The Times - UK (2020-07-31)

8 2GM RM Friday July 31 2020 | the times

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People with coronavirus symptoms

have been told to isolate for longer

under toughened guidance designed to

stop infection spreading as the health

secretary warned of “a second wave

rolling across Europe”.

Chris Whitty, chief medical officer

for England, said there was a “real pos-

sibility” of passing on the virus more

than a week after becoming ill and that

people must isolate for ten days instead

of seven. Citing concern about the eas-

ing of lockdown measures and the need

to keep cases low going into winter,

Professor Whitty said: “It is now the

correct balance of risk to extend the

self-isolation period from seven to ten

days for those in the community who

have symptoms or a positive test result.

“Evidence, although still limited, has

strengthened and shows that people

with Covid-19 who are mildly ill and are

recovering have a low but real possibili-

ty of infectiousness between seven and

nine days after illness onset.” The deci-

A businessman leading the fight

against lockdown measures has said

that his movement gives its supporters

something to live for.

Simon Dolan, an aviation and

accountancy tycoon who is said to be

worth £200 million, has launched an

appeal after being denied permission to

seek a judicial review over the regula-

tions imposed in March.

He expects to find out next week if he

can appeal and if he is successful will

invest as much as half a million pounds

fighting the case.

He has raised almost £230,000 from

supporters and will add the balance. He

says that the case could cost as much as

£750,000.

Mr Dolan, 51, said: “I feel a big sense

of responsibility. I get hundreds of

messages a day and I’ve had more than

one suicide note. I’ve had 30 or 40

people write to me to say, ‘Without you

I don’t know what I would’ve done.’ I’ve

always swam against the tide my whole

News Coronavirus

Britain is worst in Europe for

Kaya Burgess

England hit hardest by Covid-

France Netherlands Wales Scotland England

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%

Increase in relative age-standardised mortality rate for the

period January 3 to May 29 compared with five-year average

Jan 31 First case of coronavirus

confirmed in the UK

March 5 First death in UK

March 16 The prime minister

encourages social distancing

March 23 The prime minister

announces UK-wide lockdown

March 27 Boris Johnson tests

positive for Covid-

April 27 Mr Johnson returns to

Downing Street

May 10 “Stay at home”

becomes “stay alert”

June 3 More pupils return to

school and people can meet in

groups of six

Key Covid dates

Analysis

E

xcess deaths

sprout across

Europe like

boils —

angry but

contained. Except,

that is, for Britain,

where a visualisation

of the continent’s

epidemic shows a

different pattern (Tom

Whipple writes).

In its report on

country comparisons

of fatalities, the Office

for National Statistics

has an animation

showing the effects of

the virus region by

region, week by week.

In early March

there is a nasty spot

that emerges and

reddens in northern

Italy, as excess deaths

reach nine times their

seasonal average.

Even as it grows,

another starts to rage

in Paris and Madrid.

Stockholm’s is longer-

lasting, but never the

most intense. Spain’s

is big enough that,

centred on Madrid, it

expands to fill most of

the plains. At its peak,

Madrid was seeing

five times its expected

deaths.

Britain’s outbreak

begins in London, but

soon there is another

spot, and another. At

the peak, in late April,

they have merged into

one with no clear

centre. None reaches

the intensity of, say,

Madrid or Bergamo,

but together they

almost fill the map.

Whether this is a

result of late

lockdown, of mass

gatherings such as

Cheltenham or of

returning tourists, the

consequences are

clear. In no other

European country is

there so clearly a true

nationwide pandemic.

This spread seems

to explain England’s

ranking as the worst

overall performer on

excess deaths, and so

in the pandemic.

But there is a

caveat. From the

beginning, statisticians

considered excess

deaths to be the best

way of assessing each

country’s successes

and failures. Rather

than worrying about

whether Belgium

counts care home

deaths and Spain does

not, you can look at

this figure, which

counts mortality

above that expected

for the time of year.

But no measure is

perfect, and for all its

simplicity excess

deaths can be

misleading. One of

the idiosyncrasies is

that, in much of

Europe, a region had

to have a lot of excess

deaths before they

counted as “excess”.

At the start of 2020

many countries,

including Britain, had

relatively low

mortality compared

with previous years —

possibly due to a weak

flu season.

Despite a

devastating pandemic,

according to the

statistics France has

just 0.2 per cent more

deaths than normal,

and in January it was

on track to have

3-4 per cent fewer.

Now, with the first

wave over, countries

are returning to trend,

with fewer people

dying than normal.

But as cases tick up

almost everywhere,

few expect this calm to

remain.

challenge. In his

judgment he said

that in the “possibly

unique” circum-

stances of the global

pandemic it would

be “impossible” for

the court to find the

measures “dispropor-

tionate”.

Britain had the worst death rate of any

country in Europe from the pandemic,

official figures showed for the first time

yesterday.

