The New York Times - USA (2020-07-31)

A10 Y THE NEW YORK TIMES, FRIDAY, JULY 31, 2020

Tracking an Outbreak The Economy and the Republicans

The death on Thursday of Her-

man Cain, attributed to the coro-

navirus, has confronted President

Trump and other Republicans

with the reality of the pandemic as

it hit closer to home than ever be-

fore, claiming a prominent ally of

Mr. Trump, one whose frequently

dismissive attitude about health

precautions reflected the hands-

off inconsistency of party leaders.

Mr. Cain, a former business ex-

ecutive and candidate for the Re-

publican presidential nomination

in 2012, had an irreverent, con-

frontational style that mirrored

the president’s own brand of con-

trarian politics. In his more recent

role as a public face for the presi-

dent’s re-election campaign, he

became an emblem of Trump-sup-

porting, mask-defiant science

skeptics, openly if not ag-

gressively disdainful of public

health officials who warned

Americans to avoid large crowds,

cover their faces and do as much

as possible to limit contact with

others.

His view was shared by many

conservatives, who have applied a

hard-nosed, culture war mentality

to the virus, the most serious pub-

lic health crisis in a century.

Mr. Trump wrote in praise of Mr.

Cain on Twitter on Thursday, call-

ing him “a Powerful Voice of Free-

dom and all that is good.”

But Mr. Cain’s death showed

how ill-suited that mind-set is to

the country’s current predica-

ment. More than 150,000 Ameri-

cans have died in a pandemic that

is ravaging parts of the country

where conservative leaders long

resisted taking steps that have

slowed the virus elsewhere, such

as mask mandates and stay-at-

home orders.

Those include places like Tulsa,

Okla., where Mr. Cain attended a

Trump campaign rally in June and

showed his disregard for safety

precautions on social media

shortly before receiving a diagno-

sis for the virus.

With a uniformity that has de-

fied rising death tolls in their own

backyards, Republicans at the

federal, state and local levels have

adopted a similar tone of skepti-

cism and defiance, rejecting the

advice of public health officials

and deferring instead to princi-

ples they said were equally impor-

tant: conservative values of eco-

nomic freedom and personal lib-

erty.

From Arizona to Texas, as infec-

tion rates soared and hospital

beds filled up, Republican gover-

nors stood in the way of local gov-

ernments that wanted to do more.

They overruled city mask man-

dates, arguing that it amounted to

a form of government overreach.

They said that requiring busi-

nesses to close or limit their ca-

pacity would strangle the econ-

omy and save few lives. They ac-

cused the news media and politi-

cal opponents of exaggerating the

risks to hurt the president’s

chances for re-election.

They scorned the experts and

mocked those who heeded the

government’s warnings. Repre-

sentative Matt Gaetz of Florida, a

close ally and vigorous defender

of the president, walked around

the Capitol in March wearing a

Hazmat-style gas mask as he pre-

pared to vote on coronavirus relief

legislation.

The governor of Oklahoma,

Kevin Stitt, posted a picture of

himself eating dinner with his

family at a crowded restaurant a

few days after the World Health

Organization formally declared a

pandemic. “It’s packed tonight!”

his caption read.

And this month in Missouri,

Gov. Mike Parson scoffed at the

idea of a mask mandate, telling a

cheering crowd of supporters,

“You don’t need government to

tell you to wear a dang mask.”

Yet the virus more than occa-

sionally reminded them that it

strikes people of all political

stripes indiscriminately.

After his mask stunt, Mr. Gaetz

learned that he might have been

exposed to someone who was in-

fected and attended the Conserva-

tive Political Action Conference.

He said he would enter quaran-

tine, and he did not end up having

the virus. Mr. Stitt tested positive

for the virus this month, the first

governor in the country to do so.

He continues to resist pressure to

issue a mask order, calling it “a

personal preference.”

And this week, adding to the list

of people with direct access to the

president who have tested pos-

itive was Robert C. O’Brien, the

national security adviser. Others

include Kimberly Guilfoyle, a for-

mer Fox News commentator who

is dating Donald Trump Jr. and is

helping lead the Trump cam-

paign’s fund-raising efforts.

Among some conservative de-

fenders of the president, there is a

sense that complaints about

masks and other mandates as a

threat to personal freedom are

overblown.

