The Economist - USA (2020-07-25)

Economic data

Gross domestic product Consumer prices Unemployment Current-account Budget Interest rates Currency units

% change on year ago % change on year ago rate balance balance 10-yr gov't bonds change on per $ % change

latest quarter* 2020† latest 2020† % % of GDP, 2020† % of GDP, 2020† latest,% year ago, bp Jul 22nd on year ago

United States 0.3 Q1 -5.0 -5.3 0.6 Jun 0.7 11.1 Jun -1.7 -15.9 0.6 -145 -

China 3.2 Q2 54.6 1.4 2.5 Jun 3.7 3.8 Q2§ 0.7 -6.0 2.7 §§ -33.0 7.00 -1.7

Japan -1.7 Q1 -2.2 -5.2 0.1 Jun -0.1 2.9 May 2.9 -11.3 nil -8.0 107 0.6

Britain -1.7 Q1 -8.5 -9.0 0.6 Jun 0.7 3.9 Apr†† -2.2 -15.9 0.2 -63.0 0.79 1.3

Canada -0.9 Q1 -8.2 -5.6 0.7 Jun 0.5 12.3 Jun -3.1 -11.0 0.5 -98.0 1.34 -2.2

Euro area -3.1 Q1 -13.6 -8.4 0.3 Jun 0.4 7.4 May 2.1 -9.1 -0.5 -15.0 0.86 3.5

Austria -2.9 Q1 -11.6 -6.3 1.1 Jun 0.7 5.4 May 0.1 -7.6 -0.3 -16.0 0.86 3.5

Belgium -2.5 Q1 -13.6 -8.1 0.6 Jun 0.5 5.4 May -1.5 -8.7 -0.2 -18.0 0.86 3.5

France -5.0 Q1 -19.7 -10.4 0.2 Jun 0.4 8.1 May -0.8 -11.0 -0.1 -10.0 0.86 3.5

Germany -2.3 Q1 -8.6 -5.9 0.9 Jun 0.8 3.9 May 5.3 -7.2 -0.5 -15.0 0.86 3.5

Greece -1.2 Q1 -6.2 -7.5 -1.6 Jun -0.5 15.5 Apr -3.0 -6.5 1.2 -96.0 0.86 3.5

Italy -5.4 Q1 -19.6 -10.8 -0.2 Jun 0.1 7.8 May 2.0 -12.0 1.1 -55.0 0.86 3.5

Netherlands -0.2 Q1 -5.8 -6.0 1.6 Jun 1.3 3.8 Mar 4.3 -5.4 -0.4 -19.0 0.86 3.5

Spain -4.1 Q1 -19.3 -11.0 -0.3 Jun -0.2 14.5 May 1.4 -13.0 0.4 -1.0 0.86 3.5

Czech Republic -1.7 Q1 -12.8 -7.5 3.3 Jun 2.8 2.5 May‡ -1.4 -7.0 0.8 -59.0 22.8 -0.1

