The New York Times - USA (2020-07-28)

A8 Y THE NEW YORK TIMES, TUESDAY, JULY 28, 2020

Tracking an OutbreakU.S. Fallout

After July 31, millions of out-of-

work Americans will most likely

lose the $600 a week in additional

unemployment benefits that have

helped them weather the coro-

navirus pandemic.

Depending on income and

where someone lives, regular

benefits replace only a portion of

lost wages. We calculated how

much of each person’s previous in-

come is replaced by the unem-

ployment payments they receive.

It’s what economists call the re-

placement rate — the share of

someone’s normal income that un-

employment benefits make up.

When the $600 extra payments

expire, lower-income workers

who were benefiting the most

from the lifeline will feel its loss

most acutely.

Unemployment benefits are

typically meant to keep people

afloat while staying low enough to

spur them to find a job. But as the

economy hurtled into a recession

this year, and the pandemic has

kept many businesses closed or at

limited capacity, jobs have disap-

peared for many.

The extra unemployment bene-

fits passed by Congress this year

have injected billions into the

economy, and if those benefits

shrink, that missing boost could

cause widespread damage.

Lawmakers are negotiating a

new relief package, but chances

are slim that the additional lifeline

will be extended. The payments

have bitterly divided officials, and

many Republicans have argued

that the aid disincentivizes unem-

ployed people from looking for

jobs.

The idea of basing benefits on

workers’ previous wages, which is

central to the Republican plan,

isn’t new. It’s a factor in how states

determine the benefits they give

out, which is one reason benefits

may vary depending on the loca-

tion.

Millions of Unemployed Americans

May Lose a Major Lifeline

By ELLA KOEZE and GUILBERT GATES

Estimated weekly unemployment benefit

More than normal

Annual earnings

in thousands

$1,

$1,

$

0

$0 25 50 75 100

With

$

weekly benefit

U.S. AVERAGE

With the additional $600 a week in benefits, many lower-income
workers earned more on unemployment, on average, than they had in
their previous jobs.

Estimated weekly unemployment benefit

Cutting in half

$1,

Annual earnings

in thousands

$1,

$

0

$0 25 50 75 100

With

$

weekly benefit

Without

$

weekly benefit

If benefits returned to pre-pandemic levels, a worker who normally

earned $35,000 a year would see payments decrease from $944 weekly,

140% of his or her salary, to $344, about 51%. Someone who earned

$70,000 would see weekly payments decrease from $1,066 to $466.

$35,

worker

SHARE OF INCOME

REPLACED BY

BENEFITS

OVER 100%

50-100%

UNDER 50%

OVER 100%

UNDER 50%

$

$70,

worker

$1,

$235 $240 $247 $275 $275 $275 $316 $

$316 $320 $326 $332 $337 $337 $337 $

$337 $337 $337 $337 $337 $337 $337 $

$337 $337 $345 $350 $350 $350 $350 $

$350 $350 $359 $360 $365 $365 $370 $

$380 $380 $380 $389 $398 $404 $404 $

$417 $

Mississippi Arizona Louisiana Alabama Florida Tennessee Alaska Illinois

Indiana Missouri South Carolina Utah North Dakota California Connecticut Idaho

Minnesota New York North Carolina South Dakota Arkansas Massachusetts Nebraska Ohio

Rhode Island Washington Pennsylvania Montana Nevada New Hampshire Texas Virginia

Wisconsin Wyoming Michigan New Mexico Maryland Georgia West Virginia Kansas

Delaware Iowa Oklahoma Vermont Maine Colorado New Jersey Hawaii

Kentucky Oregon

Estimated payments in each state were calculated using an unemployment benefits calculator developed by researchers at the University of Chicago. The calculator uses state unemployment eligibility requirements

and rules to estimate the regular unemployment benefits of a worker without dependents, as of January 2020. The calculator may not capture every rule in every state, and estimated payments may not match an

individual’s actual payments. These estimates assume that annual income was earned over 52 40-hour weeks. Averages do not include Washington, D.C., or any territories.

Source: Peter Ganong, Pascal Noel, Peter Robertson and Joseph Vavra, University of Chicago THE NEW YORK TIMES

$50K 100K

$50K 100K

$50K 100K

$50K 100K

$50K 100K

$50K 100K

$50K 100K

Estimated weekly unemployment benefit

The 70% proposal

$1,

Annual earnings

in thousands

$1,

$

0

$0 25 50 75 100

With

$

weekly benefit

Republican

proposal

Without

$

weekly benefit

A leading Republican proposal calls for providing payments of up to $

that, when combined with normal state benefits, could cover 70%

percent of many recipients’ salaries.

$1,

1,

500

$1,

1,

500

$1,

1,

500

$1,

1,

500

$1,

1,

500

$1,

1,

500

$1,

1,

500

What Happens if the $600 Pandemic Benefit Disappears

How Payouts Will Shift With No Pandemic Benefit, by State

States are ranked by the weekly unemployment benefit a person who made $35,000 a year would receive, without the extra $600,

from the lowest (Mississippi at $235 a week) to the highest (Oregon at $438 per week).

With extra $

weekly benefit

$

$

OVER 100%

UNDER 50%