The Office for National Statistics

(ONS) said Britain had more excess

deaths over the first half of the year

than anywhere else on the Continent.

Challenged on the rate, Boris John-

son said there had been “massive

success” in bringing deaths down. The

prime minister tried to use the data to

urge the nation to keep its “discipline”

against the virus. He told the public not

to “delude” themselves by thinking that

they could relax social distancing.

Matt Hancock, the health secretary,

appeared to shift some of the blame for

the high death toll away from the hand-

ling of the pandemic and on to long-

standing health factors. Jonathan Ash-

worth, the shadow health secretary,

said the report was “devastating”.

The rate of “excess deaths”, a measure

of how many extra deaths there were

during the pandemic compared with

the average over the previous five years,

was studied across the Continent to

provide the most robust way of making

international comparisons and account

for differences in the way deaths caused

directly by Covid-19 are recorded.

Between January 3 and May 29,

England had 7.55 per cent more deaths

than the five-year average, making it

the worst hit of the 23 countries studied.

Spain was in second place with 6.65 per

cent and Scotland in third with 5.11 per

cent. Wales was fifth and Northern Ire-

land was eighth. Analysts said that high

death rates in the UK continued “well

into May and June... in contrast, conti-

nental Europe saw excess mortality

return to normal levels by May”.

The ONS said that the Italian city of

Bergamo had the highest individual

peak in Europe, with a death rate at 848

per cent of the five-year average in the

week to March 20. Among big cities,

Madrid had the highest peak of 432 per

cent in the week to March 27. In the UK,

the highest local peak of excess deaths

was lower, at 356 per cent of the normal

rate in Brent, northwest London, in the

week ending April 17. Among large Brit-

ish cities Birmingham had the highest

with 250 per cent in the same week.

In Spain the death rate peaked at 2.

times its usual level; in the UK it peaked

at 2.1 times. The ONS said: “While

England did not have the highest peak

mortality, it did have the longest con-

tinuous period of excess mortality of

any country compared, resulting in it

having the highest levels of excess mor-

tality in Europe for the period.” It added

that the excess mortality had been

widespread, “from Cornwall to Shet-

land and everywhere in between”.

The number of excess deaths in

England and Wales has finally fallen

below average.

Charles Tallack, a director at the

Health Foundation think tank, said:

“We must urgently understand not just

how the UK differs from its neighbours,

but also why.” Factors such as differen-

ces across Europe in the prevalence of

obesity and underlying health condi-

tions could play a factor, he said.

Speaking to the Royal College of Phy-

sicians, Mr Hancock said: “We went into

this crisis in worse health than some of

our peers... and this left us more vulner-

able. This is not the only factor that

explains our relatively high mortality

rates during the pandemic. Far from it.

But nor is it a factor that any responsible

government could just ignore.”

Mr Ashworth said: “The government

needs to urgently learn lessons.”

Ed Conway, page 24

Anti-lockdown campaign raises £230,

life. It’s only failure if you give up. Even

in business I’ve been a bit of a loner.

“The impact of lockdown is going to

be huge, I believe by January or Feb-

ruary we will have the best part of six or

seven million people unemployed.

What will that do? Lead to civil unrest?

“The number of excess deaths will be

huge because people are not getting

screened for cancer or heart problems.

“Doing this doesn’t faze me, it’s

strange but I find it cathartic — as if I’m

able to do something.”

Mr Dolan’s legal claim is against Matt

Hancock, the health secretary, and

Gavin Williamson, the education

secretary.

He owns Jota Aviation, a charter

company based in London, and said

that the measures were a “dis-

proportionate breach of funda-

mental rights and freedoms”

protected by the European Con-

vention on Human Rights.

In a ruling at the High Court this

month, Mr Justice Lewis refused

permission for a full hearing of the

Mr Dolan founded Keep Britain

Free, an anti-lockdown movement

which held a protest against masks at

Hyde Park in London this month.

Demonstrators carried signs reading “I

will not be masked, tested, tracked” and

“No mask”.

As well as being anti-lockdown Mr

Dolan opposes mandatory masks in

shops. They are also opposed by the

journalists Isabel Oakeshott, Toby

Young and James Delingpole, who has

taken selfies in supermarkets without a

mask and posted them on Twitter.

Young has founded a libertarian

group called the Free Speech Union

and a website, Lockdown Sceptics,

which has become a haven for people

who disagree with the measures.

The Free Speech Union is seeking a

judicial review of the broadcasting

regulator Ofcom over guidance it gave

to broadcasters about the way they

report material regarding public policy.

Young believes that the guidance stops

broadcasters reporting legitimate con-

cerns about lockdown.

Ben Ellery

James Delingpole and

Simon Dolan oppose

wearing masks in shops

Hanco ck

Chris Smyth Whitehall Editor