The New York Times - USA (2020-07-31)

A8 Y THE NEW YORK TIMES, FRIDAY, JULY 31, 2020

Tracking an Outbreak The 2020 Vote

President Trump, who is trail-
ing badly in polling of the race
for the White House, suggested
on Thursday that the Nov. 3
general election be delayed “until
people can properly, securely and
safely vote.” Even for him, float-
ing the idea of postponing the
election was an extraordinary
breach of presidential decorum.
But the president does not
have the authority to move the
date of a federal election. And
Mr. Trump’s other claim on
Thursday, that widespread mail-
in voting would make the elec-
tion “inaccurate and fraudulent,”
is false.
Here are answers to some key
questions about holding elections
in a crisis:

Can a president’s executive order
cancel or delay an election?
No.

Why not?
Article II of the Constitution
empowers Congress to choose
the timing of the general elec-
tion. An 1845 federal law fixed
the date as the Tuesday after the
first Monday in November.
It would take a change in
federal law to move that date.
That would mean legislation

enacted by Congress, signed by

the president and subject to

challenge in the courts.

How likely is it that the November

election will be postponed?

Did we mention that the House

of Representatives, which is

controlled by Democrats; the

Senate, which is controlled by

Republicans; and President

Trump would all have to approve

such legislation?

To call that unlikely would be

an understatement.

Even if all of that happened,

there would not be much flexibil-

ity in choosing an alternate elec-

tion date: The Constitution man-

dates that the new Congress

must be sworn in on Jan. 3, and

that the new president’s term

must begin on Jan. 20. Those

dates cannot be changed by the

passage of normal legislation.

Marc Elias, the prominent

Democratic election lawyer, on

Thursday knocked down the idea

that Mr. Trump could move the

election on his own.

Didn’t many states postpone their

primary elections this year?

Yes: In response to the coro-

navirus pandemic, sixteen states

and two territories either pushed

back their presidential primaries

or extended deadlines for voting

by mail.

States have broad autonomy to

define the timing and procedures

for primary elections. The exact

process for setting primary dates

varies from state to state.

For example, in Louisiana,

state law allows the governor to

reschedule an election because of

an emergency, so long as the

secretary of state has certified

that an emergency exists. In

March, Gov. John Bel Edwards

and Secretary of State R. Kyle

Ardoin did just that. (In fact,

they later postponed the primary

election for a second time, buy-

ing more time for the state to

prepare to hold its vote amid the

pandemic.)

Have federal officials considered

moving a general election before?

It was reported in 2004 that

some Bush administration offi-

cials had discussed putting in

place a method of postponing a

federal election in the event of a

terrorist attack. But that idea

fizzled quickly, and Condoleezza

Rice, then the national security

adviser, said that the United

States had held “elections in this

country when we were at war,

even when we were in civil war.

And we should have the elections

on time.”

What about the procedures for

voting in the November election?

While the date of the presidential

election is set by federal law, the

procedures for voting are gener-

ally controlled at the state level.

That’s why the nation has such

a complicated patchwork of

voting regulations, with some

states allowing early and absen-

tee voting; some permitting

voting by mail or same-day voter

registration; others requiring

certain kinds of identification for

voters; and many states doing

few or none of those things.

Democrats included $3.6 bil-

lion in their latest coronavirus

aid package to help states admin-

ister their elections safely during

the pandemic. Republicans did

not include any such funding in

the proposal they rolled out this

week.

Several states have tried to

make it easier for voters to use

mail-in ballots this year, helping

them to avoid going to polling

places on Election Day. In Michi-

gan, for example, the secretary

of state, Jocelyn Benson, mailed

absentee ballot applications to all

7.7 million registered voters for

the state’s August primary elec-

tion and the November general

election.

Even before this year, five

states — Colorado, Hawaii, Ore-

gon, Utah and Washington —

regularly conducted their elec-

tions almost entirely by mail.

Other states have struggled

with absentee ballots. In New

York, where voters requested

hundreds of thousands more

absentee ballots than in a typical

election, officials are still count-

ing votes more than a month

after Primary Day. Races in the

12th and 15th Congressional

Districts are still unresolved.