Denmark -0.3 Q1 -7.7 -4.0 0.3 Jun 0.3 5.6 May 5.2 -6.3 -0.4 -7.0 6.42 3.6

Norway 1.1 Q1 -6.0 -5.5 1.4 Jun 0.8 4.2 Apr‡‡ 1.4 -0.9 0.6 -83.0 9.12 -5.7

Poland 1.7 Q1 -1.6 -4.0 3.3 Jun 3.1 6.1 Jun§ -0.5 -9.4 1.3 -85.0 3.81 -0.5

Russia 1.6 Q1 na -6.1 3.2 Jun 3.5 6.2 Jun§ 1.5 -4.3 5.9 -147 71.1 -11.3

Sweden 0.4 Q1 0.5 -5.1 0.7 Jun 0.5 9.0 May§ 2.9 -4.4 -0.1 -12.0 8.85 6.3

Switzerland -1.3 Q1 -10.0 -6.0 -1.3 Jun -1.1 3.3 Jun 9.2 -6.3 -0.5 12.0 0.93 5.4

Turkey 4.5 Q1 na -5.2 12.6 Jun 11.6 12.8 Apr§ -2.4 -6.2 12.0 -417 6.85 -16.9

Australia 1.4 Q1 -1.2 -4.4 2.2 Q1 1.7 7.4 Jun -1.3 -7.6 0.9 -44.0 1.40 1.4

Hong Kong -8.9 Q1 -19.6 -3.3 0.7 Jun 1.4 6.2 Jun‡‡ 2.6 -5.3 0.5 -107 7.75 0.8

India 3.1 Q1 1.2 -5.8 6.1 Jun 3.4 11.0 Jun -0.4 -7.8 5.8 -61.0 74.8 -7.8

Indonesia 3.0 Q1 na 0.2 2.0 Jun 1.3 5.0 Q1§ -1.6 -6.6 6.9 -25.0 14,650 -4.8

Malaysia 0.7 Q1 na -5.1 -1.9 Jun -1.1 5.3 May§ 2.1 -7.6 2.7 -90.0 4.25 -3.3

Pakistan 0.5 2020** na -3.6 8.6 Jun 7.9 5.8 2018 -1.6 -10.2 8.8 ††† -533 167 -4.2

Philippines -0.2 Q1 -18.9 -3.7 2.5 Jun 1.9 17.7 Q2§ 1.3 -7.7 2.8 -212 49.4 3.4

Singapore -12.6 Q2 -41.2 -6.0 -0.8 May -0.2 2.4 Q1 19.1 -13.5 0.9 -107 1.38 -1.4

South Korea -3.0 Q2 -12.7 -2.1 nil Jun 0.4 4.3 Jun§ 2.5 -5.7 1.4 -12.0 1,195 -1.4

Taiwan 1.6 Q1 -3.6 -2.0 -0.8 Jun -0.7 4.0 Jun 11.9 -5.1 0.5 -22.0 29.4 5.7

Thailand -1.8 Q1 -8.5 -5.3 -1.6 Jun 0.2 1.0 Mar§ 3.4 -6.4 1.0 -69.0 31.6 -2.5

Argentina -5.4 Q1 -18.0 -12.0 42.8 Jun‡ 41.9 10.4 Q1§ 2.1 -8.4 na -464 71.8 -40.9

Brazil -0.3 Q1 -6.0 -7.5 2.1 Jun 2.6 12.9 May§‡‡ -2.4 -16.3 2.0 -350 5.10 -26.7

Chile 0.4 Q1 12.7 -6.1 2.6 Jun 2.4 11.2 May§‡‡ -2.6 -14.0 2.8 -26.0 767 -10.3

Colombia 0.4 Q1 -9.2 -7.7 2.2 Jun 2.3 21.4 May§ -4.9 -7.8 5.4 -38.0 3,623 -12.3

Mexico -1.4 Q1 -4.9 -9.7 3.3 Jun 3.1 3.3 Mar -1.4 -4.5 5.7 -176 22.2 -14.1

Peru -3.4 Q1 -19.5 -13.0 1.6 Jun 1.6 7.6 Mar§ -2.1 -11.5 3.8 -78.0 3.50 -6.0

Egypt 5.0 Q1 na 0.6 5.7 Jun 6.2 7.7 Q1§ -4.1 -10.6 na nil 16.0 3.9

Israel 0.4 Q1 -6.9 -4.8 -1.1 Jun -1.2 4.2 May 3.5 -10.9 0.6 -75.0 3.42 3.2

Saudi Arabia 0.3 2019 na -5.2 0.5 Jun 1.2 5.7 Q1 -5.6 -10.5 na nil 3.75 nil

South Africa -0.1 Q1 -2.0 -8.0 2.1 May 3.6 30.1 Q1§ -2.6 -16.0 9.2 118 16.4 -15.7

Source: Haver Analytics. *% change on previous quarter, annual rate. †The Economist Intelligence Unit estimate/forecast. §Not seasonally adjusted. ‡New series. **Year ending June. ††Latest 3 months. ‡‡3-month moving

average. §§5-year yield. †††Dollar-denominated bonds.

