmonthsflittingbetweenLondon,

Paris,BeirutandLosAngeles.Inhishead,

thatis.Hehasbeenstuckathomesince

March,onfurloughfromhisjobasa maitre

d’ina Londonrestaurant.Thatmeanshe

hasfinallyhadtimetodevotetotheglobe-

trottingnovelhehadbeenchippingaway

atinsparemomentsforfouryears.Hefin-

ishedit insevenweeks.Aftertheobligatory

acknowledgmentofothers’sufferingdur-

ingthepandemic,heconfesses:“Onthe

whole,I’veenjoyedthisperiod.”

When Britons who have worked

throughout the covid-19 crisis think of

their9.4mfurloughedcompatriots,they

mightpicturesomeonelikeMrRowlands,

orperhapsthe25-year-oldYorkshireman

whoadmitsit hasbeen“likea three-month

gardenparty”.“Ican’tactuallybelieveI’m

beingpaidsometimes,”hesays,ina brief

pauseinhishecticschedule.

Butthefurloughscheme,underwhich

theTreasuryinitiallypaid80%ofworkers’

wagesup to a£2,500monthlycap,has

drawbacks.First,whenanemployerfur-

loughssomestaffbut keepsthereston

their usual hours, some in the former

groupbegintodoubttheirworth.“It’svery

hardnottofeeljudged,”saysa Londoner

who works in marketing and was fur-

loughedbeforemostofhiscolleagues.

Worseistheprolongedthreatofbeing

laidoff.TheBritishschemecontraststothe

approach in America, which has increased

out-of-work benefits but not paid compa-

nies to furlough people. America’s unem-

ployment rose to 15% before falling back to

11%; in Britain, the headline rate is 4%. Un-

ions praised the government for averting

mass lay-offs in March, but there are con-

cerns that furloughing is keeping zombie

companies alive and paying people whose

current positions will not be needed again.

As the scheme tapers off before ending in

October, redundancy is back on the cards.

For those who expect redundancy, the

scheme may be a financial help but a psy-

chological burden. A poll by YouGov in May

foundthatnearlytwo-thirds of furloughed

workers are worried about redundancy,

comparedwithabouta quarter of those

stillatwork.IanMartin, a consultant psy-

chiatrist,reportsa spike in anxiety and de-

pressionamongthefurloughed. “It sounds

such a gentle, benign arrangement,” he

says.“Butifyouthink of it as being sus-

pendedfromworkpending dismissal, it’s a

noman’slandofuncertainty.”

SeveralofDrMartin’s patients were ini-

tiallyhappytobepaidnot to work. But, as it

becameclearertheirjobs could be at risk, it

begantofeelmorelike “waiting for a ver-

dict”—which, hethinks, may be “scarier

thana single-eventtrauma of redundancy.

This lingering uncertainty is incredibly

stressful.” Norhaveworkers likely to be

laidoffbeengivenincentives to spend this

time productively. Government hints of

training or reskilling schemes came to

nothing,saysMikeHawking of the Joseph

RowntreeFoundation,a think-tank.

Millionsarewaiting to discover their

fate,unsurewhetherto put their feet up or

spend their days scrolling through job

sites.“SomedaysI think it’s sunny, I don’t

havetowork,I cangoto the park and read,”

saysa furloughedLondoner in the music

industry.“OtherdaysI think I won’t have a

jobinthefuture.Howdo I keep my career

goingwhenmyindustry might not exist in

thesameway?” 7

Whybeingpaidnottoworkisn’tthe

jollyitsounds

Lifeonfurlough

Holdon

That sinking feeling

2