That may offer a preview of

what could happen on election

night in November: Unless one

candidate wins in a landslide,

there may be no clear and imme-

diate winner in the presidential

race. But that does not mean that

the election would be fraudulent,

only that it may take more time

to determine the victor.

Is Trump correct that voting by

mail leads to voter fraud?

No.

Numerous studies have shown

that all forms of voting fraud are

very rare in the United States. A

panel that Mr. Trump established

to investigate election corruption

was disbanded in 2018 after it

found no real evidence of fraud.

Experts have said that voting

by mail is less secure than voting

in person, but it is still extremely

rare to see broad cases of voter

fraud.

In Washington, one of the

states that votes almost entirely

by mail, a study conducted by

the Republican secretary of state

found that 142 potential cases of

improper voting in the 2018

election were referred to county

sheriffs and prosecutors for legal

action, out of more than 3.1 mil-

lion ballots cast, which amounted

to roughly 0.004 percent of the

electorate.

One of the most prominent

recent cases of fraud came in

North Carolina’s Ninth Congres-

sional District, where a political

operative was charged with

fraudulently collecting and sub-

mitting absentee ballots in an

effort to manipulate the election

results in favor of the Republican

candidate. But such broad

schemes are likely to be de-

tected, as this one was, experts

say; the district held a do-over

election.

And Mr. Trump himself voted

by mail in the last election.

Reid J. Epstein and Linda Qiu con-

tributed reporting.

CONSTITUTIONAL QUESTIONS

Why the President Lacks the Power to Delay the November Election

By ALEXANDER BURNS

The resistance to this idea among

Republicans is overwhelming.”

Scott Jennings, a Republican

strategist and an adviser to Mr.

McConnell, called Mr. Trump’s

statement “unfocused,” and “inse-

cure,” saying it “separates him

from his own party and most of

mainstream political thought at a

time when he needs to be fully fo-

cused on coronavirus, the econ-

omy, and defining Biden as out of

the mainstream.”

“Republicans,” Mr. Jennings

added, “have reacted correctly by

rejecting the notion of delay.”

To Mr. Jennings and other Re-

publican strategists, Mr. Trump is

playing with fire by suggesting to

his supporters that mail voting

can’t be trusted, given that it may

be the best option for some people

in an era in which almost every ac-

tivity has been changed to combat

the virus’s spread. Making Repub-

lican voters distrust mail voting

could negatively affect not just Mr.

Trump, but a host of down-ballot

candidates.

Facing disastrous economic
news and rising coronavirus
deaths, President Trump on
Thursday floated delaying the
Nov. 3 election, a suggestion that
lacks legal authority and could un-
dermine confidence in an election
that polls show him on course to
lose.
Republican leaders in Con-
gress, who often claim not to have
seen Mr. Trump’s outlandish
statements and tweets and who
infrequently challenge him in
public, promptly and vocally con-
demned any notion that the elec-
tion would be moved.
It was a moment of striking po-
litical isolation for the president,
as Republicans felt no need to de-
fend him, Democrats condemned
him, and three former presidents
gathered in a rare moment togeth-
er, paying tribute at the funeral of
Representative John Lewis of
Georgia.
Mr. Trump is facing about as
dire a run-up to a presidential
election as any incumbent could
imagine: the worst quarter in the
economy on record, an unceasing
health crisis, protests nationwide
and a country paralyzed by the
lack of a financial recovery plan
with no solution in sight — all
compounded by his own inability
to curtail his behavior.
His remarks on Twitter about
the election delay — which he
linked to his baseless claims about
the potential for mail-in voter
fraud — were one of the few clear
signs that the president now real-
izes how deep a hole he has dug
for himself in his re-election effort.
Aides have described him as
pained by the widespread rejec-
tion he is seeing in public opinion
polls, even as he continues with
self-sabotaging behavior rather
than taking steps that might help
him, like getting involved in nego-
tiations for a deal on Capitol Hill to
lift the economy.
“With Universal Mail-In Voting
(not Absentee Voting, which is
good), 2020 will be the most IN-
ACCURATE & FRAUDULENT
Election in history,” Mr. Trump
wrote. “It will be a great embar-
rassment to the USA. Delay the
Election until people can properly,
securely and safely vote???”
Mr. Trump later pinned the
tweet at the top of his Twitter feed,
ensuring people would continue to
see it. Hours later, despite warn-
ings from his campaign officials
that delays are likely in tabulating
results on Nov. 3, Mr. Trump said
in a separate tweet, “Must know
Election results on the night of the
Election, not days, months or even
years later!”
That second statement reflects
a concern that Democrats have
given voice to — that Mr. Trump
will try to focus on the same-day
voting tallies to claim victory,
even when the full results may be
unknown for days.
At a late-afternoon briefing
with reporters, Mr. Trump de-
fended the initial tweet, saying
that he feared delays in counting
votes. But he declined to elaborate

