12 Special reportThe Midwest The EconomistJuly 25th 2020
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Economist.com/specialreports2 oneoftheworstfloodsinsix decades drenched the region. Michi-
gan, Minnesota and Wisconsin each had the wettest year on record
in 2019. In Wisconsin, four in five of the wettest years have come in
the past decade.
Rick Cruse, at Iowa State University, calls climate change a
“monster” threat, mostly because of flooding. He suggests 10-12%
of Iowa’s soil capacity has been lost, costing farmers $1bn a year.
Last year’s deluge inundated cities like Davenport, Iowa. Overall
damage was some $6.2bn. Tony Evers, Wisconsin’s governor, com-
plains of “crazy weather happenings” and “100-year floods”. Lau-
ren Underwood, a congresswoman from Illinois, lists this as one
of voters’ main concerns. John Urbahns, who promotes develop-
ment in Fort Wayne, Indiana, describes “weird late-season snow-
storms”. The overfull Great Lakes, with one-fifth of the world’s
fresh surface water, are eroding beaches, roads, piers and sewers.
West of Iowa, the region could get too little rain in future. But
most places will get more. Hotter air carries moisture inland and
can suddenly unleash water. Temperature swings can cause rapid
snowmelt. In the 115 years to 2016, the Great Lakes area has warmed
by 0.9oC, slightly above the national rate. In the north, especially in
winter, change is faster. Two-thirds of Minnesota’s counties have
seen average mid-winter temperatures rise by more than 2oC. In
2018 the National Climate Assessment predicted 30% more spring
and summer rain by the century’s end.
Like the residents of Cahokia, presumably, most Midwestern-
ers can see change happening. Polls show that even many Repub-
licans accept that man-made climate change is real. “A day of ten-
inch rain makes a believer out of people,” says Mr Cruse. That does
not mean many people think it is time to act, for the Midwest is
less badly hurt than other regions. Farmers even see some benefit.
In Iowa, May 1st was long the unofficial start of planting, but mid-
April is now the norm. In South Dakota some are even trying to
grow corn. City-dwellers may welcome less bitterly cold winters.
Kate Collignon, a consultant, asks if the Midwest might be a haven.
If coastal places face worsening tornadoes, hurricanes and forest
fires, the American middle may look appealing. But that depends,
at least, on cities building better infrastructure—such as big, ex-
pensive storm drains, or stronger and higher bridges—to protect
themselves. Voters in the region also need to get behind a faster
switch to cleaner forms of energy.The second lesson from Cahokia is demographic. The simplest
explanation for its vanishing is that it didn’t import enough peo-
ple. Modern cities, with low fertility rates, can also dwindle if they
do not appeal to newcomers. Of Iowa’s 99 counties, says Art Cullen,
a journalist in Storm Lake, 67 have lost population in every census
since 1920. Gravity (population 187) could soon implode; Monowi
in Nebraska is down to a single resident, Elsie Eiler, who is 84. Even
as bigger places do well they rarely attract enough incomers, in-
stead draining the young and the better educated from other parts
of the Midwest.
As a whole, the region is stuck with low population growth. Six
of the 16 biggest cities in America in 1950 have lost more than half
their populations: Buffalo, Cleveland, Detroit, New Orleans, Pitts-
burgh and St Louis. But even successful places find people with
specific skills in short supply. The region needs frequent top-ups
of foreign talent. Without immigration, the Midwest’s demo-
graphic prospects would be dire. For its universities, health sys-
tems, farms and meat-packing plants, immigrants are crucial. In
Illinois, for example, 18% of all workers are foreign-born. Among
itworkers the rate climbs to 27%. For doctors and surgeons it is
32%. In Michigan and Ohio the numbers are high, too.
The Midwest used to be a more attractive gateway to immi-
grants. The foreign-born population has crept up, but by less than
on the coasts. In 1970, in only one state in the region, Illinois, were
more than 5% of residents foreign-born. By the latest census, in
2010, that had climbed to 14% in Illinois, 7% in Minnesota and 6%
in Michigan. Those figures are probably higher now. The region
was, until recently, exemplary in settling refugees. The mayor of
Fort Wayne, Indiana, talks of the many Burmese families there.
Dearborn, Michigan, is home to many Arab-Americans. Chicago
has all sorts, including Ghanaians, Congolese and Ethiopians. St
Cloud and the Twin Cities have many Somalis. Diversity has done
wonders for local cuisine and entrepreneurialism, small busi-
nesses and livelier town centres.
The biggest threat to the Midwest is that it turns away from oth-
ers. A misguided national policy under Mr Trump that chokes off
inflows of foreigners, while ending the resettlement of refugees,
could cost the region dear. The effects of covid-19 in stalling migra-
tion will make things worse. Together they threaten to make the
Midwest a place that is home to a dwindling, ageing popula-
tion—on a path not so different from Cahokia’s.
Leaders and voters should instead look for ways to open up.
Companies, universities and cities, especially, should be urging
national change. They need only look to booming Toronto to see
how higher immigration drives growth. The most successful
places are the most open. Grand Rapids wins by encouraging for-
eign investors and ideas. The universities of the Midwest need for-
eign students and staff, just as big companies seek talent from any-
where. Cities like Chicago, Minneapolis and Pittsburgh consider
themselves open, welcoming and diverse. Those are values that
have stood the Midwest well. They should do again. 7Paddling their own canoe