72 The EconomistJuly 25th 2020

Commodities

TheEconomist commodity-price index % change on

2015=100 Jul 14th Jul 21st* month year

DollarIndex

AllItems 115.5 115.7 5.7 -2.5

Food 90.7 91.7 0.9 -3.6

Industrials

All 138.6 138.2 8.8 -1.8

Non-foodagriculturals 97.3 94.4 1.6 -1.7

Metals 150.8 151.2 10.3 -1.8

SterlingIndex

Allitems 140.6 138.5 3.8 -4.9

EuroIndex

Allitems 112.3 111.7 4.2 -5.3

Gold

$ peroz 1,809.0 1,838.3 4.0 29.1

Brent

$ perbarrel 43.0 44.4 3.9 -29.8

Sources:Bloomberg; CME Group; Cotlook; Datastream from Refinitiv;

Fastmarkets;FT; ICCO; ICO; ISO; Live Rice Index; LME; NZ Wool

Services;Thompson Lloyd & Ewart; Urner Barry; WSJ. *Provisional.

Markets

% change on: % change on:

Index one Dec 31st index one Dec 31st

In local currency Jul 22nd week 2019 Jul 22nd week 2019

United States S&P 500 3,276.0 1.5 1.4

United States NAScomp 10,706.1 1.5 19.3

China Shanghai Comp 3,333.2 -0.8 9.3

China Shenzhen Comp 2,251.4 -0.5 30.7

Japan Nikkei 225 22,751.6 -0.8 -3.8

Japan Topix 1,573.0 -1.0 -8.6

Britain FTSE 100 6,207.1 -1.4 -17.7

Canada S&P TSX 16,171.1 0.7 -5.2

Euro area EURO STOXX 50 3,370.8 -0.2 -10.0

France CAC 40 5,037.1 -1.4 -15.7

Germany DAX* 13,104.3 1.3 -1.1

Italy FTSE/MIB 20,598.8 1.6 -12.4

Netherlands AEX 572.9 -0.8 -5.2

Spain IBEX 35 7,390.1 -1.3 -22.6

Poland WIG 52,146.0 2.2 -9.8

Russia RTS, $ terms 1,255.1 2.9 -19.0

Switzerland SMI 10,439.0 -0.2 -1.7

Tu r ke y BIST 118,079.9 0.3 3.2

Australia All Ord. 6,192.6 0.5 -9.0

Hong Kong Hang Seng 25,057.9 -1.7 -11.1

India BSE 37,871.5 5.0 -8.2

Indonesia IDX 5,110.2 0.7 -18.9

Malaysia KLSE 1,587.0 0.1 -0.1

Pakistan KSE 37,804.6 3.1 -7.2

Singapore STI 2,594.5 -2.1 -19.5

South Korea KOSPI 2,228.7 1.2 1.4

Taiwan TWI 12,473.3 2.2 4.0

Thailand SET 1,357.0 0.2 -14.1

Argentina MERV 48,634.1 7.8 16.7

Brazil BVSP 104,289.6 2.5 -9.8

Mexico IPC 37,447.1 2.3 -14.0

Egypt EGX 30 10,459.9 -1.5 -25.1

Israel TA-125 1,400.3 1.0 -13.4

Saudi Arabia Tadawul 7,427.9 0.1 -11.5

South Africa JSE AS 55,834.2 -0.2 -2.2

World, dev'd MSCI 2,327.8 1.3 -1.3

Emerging markets MSCI 1,077.8 1.1 -3.3

US corporate bonds, spread over Treasuries

Dec 31st

Basis points latest 2019

Investment grade 181 141

High-yield 633 449

Sources: Datastream from Refinitiv; Standard & Poor's Global Fixed

Income Research. *Total return index.

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