Grover Norquist, a conserva-

tive activist who lobbies for lower

taxes and regulations and has

served on the board of the Na-

tional Rifle Association, said that

using Mr. Cain’s death to attack

Republicans “is going two steps

too far.” But he added, “There’s a

difference between not being ex-

cited about being told what to do”

and refusing to do it altogether.

“But on something like this, when

you’re out in public, you should

wear a mask because it’s not

about you.”

Yet there have been few indica-

tions that the spate of coronavirus

cases among Republicans is lead-

ing to any kind of major reckoning

in the party. After Representative

Louie Gohmert of Texas tested

positive this week, he blamed his

diagnosis on wearing a mask.

Mr. Trump, who has spoken of

being rattled by the death of an old

friend who contracted the virus,

has been photographed only

rarely with a mask on and has re-

peatedly said he does not consider

wearing one the appropriate step

for him. He has allowed, however,

that he is supportive of mask-

wearing by others.

The visuals that emerged from

the White House from the begin-

ning of the pandemic suggested

an attitude that was, at best, not

overly cautious.

Evan McMullin, who ran

against Mr. Trump as a third-

party candidate in 2016, wrote on

Twitter that Mr. Cain was “the first

senior casualty of the science de-

nial Trump cult.”

In an interview, Mr. McMullin

said he had little hope this was a

wake-up call. “I wish that was the

case,” he said. “Many voters who

support the president live in a to-

tally different, alternate informa-

tion environment in which the

news of Herman Cain’s death —

his visit to the Trump rally, his de-

cision to not wear a mask — won’t

reach them.”

Mr. Cain was eager to display

his disregard for the experts and

their warnings. Before the Trump

rally in Tulsa, which local public

health officials had urged the cam-

paign to postpone, Mr. Cain urged

people to “Ignore the outrage”

and to defy “the left-wing sham-

ing!”

Mr. Trump did at one point re-

schedule the rally, but only after

an outpouring of anger that it had

been scheduled for the day of

Juneteenth, the holiday commem-

orating the emancipation of

slaves.

When the rally went forward on

June 20, Mr. Cain, one of the most

prominent African-American

Trump supporters and a member

of his Black Voices for Trump co-

alition, posed for a photo with

other Black attendees. None, in-

cluding him, wore masks.

A few hours before the event,

the campaign had disclosed that

six Trump campaign staff mem-

bers who had been working on the

rally had tested positive for the co-

ronavirus during a routine screen-

ing.

Mr. Cain tested positive on June

29. On July 2, his staff announced
    that he had been hospitalized.
    Weighing in on the no-mask policy
    for a Trump rally planned at
    Mount Rushmore on July 3, Mr.
    Cain’s Twitter feed was approv-
    ing: “PEOPLE ARE FED UP!”

DEATH OF A TRUMP ALLY

Will High-Profile Casualty

Change G.O.P.’s Attitude?

President Trump at a campaign rally last month in Tulsa, Okla.,

where few people wore masks. Herman Cain was in attendance.

DOUG MILLS/THE NEW YORK TIMES

By JEREMY W. PETERS

perienced a strong rebound,

buoyed by low interest rates.

Many economists, however,

caution that spending could fall

further if Congress reduces or

eliminates aid to households and

businesses. And it would add to

the stress on the unemployed,

who are facing the expiration of

extra jobless benefits at a time

when the virus remains prevalent

and jobs remain scarce.

Louise Francis had worked as a

banquet cook at the Sheraton Ho-

tel in New Orleans for nearly two

decades when she was furloughed

last spring. It took three months of

effort to get her first unemploy-

ment check, and she relied on her

adult daughters for help in the

meantime. But when she began

receiving the money, the $

weekly federal supplement to reg-

ular state benefits allowed her to

find some stability. “With the

$600, you could see your way a lit-

tle bit,” Ms. Francis said. “You

could feel a little more comfort-

able. You could pay three or four

bills and not feel so far behind.”

With the supplement at an end

and no congressional consensus

on replacing it, Ms. Francis, 59,

isn’t sure what she will do. Her

age, combined with her diabetes

and high blood pressure, puts her

at high risk of severe illness if she

contracts the coronavirus, which

makes her reluctant to take any

job that puts her into face-to-face

contact with the public, especially

with cases surging in Louisiana.

Ms. Francis’s husband is re-

tired, leaving her as the family’s

breadwinner, and she will have to

get by on $247 a week in state

benefits.