on whether he was seriously

proposing moving the election.

Mr. Trump posted the first

tweet shortly after the Commerce

Department announced that the

gross domestic product for the

second quarter of the year had

fallen precipitously by 9.5 per-

cent, reflecting the widespread

shutdown of businesses begin-

ning in March to combat the

spread of the coronavirus.

Mr. Trump, who often tests the

boundaries of his authority, has in-

creasingly used public comments

to lay groundwork for arguing

that the election results are illegit-

imate if he loses. Though he does

not have the constitutional au-

thority to unilaterally change the

date of the election, his tweet

prompted a now-familiar round of

assertions about what his true in-

tention was with his statement.

With Mr. Trump, that is fre-

quently a guessing game. The

president has often posted re-

marks on Twitter that are aimed

at sparking a reaction from peo-

ple. At other times, he posts in re-

action to what he sees on cable

news shows. And sometimes he

tries to change what those shows

are focusing on with his tweets, of-

fering a diversion.

Whatever his motivation on

Thursday, senior Republicans and

an array of senators wanted no

part of it, diverging from their

standard practice of walking on

eggshells after a Trump eruption.

“Never in the history of the fed-

eral elections have we not held an

election, and we should go for-

ward,” said Representative Kevin

McCarthy of California, the House

minority leader and an enthusias-

tic supporter of Mr. Trump’s, add-

ing that he understood “the presi-

dent’s concern about mail-in vot-

ing.”

Senator Mitch McConnell, the

majority leader, echoed Mr. Mc-

Carthy, saying “we’ll find a way”

to hold the election on Nov. 3.

Senators Ted Cruz and Marco

Rubio, rivals for the 2016 Republi-

can presidential nomination who

have since become staunch

Trump supporters, both dis-

missed the idea that the date for

the election could change. Senator

Lindsey Graham, Mr. Trump’s

foremost public defender in the

Senate, said there would be a se-

cure vote in November. And offi-

cials in key swing states showed

little interest in engaging on the

topic.

“We’re going to have an elec-

tion, it’s going to be legitimate, it’s

going to be credible, it’s going to

be the same as it’s always been,”

Mr. Rubio told reporters at the

Capitol in Washington.

Mr. Cruz agreed. “I think elec-

tion fraud is a serious problem,” he

said. “But, no, we should not delay

the election.”

People close to Mr. Trump said

that the president has at times dis-

cussed with associates whether

the election can be delayed, and

has been told definitively that

only an amendment to the Consti-

tution could change the date. But

his tweet was discomfiting to most

of his aides, who tried to clean up

his statement later by contending

that he had been referring to the

possibility that the outcome won’t

be known until weeks after the

election.

This is not the first time that Mr.

Trump has raised the idea of

thwarting rules or laws that he

finds objectionable, and he often

fails to follow through. He has re-

peatedly hurled threats, whether

it is defunding universities or

blocking federal aid to states, the

substance of which he has no in-

tent, or capacity, to fulfill.

