Barron's - USA (2020-08-03)

M34 BARRON’S August 3, 2020

FEDERALRESERVEDATABANK

Prev. Year

MemberBank Latest Week Ago

ReserveChgs.(Mil.$) Week Change Change

OneweekendedJul29:

U.S.Gov'tsecurities:

Bought outright 6,233,390 + 10,484 +2,627,056

Federalagencysecur:

Bought outright 2,347 .... ....

Reservebankcredit:

Primary Credit 4,147 -458 + 4,145

Secondary Credit .... .... ....

Seasonal Credit 34 + 6 -92

Float -271 -97 + 69

OtherF.R.Assets 40,699 + 1,366 + 11,815

TotalFedCredit# 6,916,542 + 4,383 +3,164,944

Goldstock 11,041 .... ....

SDRCertif.Accounts 5,200 .... ....

Treas.Curr.Outst. 50,457 + 14 + 502

Total 7,004,737 + 4,746 +3,166,244

Currencyincirc 1,988,357 + 5,322 + 242,670

Treas.CashHldgs 47 + 2 -127

Treas.FedDeposits 1,816,687 + 11,743 +1,652,924

ForeignFedDeposits 16,224 -7 + 10,969

OtherFedDeposits 189,752 + 5,900 + 135,609

OtherFRliab/cap 48,118 -1,040 + 3,239

Totalfactors 4,389,465 + 21,254 +2,085,495

ReservesF.R.banks 2,615,272 -16,508 +1,080,749

FgnholdU.S.debt 3,407,393 + 5,080 -55,466

ReserveAggr(Mil.$sa) Latest Prev. Wk.% Year

TwoWksEnded Jul29: Wk. Week Chg. Ago

TotalReserves: 2,623,526 2,795,785 -6.16 1,593,012

Nonborrowed Res # 2,531,099 2,701,459 -6.31 1,592,885

Required Res ## 0 0 .... 208,086

ExcessReserves: 2,623,526 2,795,785 -6.16 1,384,926

Borrowed Reserves 92,428 94,326 -2.01 127

Free Reserves ### 2,531,098 2,701,459 -6.31 1,384,799

MonetaryBase 4,609,222 4,772,539 -3.42 3,271,909

#Fedsupplyofpermanentreservesprovided.

##Demandforreservestobackdeposits.

### Free reserves equal excess reserves minus discount window bor-

rowingsotherthanextendedcredit.Freereservesareshorthandmethod

ofdeterminingthedegreeofeaseofFedpolicy,orwhentheyarenegative

netborrowedreserves,tightness.

GOLD&SILVERPRICES

Year

Handy&Harman 7/31 7/24 Ago

Gold,troyounce 1964.90 1902.10 1441.75

Silver,troyounce 24.10 22.66 16.31

Baseforpricinggoldandsilvercontentsofshipmentsandfor

makingrefiningsettlement.

Price Premium Premium

Coins $ %

Krugerrand 2046.62 78.72 4.00

MapleLeaf 2066.30 98.40 5.00

MexicanPeso 2380.70 8.00 0.34

AustriaCrown 1931.94 3.00 0.16

AustriaPhil 2066.30 98.40 5.00

U.S.Eagles 2066.30 98.40 5.00

Premiumistheamountoverthevalueofthegoldcontentinthe

coin.SourceManfra,Tordella&Brookes,Inc.

Bullionspotgoldprice1967.90

BARRON'SGOLDMININGINDEX

12-Month Year Week%

High Low 7/30 7/23 Ago Chg.

864.82391.56 Gold mining 864.82 836.01530.28 +3.45

INVESTORSENTIMENTREADINGS

High bullish readings in the Consensus stock index or in the

Market Vane stock index usually are signs of Market tops; low

ones, market bottoms.

Last 2Weeks 3Weeks

Week Ago Ago

ConsensusIndex

Consensus Bullish Sentiment 57% 56% 54%

Source:ConsensusInc.,P.O.Box520526,Independence,Mo.

