The EconomistJuly 25th 2020 Special reportThe Midwest 112
1Wisconsin. The closest victory was that of
Tony Evers, an ex-teacher in Wisconsin,
who won even as Republicans kept the
state legislature.
In Wisconsin, watch especially the sub-
urbs of Milwaukee, notably the wealthy
and mostly white wowcounties—Wash-
ington, Ozaukee and Waukesha—where
Republicans stack up votes. In recent state
elections Republican margins of victory
have shrunk, which bodes ill for them.
Democrats may be moving in or indepen-
dents may be turning. Women, particularly
those with degrees, are queasy about Mr
Trump. His behaviour after the killing of
George Floyd put many off. Much Demo-
cratic effort will be trained on such places,
especially after the Democratic convention
is held in Milwaukee in August. Ben Wik-
ler, the head of Wisconsin’s Democrats,
says that there is no risk of complacency
this time round.
Could this year’s dramatic events help
their plans? By early July, all polls put Mr Bi-
den ahead of Mr Trump, suggesting Demo-
crats would make widespread gains in the
region. For the Senate, one hopeful—John
James, a rare Republican, African-Ameri-
can candidate, in Michigan—briefly looked
capable of bringing down a Democratic in-
cumbent, Gary Peters. But later Mr James
fell behind in the opinion polls.
Mr Biden may have some leeway. In a tighter race he might have
felt obliged to pick a running-mate from the Midwest, just as Mr
Trump did with Mike Pence, a former governor of Indiana. Candi-
dates could have included Gretchen Whitmer, governor of Michi-
gan, Tammy Duckworth, a senator from Illinois, or Tammy Bald-
win, one from Wisconsin. The region might yet gain its own
champion in the White House. 7voters picked Mr Obama as president but switched to Mr Trump,
are 50 clustered near the northern stretch of the Mississippi river,
in Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin. Illinois is immovably
Democratic, but any of the other three could quite possibly flip.
Back when the economy was in good shape, Mr Trump hoped to
win Minnesota’s ten electoral-college votes. He lost there in 2016
by just 1.5%, or 45,000 votes, even as he took 78 of its 87 counties.
The same rural-urban resentment that Ms Cramer tracked is clear
in the state. In once-Democratic strongholds, such as the Iron
Range mining district, Republicans have made big gains. Seen
from run-down towns like Eveleth, Democrats are out of touch, fo-
cusing on the environment and immigration, not on rural, blue-
collar interests. And race is undoubtedly also a factor. When Mr
Trump attacks non-white Democrats such as Ilhan Omar, a con-
gresswoman of Somali descent from Minneapolis, he hopes it res-
onates with small-town voters.
Polls suggest that Pennsylvania and Michigan are slipping
away from Mr Trump. Partly that is because Joe Biden, as the
Democratic nominee, is a powerful asset who appeals more than
Mrs Clinton did to rural folk, as well as firing up African-Ameri-
cans. He did dismally in the Iowa Democratic caucuses, coming a
limp fourth, but he will do better with the wider electorate, appeal-
ing to independents and even moderate Republicans. He launched
his campaign in a union hall in Pittsburgh, where his family has
ties. Beth Hansen, a Republican strategist, points out that his fa-
ther was in the car industry and calls the nominee “pragmatic,
low-key, commonsense”. That is gushing praise in the Midwest.
In the 2018 mid-terms, Democrats scooped several suburban
congressional seats, and even some exurban ones, that tradition-
ally go Republican. Lauren Underwood, who won a largely rural
district in Illinois for the first time, says she did it by focusing on
older women voters and health care. If she can hold her seat, the
Democrats can expect to retain the House. Democrats also re-
placed Republicans as governors in Illinois, Kansas, Michigan andSource:TheEconomist *AtJuly 14thCompetitivestates 167 votes
CA NY NJ IL VA MI NCAZOH GA TX IN
270 towinAL
AKCOIN
KSMAMNNJOKTXCTMOWVILNM ARCADEHIKYMDMSNYORTNUT
VADCWANESCIDMT NDSD
WYVTMELARIStates of play
Presidential election, win probability, 2020*, % Electoral votes
Joe Biden DonaldTrumpJoe Biden DonaldTrump102555AZFLGANCIA PAMINHOHWINVSafe
99+Very likely
85-99Likely
65-85Uncertain
50-65Likely
65-85Very likely
85-99Safe
99+WI FL IA TNW
heretworivers meet is a good spot for a city. For 600 years a
sizeable one existed where the Missouri joins the Mississip-
pi. By 1100, at the city’s peak, 20,000 residents may have lived
around it, as many as did in London. Today archaeologists call the
place Cahokia, after a native American group. These pre-Columbi-
ans gave up the city two centuries after it peaked. But you can still
explore 80 grass-covered mounds where Cahokia stood. The dis-
appearance of the Midwest’s first great city offers two lessons.
The first concerns the environment, the likeliest cause of Caho-
kia’s collapse. Deforestation and polluted waterways put strains
on nature. Getting enough food was hard. Researchers find evi-
dence of big floods. Such pressures are not so different from those
climate scientists warn of today. Predictions in the 1990s of warm-
er and wetter weather in the Midwest have proved accurate. In 2019Don’tbethe next Cahokia
Two lessons from a great Midwestern city you’ve never heard ofNature’s metropolis