“If they take that $600 from us,

how am I supposed to be able to

continue paying my bills?” she

said. “You still have to eat, to pay

insurance. If they take it away,

they’re going to push us back into

poverty.”

we’re closed — we’re kind of in

this yo-yo here in California,” Ms.

Cilurzo said.

The G.D.P. report shows the se-

verity of the temporary slowdown

and hints at evidence of more last-

ing damage. Consumer spending

fell 10.1 percent, led by a near-total

collapse in spending on restau-

rant meals, recreational activities

and other services. Even health

care spending fell, as patients can-

celed elective procedures and de-

layed routine care.

Businesses, too, pulled back

sharply on their investments,

which Ms. Sinclair said was a wor-

rying sign because it suggested

they do not expect a rapid recov-

ery in demand. And trade — both

imports and exports — plunged,

reflecting the global nature of the

pandemic.

There were glimmers of opti-

mism. Spending on goods fell a

modest 3 percent, and some quar-

antine-friendly categories had in-

creases. And while residential

construction slumped in the sec-

ond quarter, more recent data sug-

gests the housing market has ex-

modern economic statistics.
Economists and epidemiolo-
gists alike describe the U.S. failure
to control the virus during the ini-
tial shutdown as a missed oppor-
tunity. The government’s efforts
at financial support were largely
successful: After plummeting in
March and April, retail sales rose
in May and June as stimulus pay-
ments and a $600 weekly federal
supplement to unemployment
benefits began flowing into con-
sumers’ bank accounts. Loans
made under the Paycheck Protec-
tion Program allowed small busi-
nesses to begin bringing back fur-
loughed workers.
The wave of evictions and fore-
closures that many economists
predicted early in the recession
largely failed to materialize. But
those programs have expired or
are about to do so. And efforts to
extend them have been delayed in
Congress by disagreements — be-
tween the parties, and among Re-
publicans — about how and how
much to spend.
“The lesson from the early pol-
icy experiments is that it is possi-
ble to support the income of peo-
ple and to offset those financial
constraints,” said Tara Sinclair, a
George Washington University
economist and a senior fellow at
the Indeed Hiring Lab. “But now
as of today, we’re not going to have
that anymore.”
The up-and-down nature of the
recovery is shown by Russian
River Brewing Company in Sono-
ma County, Calif. Before the pan-
demic, half the company’s reve-
nue came from retail sales: food
and drink at its two brew pubs,
tours and tastings at the brewery
itself, in-person purchases of bot-
tled beer. When California ordered

restaurants to shut down in mid-

March, all of that revenue disap-

peared.

“We were panicking for 48

hours,” said Natalie Cilurzo, who

owns Russian River with her hus-

band, Vinnie.

Once the panic passed, the Cil-

urzos began finding ways to plug

the hole. With restaurants shut

down, grocery-store sales surged,

and online ordering proved to be a

hit. A loan through the Paycheck

Protection Program helped cover

employee salaries and other ex-

penses. And in early June, Rus-

sian River was allowed to reopen

its brew pubs.

But it has been a partial and un-

even rebound. Revenues are back

more or less to normal levels, but

profits are still down because mar-

gins are lower for grocery-store

sales. The company has brought

back most of its furloughed work-

ers, but it has permanently laid off

20 percent of its staff. And one of

its locations had to close again

when California reimposed re-

strictions on indoor dining. “We’re

open, we’re closed, we’re open,

Dave Lach, 61, waiting for help with an unemployment claim last week in Tulsa, Okla. Some 30 million people are getting jobless aid.

JOSEPH RUSHMORE FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES

G.D.P. PLUMMETS

Second-Quarter Contraction Sets Grim Record

From Page A

With the $600 bonus in federal aid ending, Louise Francis of

New Orleans will have to get by on $247 a week in state benefits.

L. KASIMU HARRIS FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES

Nelson D. Schwartz contributed re-
porting.

WASHINGTON — The Senate
on Thursday dissolved into parti-
san bickering over a sweeping
economic stabilization package,
clashing over dueling proposals
but failing to reach an agreement
to prevent the expiration on Fri-
day of jobless aid that tens of mil-
lions of Americans have depended
on for months.
Senate Republicans, on largely
party lines, ultimately forced the
chamber to begin moving forward
with a continuation of the unem-
ployment benefits at a much lower
rate, but it was mainly a tactic to
compel Democrats, who support
maintaining the payments at $
per week, to go on the record op-
posing an extension. There was no
agreement on a way forward.
The bitter impasse over any
form of coronavirus relief per-
sisted despite news the United
States economy wiped away
nearly five years of growth in the
second quarter of 2020, with the
tally of new claims for state unem-
ployment benefits exceeding one
million for the 19th consecutive
week. With several programs that
have staved off a wave of evic-
tions, foreclosures and layoffs ei-
ther expired or set to end in days,
economists warn that a lapse
could wreak further havoc on an
already shuddering economy.
“I’m not very optimistic that we

