→Evenwithoutbiasedreferees,hometeamsstillwinmorethanawayteams→Withoutcrowds,refereespenalisehometeamsasmuchasaway teamsSource:21stClubCardsforfouls,awayteams’%oftotal,selectedEuropeanfootballleaguesShotsatgoal,hometeams’%oftotal→Thisisbecauseteamsplaybetterathome,creatingmorechancestoscoreLeaguepoints,hometeams’%oftotalGermany3rdPortugal 1stAustria 1st
Spain 1stGermany 1st
Germany 2ndItaly 1st
Spain 2ndDenmark 1stPoland 1stAverage of all leagues*1,534matchesfromMaytoJuly 2020 †5,294matchesfromAugust 2019 toMarch 2020Turkey 1stSincegamesresumed,
theshareofcardsreceived
byawayteamshasfallen
acrossEuropeItaly 2ndHungary 1stEngland 1stEngland 2ndCzech Rep 1stAwayadvantage← →HomeadvantageAwayadvantage← → Home advantageAwayadvantage← →Homeadvantage45455555656550Austria1stGermany1stEngland2ndItaly1stDenmark1stPortugal1stSpain2ndAverageofallleaguesSpain1stGermany3rdPoland1stTurkey1stItaly2ndEngland1stGermany2ndCzechRep1stHungary1st35 403550 60 7035 40 45 55 60 65 70Italy 2ndItaly 1st
Austria 1stPortugal 1stTurkey 1stGermany 3rdGermany 2ndSpain 2ndSpain 1stDenmark 1stGermany 1stAverage of all leaguesEngland 1stPoland 1stEngland 2ndHungary 1stCzech Rep 1st40 50 60 70smaller biggerHomeadvantageafterlockdownis:Afterlockdown* Before lockdown†The EconomistJuly 25th 2020 73L
ockdowns wereparticularly frustrat-
ing for football devotees, who had no
live matches to watch while stuck at home.
But the fans most pleased by the sport’s re-
turn may be statisticians. For them, empty
stadiums are not a cheerless last resort, but
rather a chance to tackle a great quandary:
why do travelling teams tend to lose?
Most studies have blamed referees for
trying to placate fans. In one experiment,
officials were shown recorded games and
asked how they would have ruled. They
were kinder to home sides when they could
hear baying fans than when the sound was
muted. Some analyses of live matches have
found more bias with denser crowds. Be-
fore this summer, few competitive fixtures
were played without fans. One study from
this May found just 160 cases since 2002. In
this small sample, the home team’s edge
vanished. Referees gave similar numbers
of cards for fouls to both sides, and visitors
won almost as often as hosts did.
This finding could easily be skewed by a
few clumsy tackles or flukey goals. But the
pandemic has made a larger study possible.
At our request 21st Club, a consultancy, has
analysed 1,534 matches played without
fans this year, spanning dozens of leagues.
Sure enough, officials no longer appear
biased. Although the pattern varies widely
by league, the total share of cards received
by home teams has risen from 46% before
lockdowns to 50% afterwards.
However, the lack of help from referees
has merely reduced home sides’ advantage,
rather than eliminating it. Football leagues
give teams three points for a win, one for a
draw and none for a loss. With crowds
watching, home teams gained 58% of
points; without them, hosts have still
earned 56%. In other words, three-quarters
of home overperformance remains intact.
So why have teams fared better at home,
even without biased officials? Since May,
hosts have taken 53% of shots at goal—less
than the 55% they took in full stadiums, but
enough to give them an edge.
The cause of this gap remains mysteri-
ous. In American sports, visitors have to
endure long trips between games. But tra-
vel times within European countries rarely
exceed a few hours. A more plausible rea-
son is that coaches still use conservative
line-ups and strategies when playing away,
even though hostile officials no longer un-
dermine their best players’ efforts. If that is
a factor, managers who excoriate referees
ought to consider their own failings, too. 7Empty stadiums have shrunk home
advantage, but not eliminated itHome comforts
Graphic detailCovid-19 and football