The Times - UK (2020-07-31)

the times | Friday July 31 2020 1GM 25

Comment

Greta’s message of doom is religion not reality

Scientific innovation and a projected fall in population levels mean there is no reason to panic about global warming

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will have their populations more

than halved. This threatens to

undermine one of the foundations of

climate alarmism: the assumption

that there are too many people and,

by breeding and consuming

resources, we will all soon destroy

Mother Earth.

The prospect of population decline

could be bad news for the

fundraising efforts of the Greta crew

if it becomes clear that climate

change is even more manageable

than thought. I doubt that hardline

climate campaigners will for one

second allow this to dilute the purity

of their doom-laden message,

though. They have founded a

religion and anything that distracts

from it is heresy.

In that respect, they have much in

common with calls for a social justice

revolution. The best parallel for both

of these is perhaps with the 16th and

17th centuries and the spread of

Puritanism, a campaign to purify

worship and signal virtue. As the

more extreme Puritans knew,

declaring the apocalypse — a simple

message — is strangely seductive

and exciting.

Once again, on climate, the less

intoxicating and more cheeringly

mundane reality is that human

beings are ingeniously adaptive.

We’ll find a way through if we all

keep our heads.

designed” carbon tax and reduced

emissions but also more adaptation

of the kind that, unheralded, is

already happening.

For 150 years sea levels have been

rising and we have adapted by

improving coastal protection. We’re

learning more about rivers and flood

protection too. On heatwaves,

economic growth will help to pay for

better and more fuel-efficient air

conditioning. Cities can be adapted

with more green spaces. Even

something as simple as ensuring that

roofs and roads are lighter in colour

— not black, which absorbs heat and

warms urban areas — can make a

difference.

For the sin of deviation from the

apocalyptic consensus, The New York

Times ( woke bible and host of the

Greta event at Davos in January)

unleashed the eminent economist

Joseph Stiglitz to lambast Mr

Lomborg, who has since responded

with an amusing line-by-line

demolition of Mr Stiglitz’s claims.

But what may make the biggest

difference to the debate is population

decline. A study published this

month by the Department of Health

Metrics Sciences at the University of

Washington in Seattle suggested that

a declining global fertility rate would

cause population levels to plummet

from 2064. Twenty-three countries

including Japan, Thailand and Spain

that overreaction by governments

will turn voters against any kind of

environmental policy. It need not be

this way. With intelligent use of

technology and mitigation measures,

mankind is more than capable of

adapting to warmer conditions.

This is one of the points made in

Bjorn Lomborg’s important new

book False Alarm: How Climate

Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts

the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.

Mr Lomborg is a long-standing

environmentalist regarded as a

heretic by hardliners because he is an

optimist who says that humanity is

not doomed.

Global warming is happening, he

says, but populations have been

“scared witless” into thinking that it

means the end of life on Earth. “The

rhetoric on climate change has

become ever more extreme and less

moored to the actual science,” he

says. “The science shows us that fears

of a climate apocalypse are

unfounded. Global warming is real,

but it is not the end of the world. It is

a manageable problem.”

Lomborg advocates a “well-

I

n January the great and not so

good of the corporate elite

gathered at Davos for another

telling off from Greta Thunberg.

“One year ago I came to Davos

and told you that our house is on

fire,” the climate activist reminded

delegates. “I said I wanted you to

panic.” In the intervening year they

had not panicked enough, she said.

Although the meeting of the World

Economic Forum was dedicated to

creating a “Cohesive and Sustainable

World”, and corporate culture has

gone obsessively green, the naughty

capitalists and greedy governments

refused to end the use of fossil fuels

instantly. The rotters refused to

extinguish commercial lifestyles to

save the planet from imminent

immolation.

Ironically, even as the high

priestess of the Extinction Rebellion

religion preached her sermon, Covid-

19 was sweeping in from China and

weeks later would shut down the

world economy.

Since then we have all been

treated to a live experiment in what

happens when economic activity is

cut by 25 per cent. While there are

undoubted upsides and lessons to be

learnt about cleaner air in cities, the

downside is looming mass

unemployment, the ruin of the

global aviation industry and

worsening health and educational

inequalities.

This is not enough for Extinction

Rebellion campaigners who want to

go even further in shutting down

activity. Earlier this month,

Thunberg set out in an open letter

a list of demands that, if

implemented, would make the

economic effects of Covid-19 seem

mild. Her co-signatories included

assorted celebrities, activists and,

inevitably, Coldplay. Climate

catastrophists are clearly keen to get

the alarmist show back on the road,

perhaps because they have been

eclipsed by the pandemic.

I am not someone who denies that

protecting the environment is

important. Cleaner air is required.

When it comes to more efficient

energy, less wasteful consumption

and rewilding our countryside, I’m

all for it. But the hysteria of the XR

crew, amplified by the media, is

counterproductive because it

frightens people and could lead to

panicked policy-making. The risk is

As extreme Puritans

knew, declaring the

apocalypse is seductive

Iain

Martin

@iainmartin1