The president, who did not

serve in government before being

elected to the highest office in the

country, has never fully absorbed

what powers he does and does not

have, or how to wield his author-

ity. What Mr. Trump has always

been mindful of, dating to his time

as a real estate developer, is the

danger of being labeled a failure.

So in response to his weakened

standing in the presidential race,

Mr. Trump has been reaching for

arguments to explain his difficul-

ties this year, repeatedly noting

how the virus undermined the

booming economy for which he

claims credit.

In this vein, any uncertainty

about the balloting offers him an

opening to raise questions about

the legitimacy of his loss, regard-

less of whether he challenges the

results.

Trump-weary Republicans may

make that a more difficult task,

however.

Representative Liz Cheney, Re-

publican of Wyoming, a sometime

critic of the president who is eye-

ing the top ranks of the House

leadership, said: “We are not

moving the date of the election.

”The reality is,” Mr. Jennings

said, “he needs every Republican

vote there is, and he needs them

any way he can get them, no mat-

ter how they are cast.”

The president has repeatedly

railed against mail voting, creat-

ing outlandish scenarios of ballot

theft to undermine confidence in

the practice.

Even for Mr. Trump, suggesting

a delay in the election was an ex-

traordinary breach of presidential

decorum that will increase the

chances that he and his core sup-

porters don’t accept the legitima-

cy of the election should he lose to

former Vice President Joseph R.

Biden Jr. Mr. Trump’s comments

about the election looked all the

more discordant coming just

hours before the funeral for Mr.

Lewis, a Democrat who as a

young man was beaten and jailed

as he advocated voting rights.

Without mentioning his succes-

sor by name, former President

Barack Obama used his eulogy of

Mr. Lewis to rebuke Mr. Trump.

Speaking from the pulpit of At-

lanta’s Ebenezer Baptist Church,

where the Rev. Dr. Martin Luther

King Jr. was reared and eventu-

ally preached, Mr. Obama lashed

Mr. Trump for “even undermining

the Postal Service in the run-up to

an election that’s going to be de-

pendent on mail-in ballots so peo-

ple don’t get sick.”

For all the eye-rolling dismiss-

als among Republicans, Mr.

Trump’s remarks irritated and

embarrassed his allies — and rep-

resented the latest illustration of

how he is not only complicating

his own campaign but also com-

pounding his party’s challenge

this fall.

Already burdened with an ad-

ministration that only briefly at-

tempted a full-scale response to a

public health crisis that has sick-

ened millions of Americans and

killed over 150,000 while ravaging

the economy, Republicans on the

ballot are increasingly being un-

dermined by Mr. Trump’s re-

sponse to his misfortune.

Just this week, after he finally

bowed to pressure to urge people

to take virus safety measures, the

president lamented how unpopu-

lar he is compared with his high-

profile medical advisers.

And then he publicized an on-

line video promoting an unproven

virus treatment from a doctor who

has previously opined on alien

DNA and the impact of having sex

with demons in one’s dreams.

His growing desperation to

close the gap with Mr. Biden has

also caused headaches for Repub-

licans because he has increas-

ingly employed race-baiting lan-

guage that few in the party care to

defend.

“I am happy to inform all of the

people living their Suburban Life-

style Dream that you will no long-

er be bothered or financially hurt

by having low income housing

built in your neighborhood,” he

tweeted on Wednesday.

Checking patients at a testing site in Tulsa, Okla., below right. The virus and national unrest, including in Portland, Ore., late Wednes-

day, below, has damaged President Trump’s re-election bid and increased calls for mail voting, which he has repeatedly attacked.

DOUG MILLS/THE NEW YORK TIMES

BRANDON BELL FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES CHRIS CREESE FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES

ALL EYES ON NOV. 3

Isolated and Sinking,

Trump Escalates Push

To Delegitimize Election

This article is by Maggie Ha-
berman , Jonathan Martin and Reid
J. Epstein.

A suggestion that

drew unusually firm

resistance from

Republicans.

Luke Broadwater, Emily Cochrane
and Matt Stevens contributed re-
porting.

BD