Historicaldataavailableat(816)[email protected]

AAIIIndex

Bullish 20.2% 26.1% 30.8%

Bearish 48.5 46.8 45.4

Neutral 31.3 27.1 23.8

Source:AmericanAssociationofIndividualInvestors,

625N.MichiganAve.,Chicago,Ill.60611(312)280-0170.

MarketVane

Bullish Consensus 40% 43% 41%

Source:MarketVane,P.O.Box90490,

Pasadena,CA91109(626)395-7436.

TIMGroupMarketSentiment

Indicator 43.3% 49.4% 48.2%

Source:TIMGroup,3ColumbusCircle,Suite1592

NewYork,NY10019(844)[email protected]

WEEKLYBONDSTATISTICS

Last Prev. YrAgo

Week Week Week

NewOfferings,(mil$)(v)

Corporate (z) 19,547 r16,252 26,616

Municipal (z) 6,810 r13,591 5,636

BestGradeBonds-y(Barron's index of 10 high-grade

corporate bonds.)

1.55 1.55 2.82

Interm-GradeBonds-y(Barron's index of 10

medium-grade corporate bonds.)

3.12 3.19 3.63

ConfidenceIndex(High-grade index divided by inter-

mediate-grade index; decline in latter vs. former generally

indicates rising confidence, pointing to higher stocks.)

49.6 48.7 77.8

OtherConfidenceIndicators:

BloombergBarclaysUSLongTreasury*(This

index measures the performance of fixed-rate, nominal US

Treasuries with at least 10 years to maturity. Jan. 1, 1973=100.)

5078.11 5034.16 3970.21

BloombergBarclaysUSCredit(This index

includes all publicly issued, fixed-rate, non-convertible, invest-

ment-grade, dollar-denominated, SEC-registered corporate

debt. All issues have at least one year to maturity and outstand-

ing par value of at least $250 million. Jan. 1, 1973=0.) (v)

3342.02 3337.91 3001.33

RyanLabsTreasuryIndex(Index of total return from

active Treasury notes and bonds. Dec. 31, 1996=100.)

340.69 339.00 295.67

Last Prev. YrAgo

Week Week Week

BondBuyer20BondIndex(Index of yields of 20

general obligation municipal bonds.)

2.09 2.10 3.42

BondBuyerMunicipalBondIndex(Index of 40

actively-traded tax-exempt bonds; component issues are

changed regularly to keep the index a current picture of the

market. Source: The Bond Buyer

3.53 3.54 3.66

Stock/BondYieldGap-s(Difference between yield on

highest-grade corporate bonds and yield on stocks on the DJIA.)

+.78 +.77 –.57

YieldonDJEqualWeightUSCorpBondIdx:

Corp Bonds, (y) 2.06 2.06 3.08

v-WeekendedThursday.y-Yieldtomaturity,weekendedThursday.

z-Source:Refinitiv.*BarclaysT-BondIndexdiscontinuedbyfirm.

MONEYSUPPLY

MoneySupply(Bil.$) Latest Prev. Yr.AgoYOY%Chg

WeekendedJuly20

M1(seas.adjusted) 5,345.7r5,283.23,875.5 37.94

M1(notadjusted) 5,314.4r5,115.33,853.7 37.90

M2(seas.adjusted) 18,318.2r18,388.414,881.1 23.10

M2(notadjusted) 18,272.1r18,367.614,801.9 23.44

WeekendedJuly22

M1Mult.Replacement(St.LouisFed) 1.153 1.072 1.180 -2.29

MonthlyMoneySupply

MonthendedJune

M1(seas.adjusted) r5,210.0r5,031.93,823.9 36.25

M2(seas.adjusted) r18,166.817,870.514,770.6 22.99

GOLD PERFORMANCE

-30

-15

0

15

30

45

60

S O N D J F M A M JJ

Barron's Gold Mining Index (864.82)

s

Handy & Harman Gold Price

s

Shine On:Worries, low rates, and a

weak dollar lifted gold 4% this week, to

$1,965 an ounce. It’s up 30% this year.

