10 | New Scientist | 25 July 2020
News Coronavirus
BECOMING a covid-19-free zone
sounds like the ultimate goal
for any nation. Several countries
around the world have come
pretty close and, according to a
group of independent scientists,
the UK could join them. The group
says that, as an island nation,
the UK could introduce specific
measures over the next year and
follow in the footsteps of other
island success stories, such as
Iceland, Taiwan and New Zealand.
But closer scrutiny reveals that
no country has truly eliminated
the coronavirus from its shores
and that doing so would mean
making such large sacrifices in
other areas of public well-being
that it might not be worth it.
Earlier this month, Independent
SAGE – a self-appointed group
of scientists that provides advice
with the intention of guiding
UK government policy on the
coronavirus – published a report
recommending that the UK
aims for zero reported cases,
known as elimination, within
the next 12 months.
“Achieving elimination
would allow all social distancing
measures to be lifted, schools
to be fully open, the hospitality
and entertainment industries
to reopen fully, revitalisation
of the economy and a sense of
much needed normality for the
population,” the report said.
All the researchers New Scientist^
contacted agreed that elimination
is a worthy goal. Most say it is
theoretically possible for many
countries, including the UK,
to rid themselves of the virus
even without a vaccine.
Success would require tough
measures, however. The steps
suggested in the Independent
SAGE report are familiar ones.
They include boosting test,
trace and isolate programmes,
maintaining lockdown policiesand strictly restricting travel.
Such measures would be
a departure from the current
phased return to normal life
proposed by the UK government.
It recently advised people to
return to office working and will
soon offer discounts on restaurant
meals to encourage dining out.
Recent figures suggest England’s
test and trace programme is only
reaching about 80 per cent of
infected people’s contacts, andit is unclear how many of those
told to isolate are doing so.
Tight restrictions on travel
and border control would have
costs for business, tourism and
the broader economy.
The steps needed to move to
elimination would have other
costs. “It’s really difficult to know
[what the goal should be],” says
Kathleen O’Reilly at the LondonSchool of Hygiene & Tropical
Medicine. “It’s all about balancing
what’s feasible, what resources
you have available and what the
disadvantages are with putting
your resources into one disease.”
Even those countries that have
come the closest to reaching
elimination are now in a constant
battle to keep things that way.
New Zealand was tentatively
described as “virus free” early
in June, when all restrictions
except tight border controls were
lifted. But the country has been
reporting small numbers of new
cases of covid-19 on a near-daily
basis for the past month. As of
21 July, the Ministry of Health
reports 27 active cases in managed
isolation and quarantine. More
individuals there could have
symptomless infections, says Rajiv
Chowdhury at the University of
Cambridge. Scotland looked like
it was close to elimination at the
end of June, but it is still seeing
a number of new daily cases.
Elimination is worth aiming
for if all we want to do is put an
end to covid-19, says O’Reilly.But lockdown has already
significantly affected other areas
of healthcare provision. In the
UK, elective medical procedures
have been delayed, cancer
screening has been put on hold
and thousands of people have
avoided seeking care for serious
health issues, including for heart
attack symptoms.
The balance is an even greater
challenge in countries with more
limited resources. Those that were
well on the way to eliminating
polio and measles via widespread
vaccination efforts, for instance,
have had significant setbacks
due to the diversion of healthcare
resources during the coronavirus
pandemic. “Polio virus is now
spreading more, certainly in
some African populations and
in Pakistan,” says O’Reilly.
Given these difficulties,
some scientists are proposing an
alternative approach: eliminating
the coronavirus as a public healthPH
IL^ WAL
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R/GET
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IMAG
ESNew Zealand is the only
country where Parkrun
events have resumedEliminationJessica HamzelouIs wiping out the virus worth it?
The UK could eliminate coronavirus, scientists say, but it might not be the best approach
80%
Estimated proportion of infected
people’s contacts being reached
by contact tracers in England