PROJECTIONS BASED ON RESEARCH BY THE NEW YORK TIMES MAGAZINE AND PROPUBLICA, WITH SUPPORT FROM THE PULITZER CENTER. MODEL GRAPHICS AND ADDITIONAL DATA ANALYSIS BY MATTHEW CONLEN.000
Part of humanity that will live
in cities by 2050, according to
a World Bank estimate:67
AT THE U.S. BORDER
In the most extreme climate
scenarios, more than 30 million
migrants will head toward the U.S.
border over the next 30 years,
about 5 percent of them driven
solely by climate change. In the
scenario at right, the number of
people moving to the U.S. because
of climate alone is 500,000, but in
some scenarios it grows to as many
as one million.UNITED STATESCOLOMBIAMEXICOIt depends as much on political
and economic circumstances as it
does on the rise in temperature.
In this look ahead to 2050, the
United States, prioritizing
its own climate resilience, has
significantly hardened its borders.
Tens of millions of people remain
trapped in desertifying rural
areas, as millions more crowd into
already-overcrowded cities.EL SALVADORBIGGEST RISES
1 Mexico City
2 Guatemala City
3 Guadalajara
4 Tegucigalpa
5 Monterrey
6 Puebla
7 Tijuana
8 San José
9 San Salvador
10 JuárezLow development
High emissions
Closed borders5107MORE PEOPLEFEWER PEOPLE2030 2040 205060,00080,00040,00020,000ANNUAL NUMBER OF CLIMATE MIGRANTS1
5829
4361High development
High emissions
Open borders,
WHERE WILL CLIMATE
MIGRANTS GO?
PANAMAGUATEMALACOSTA RICANICARAGUAHONDURASBELIZE