ARMSINDEX

TheArmsindex,alsoknownastheshorttermtradingindex,isanumber

derivedbydividingonequotientintoanotherquotient.Thenumeratorin

the index is the number of advancing stocks divided by the number of

declining stocks. As of 3/14/11, the denominator in the index is now the

compositevolumeofadvancingstocksdividedbythecompositevolumeof

decliningstocks.

Daily 7/27 7/28 7/29 7/30 7/31

NYSE 1.29 .80 1.34 1.76 1.25

NYSEAmerican 1.05 .86 2.20 .97 .52

Nasdaq .80 .52 1.38 .71 .52

SouthKorea(Won) .0008375 .0008322 1194.09 1201.59

SriLanka(Rupee) .0054 .0054 185.6800 185.6800

Sweden(Krona) .1139 .1131 8.7826 8.8412

Switzerland(Franc) 1.0948 1.0861 .9134 .9207

Taiwan(Dollar) .03407 .03394 29.351 29.465

Thailand(Baht) .03199 .03165 31.260 31.600

Turkey(New Lira)-d .1434 .1460 6.9721 6.8483

Ukraine(Hryvnia) .0360 .0358 27.7500 27.9500

U.K.(Pound) 1.3085 1.2795 .7642 .7816

Uruguay(Peso) ...... .. ...... .. ...... .. ...... ..

Financial .02350 .02350 42.555 42.545

----

Euro 1.1781 1.1655 .8489 .8580

SpecialDrawingRights(SDR)arebasedonexchangeratesfortheU.S.,

British,andJapanesecurrencies.Source:InternationalMonetaryFund.

a-RussianCentralBankrate.b-governmentrate.d-rebasedasofJan.1,

2005.y-floatingrate.

Market Laboratory

MONEYRATES

Latest Prev. YrAgo

Week Week

DiscountRate(NY) 0.25 0.25 2.75

PrimeRate(base) 3.25 3.25 5.25

FedFundsRate

Avg effective offer 0.09 0.09 2.13

Avg weekly auction-c 0.09 0.09 2.40

T-BillsRate

13 weeks, Coupon Yield 0.106 0.122 2.116

13 weeks, Auction Rate 0.105 0.120 2.070

26 weeks, Coupon Yield 0.132 0.132 2.090

26 weeks, Auction Rate 0.130 0.130 2.035
Avg weekly auction-c 0.12 0.13 2.05

BrokerCallRate 2.00 2.00 4.00

BankersAcceptances

1 month 0.13 0.13 2.23

2 months 0.15 0.15 2.22

3 months 0.25 0.25 2.20

6 months 0.30 0.30 2.15

EuroLiborRate

1 month -0.502 -0.503 -0.434

3 months -0.445 -0.435 -0.412

6 months -0.443 -0.416 -0.419

12 months -0.330 -0.306 -0.354

LiborInterbankRate

1 month 0.15 0.17 2.23

3 months 0.25 0.25 2.24

6 months 0.31 0.32 2.13

12 months 0.45 0.46 2.12

ForeignPrimeRates

Canada 2.45 2.45 3.95

Germany 0.00 0.00 0.00

Japan 1.475 1.475 1.475

Switzerland 0.00 0.00 0.50

Britain 0.10 0.10 0.75

OtherMoneyRates

Fannie Mae Home Loan:

30-Year Fixed Conv 1.79 1.94 3.11

Bank money market-z 0.11 0.12 0.24

Interest Checking-z 0.05 0.05 0.08

6-Month Certif-z 0.22 0.22 0.63

12-Month Certif-z 0.33 0.36 0.91
30 Month Accounts-z 0.31 0.31 0.95

5-Year Certificates-z 0.50 0.53 1.29

U.S. Savings EE Bonds:

Long-Term (5yrs+) 0.10 0.10 0.10

c-Annualizedyields,adjustedforconstantmaturity,reportedby

theFederalReserveonaweeklyaveragebasis.
Sources:TullettPreboninformation,Ltd.
Factset.z-Bankrate.com.