will have any kind of an agree-

ment on a comprehensive bill in

the near future,” Mark Meadows,

the White House chief of staff, said

before a meeting Thursday

evening on Capitol Hill with top

Democratic leaders and Treasury

Secretary Steven Mnuchin. “I’m

not even optimistic about next

week.”

Mr. Meadows indicated that he

and Mr. Mnuchin, the lead negoti-

ators for the White House, would

continue to press Speaker Nancy

Pelosi of California and Senator

Chuck Schumer of New York, the

minority leader, to agree to a nar-

row measure that would continue

the unemployment benefits and

revive an expired federal morato-

rium on evictions. But Democrats

have rejected the idea, saying that

would sap momentum for other

critically needed aid.

Some Republicans have also

panned the prospect of leaving

other provisions for later.

“There’s certain aspects that I

think have to be in there,” said

Senator Susan Collins, Republi-

can of Maine, before ticking off a

number of provisions, such as

school funding, assistance for

small businesses and money for

testing. “This is what happens

when you start going through the

bill; there’s so many priorities

that simply have to receive fund-

ing in order for us to help min-

imize the impact of the virus.”

But many Republicans are

wary of any additional spending

to stabilize the economy, saying

the nearly $3 trillion in cumulative

relief measures enacted in quick

succession in the spring had

swollen the deficit.

Faced with significant pressure

to prevent the expiration of the

unemployment insurance benefit,

Republicans worked feverishly to

coalesce around a stopgap bill

that could extend it, though most

proposals unveiled this week

would slash the aid and present

overwhelmed state systems with

a difficult switch that experts say

is likely to disadvantage lower-

wage workers.

One such proposal, which Sena-

tors Ron Johnson of Wisconsin

and Mike Braun of Indiana tried to

push across the Senate floor on

Thursday, would have continued

the extra jobless aid payments

through the end of the year, but

slashed the payments to $200 a

week from $600 or allow the bene-

fit to replace two-thirds of a work-

er’s prior income.

Mr. Meadows said President

Trump would support a flat, one-

week extension of the $600 benefit

in order to buy lawmakers time to

negotiate a longer agreement. But

Democrats rejected an attempt by

Senator Martha McSally, Republi-

can of Arizona, to win approval of

such an extension, with Mr. Schu-

mer dismissing the effort as “a

stunt” on the Senate floor.

Mr. Schumer spent a portion of

his day on the Senate floor, swat-

ting last-ditch attempts by Repub-

licans to push through short ex-

tensions of the jobless aid and to

try to pin the blame on Democrats

for blocking them. He responded

with a futile and politically loaded

tactic of his own: an attempt to

win approval of the $3 trillion

stimulus package House Demo-

crats passed in May. Republicans

blocked that as well, with Senator

Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the

majority leader, deriding it as “a

totally unserious proposal.”

“The House speaker moves the

goal posts while the Democratic

leader hides the football,” said Mr.

McConnell, accusing Democrats

of blocking discussions among

rank-and-file lawmakers. “They

won’t engage when the adminis-

tration tries to discuss our com-

prehensive plan. They won’t en-

gage when the administration

floats a narrower proposal. They

basically won’t engage, period.”

Comparing negotiations with

Republicans to “trying to nail

Jell-O to the wall,” Mr. Schumer

noted that Mr. McConnell, whose

conference remained divided over

another relief package, was nota-

bly absent from the daily negotia-

tions with administration officials

in Ms. Pelosi’s Capitol Hill suite.

The time crunch, he said, came be-

cause Republicans had “dithered

for months” and still had yet to

reach agreement on the $1 trillion

proposal they put forward on

Monday.

“Get in the room and negotiate

a real deal,” Mr. Schumer said.

“And stop doing stunts that simply

are political, get-it-off-my-back,

that you know cannot pass.”

FEDERAL JOBLESS BENEFITS

Senate Fails to Agree on Extension of $600 Weekly Aid

By EMILY COCHRANE

Luke Broadwater and Aishvarya
Kavi contributed reporting.

BD