1.15

1.00

0.85

0.70

0.55

0.40

4.95

4.10

3.25

2.40

1.55

0.70

S&P 100 CBOE

A S O N D J F M A M J J

CBOE PUT/CALL RATIO vs S&P 100

Source:CBOE

Readings in the CBOE equity put-call ratio of 60:100

and in the S&P 100 of 125:100 are considered bullish,

for instance. Bearish signals flash when the equity

put-call level reaches the vicinity of 30:100 and the

index ratio hits 75:100.

S&P 100

s CBOEs

FOREIGNEXCHANGE

Friday,July31,2020

TheNewYorkforeignexchangemid-rangeratesarequotedat5

p.m. Eastern time by Tullett Prebon. Retail transactions pro-

vide fewer units of foreign currency per dollar.

Foreign Foreign U.S.$in U.S.$in

Currency Currency Foreign Foreign

inU.S.$ inU.S.$ Currency Currency

Country Fri. LastFri. Fri. LastFri.

Argentina(Peso)-y .0138 .0139 72.4072 71.8478

Australia(Dollar) .7142 .7105 1.4002 1.4075

Bahrain(Dinar) 2.6524 2.6520 .3770 .3771

Brazil(Real) .1915 .1911 5.2232 5.2322

Bulgaria(Lev) .6023 .5959 1.6604 1.6781

Canada(Dollar) .7457 .7454 1.3411 1.3417

Chile(Peso) .001322 .001292 756.70 774.20

China(Renminbi) .1434 .1425 6.9752 7.0173

Colombia(Peso) .0002679 .0002709 3733.33 3691.20

Croatia(Kuna) .1583230 .1549763 6.32 6.45

Czech.Rep.(Koruna) ...... .. ...... .. ...... .. ...... ..

Commercialrate .04486 .04440 22.289 22.522

Denmark(Krone) .1581 .1566 6.3236 6.3840

EcuadorUSDollar 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000

Egypt(Pound)-y .0626 .0626 15.9864 15.9865

HongKong(Dollar) .1290 .1290 7.7505 7.7513

Hungary(Forint) .003423 .003369 292.14 296.80

Iceland(Krona) .007361 .007375 135.85 135.60

India(Rupee) .01335 .01338 74.922 74.748

Indonesia(Rupiah) .0000685 .0000684 14600 14610

Israel(Shekel) .2937 .2931 3.4050 3.4121

Japan(Yen) .009448 .009425 105.84 106.10

Kazakhstan(Tenge) .002370 .002415 421.97 414.08

Kuwait(Dinar) 3.2715 3.2630 .3057 .3065

Macau(Pataca) .1252 .1251 7.9860 7.9910

Malaysia(Ringgit)-b .2359 .2346 4.2395 4.2625

Mexico(Peso) ...... .. ...... .. ...... .. ...... ..

Floating rate .0449 .0449 22.2783 22.2855

NewZealand(Dollar) .6630 .6642 1.5083 1.5056

Norway(Krone) .1098 .1092 9.1038 9.1556

Oman(Rial) 2.5974 2.5974 .3850 .3850

Pakistan(Rupee) .00597 .00597 167.630 167.403

Philippines(Peso) .02036 .02027 49.117 49.332

Poland(Zloty) .2668 .2645 3.7480 3.7806

Qatar(Rial) .2746 .2746 3.6410 3.6421

Russia(Ruble)-a .01344 .01395 74.383 71.670

SaudiArabia(Riyal) .2666 .2666 3.7504 3.7508

Singapore(Dollar) .7274 .7232 1.3747 1.3827

SouthAfrica(Rand) .0586 .0600 17.0714 16.6609

Foreign Foreign U.S.$in U.S.$in

Currency Currency Foreign Foreign

inU.S.$ inU.S.$ Currency Currency

Country Fri. LastFri. Fri. LastFri.